Wednesday :: Oct 22, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/22


by CA Pol Junkie

Today's polling report is early and abbreviated because real life is intruding upon my polling addiction. We have two new polls out from Mason-Dixon. One shows movement of 5 points in Obama's direction in Virginia and the other has 3 point of movement toward McCain in Florida. Mason-Dixon tends to be friendlier to McCain than most, but some movement in his direction in Florida is probably real.

The current prediction is Obama 367, McCain 171. Colorado is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Indiana is the closest state. Indiana's result really depends on the strength of Obama's organization bringing new voters to the polls in a state which isn't used to being competitive.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +6.5) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +6.2) 286 EV


Mason-Dixon 10/20-21 (9/29-10/1):
Obama 47 (45)
McCain 45 (48)

Ohio (Obama +3.5) 306 EV
Missouri (Obama +3.3) 317 EV
Nevada (Obama +3.3) 322 EV
Florida (Obama +3.1) 349 EV


Mason-Dixon 10/20-21 (10/4-6):
McCain 46 (46)
Obama 45 (48)

North Carolina (Obama +2.5) 364 EV
North Dakota (Obama +1.6) 367 EV
Indiana (McCain +0.2) 171 EV
Montana (McCain +3.7) 160 EV
West Virginia (McCain +4.2) 157 EV
Georgia (McCain +5.5) 152 EV

McCain Base (137 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 10:06 AM :: Comments (18) :: Digg It!