Daily Polling Report 10/26
by CA Pol Junkie
Welcome to the competitive states club, Arizona! We have two Democratic polls saying the margin is 2 or 4 points. A neutral poll by Arizona State University will be out in the next day or two which is expected to show tightening from the 7 point margin they measured a month ago. In Virginia and West Virginia, we had polls reinforcing the belief that those states are all but settled in favor of Obama and McCain respectively. Two polls in Missouri have the state as a dead heat - in the last two weeks, four polls have had that race within 1 point while the remaining 5 polls reported Obama leads of 2-8 points. Mason-Dixon reports a McCain lead of 6 points in Georgia. The result there is all a matter of who votes, though, and a 6 point win is just about McCain's best case scenario at this point.
It's hard to overestimate how much people are inspired by Obama. His rallies have drawn 100,000 in St. Louis, 75,000 in Kansas City, and today another 100,000 in Denver. Both Obama and McCain were in Albuquerque yesterday, but Obama drew 45,000 while McCain got "several hundred". Bill Clinton was a very charismatic candidate, but he only drew 35,000 to the same spot where Obama spoke today. Inspiration and excitement matter, because they turn into extra voters on election day and extra volunteers to get out the vote. People sense that this is a historic election with a transformational candidate, and they want to be a part of it. Do you think McCain supporters are excited about getting out the vote or even voting? There is simply no way to win against that massive an enthusiasm gap.
9 days left before we make history!
The current prediction remains Obama 381, McCain 157. Colorado is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Montana remains the closest state.
Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine
Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:
Colorado (Obama +8.2) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +7.3) 286 EV
Public Policy Polling 10/21-23 (10/6-7):
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 43 (43)
Ohio (Obama +5.8) 306 EV
Nevada (Obama +4.3) 311 EV
Indiana (Obama +4.2) 322 EV
Florida (Obama +3.7) 349 EV
Missouri (Obama +2.9) 360 EV
North Carolina (Obama +2.7) 375 EV
North Dakota (Obama +2.3) 378 EV
Montana (Obama +0.8) 381 EV
Arizona (McCain +3.0) 157 EV
Georgia (McCain +3.8) 147 EV
West Virginia (McCain +4.9) 132 EV
Research 2000 10/22-24:
McCain Base (127 EV): Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina
The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.