Saturday :: Oct 25, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/25

by CA Pol Junkie

Obama gets all good news in the polls today, with an obscene 12 point lead in Colorado and two polls showing him improving in Ohio. Something has happened in Ohio and Indiana, as Obama has had multiple polls give him his strongest performance in each state in the last week. It's all over but the voting now, as Rasmussen measures each candidate's certain support at Obama 48, McCain 40.

Right now, the conservative estimate is that 7-8 points separate Obama and McCain. FiveThirtyEight expects this to tighten to a 6 point win in the next 10 days. What would happen, though, if those national polls showing a double-digit Obama win were right? The answer is: not much. In 1980, Reagan won by 9.6% but took 44 states in an election that looked like a wave on the map. The problem for Democrats is that the Republican base states are very deep: McCain still leads in 17 states by double-digits and their land area will keep the map of the United States from looking dominantly blue.

If Obama were to win by 14% like in the Pew poll he would win all the closely fought states plus a few extras: Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, and maybe West Virginia and Nebraska's 2nd district. Having North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, and North Dakota go Democratic for the first time in more than a generation would be historic, but the map would still appear to show a divided nation. Obama would have to rely on Democratic dominance in the House and Senate more than the perceived authority of a single color map to deliver on his agenda.

UPDATE: If Obama were to win in a double-digit wave, it looks like there is one more state that would turn blue: Arizona.

The current prediction remains Obama 381, McCain 157. Colorado is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Montana remains the closest state.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +7.7) 273 EV

Public Opinion Strategies 10/21-23 (8/11-13):
Obama 52 (41)
McCain 40 (44)

Virginia (Obama +6.4) 286 EV
Ohio (Obama +5.3) 306 EV

University of Cincinnati 10/18-22 (10/4-8):
Obama 49 (46)
McCain 46 (48)
Public Policy polling 10/22-23 (10/4-5):
Obama 51 (49)
McCain 44 (43)

Nevada (Obama +3.8) 311 EV
Indiana (Obama +3.7) 322 EV
Missouri (Obama +3.5) 333 EV
Florida (Obama +3.2) 360 EV
North Carolina (Obama +2.2) 375 EV
North Dakota (Obama +1.8) 378 EV
Montana (Obama +0.3) 381 EV
Georgia (McCain +4.1) 157 EV
West Virginia (McCain +5.3) 142 EV

McCain Base (137 EV): Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 4:31 PM :: Comments (5) :: Digg It!