Monday :: Oct 27, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/27


by CA Pol Junkie

The dominant news of the day is that the race in Virginia is over. Five polls from Virginia were released today giving Obama leads of 7, 8, 9, 104, and 11 points. The Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Virginia gives Obama a 277 vote firewall, which is obviously a very good position when 270 is enough to win the presidency. Three Ohio polls give Obama a 4-5 point lead while two out of three Florida polls give Obama a similar lead there. Three polls each for Missouri and North Carolina rate both states as very tight but with a slight edge overall to Obama. In a bit of good news for McCain, Zogby telephone polls rate Florida as a tossup and give McCain a 6 point lead in Indiana. Rasmussen giving McCain a 5 point lead in Arizona confirms yesterday's results from two Democratic pollsters rating it a 2 or 4 point contest.

We've seen that early voting has been disproportionately Democratic and African-American in many states, but we have some polling data on how those early voters have actually voted:

Arizona: (34% of sample): Obama 47, McCain 46
Indiana (12% of sample): Obama 50%, McCain 46%
Virginia (9% of sample): Obama 67, McCain 30
North Carolina (37% of sample): Obama 63, McCain 36
Georgia (when 18% had voted, now closer to 30%): Obama 52, McCain 46
Florida: (~25% have voted): Obama 60, McCain 40

Florida early voting started strongly Republican thanks to absentee balloting, but strong Democratic in-person early voting is turning it around. Absentee voting has long been a strength of Republican GOTV operations, but this year Democrats have the upper hand.

8 days left before we make history!

The current prediction remains Obama 381, McCain 157. ColoradoVirginia is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Montana remains the closest state.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Virginia (Obama +8.0+7.5) 277 EV


ABC News/Washington Post 10/22-25 (9/18-21):
Obama 52 (49)
McCain 44 (46)
Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
Obama 52.0
McCain 44.8
Rasmussen 10/26 (10/16):
Obama 5451 (54)
McCain 4447 (44)
Virginia Commonwealth Univ. 10/20-22 (5/12-18):
Obama 51 (39)
McCain 40 (47)
Survey USA 10/25-26 (10/18-19):
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 43 (45)

Colorado (Obama +7.3) 286 EV


Rasmussen 10/26 (10/19):
Obama 50 (51)
McCain 46 (46)

Ohio (Obama +5.5) 306 EV


University of Akron 9/24-10/15 (7/??-??):
Obama 44.6 (39.6)
McCain 40.9 (39.9)
Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
Obama 49.7
McCain 45.1
Rasmussen 10/26 (10/19):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 45 (49)

Nevada (Obama +4.3) 311 EV


Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
Obama 48.2
McCain 44.0

Florida (Obama +3.5) 338 EV


Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
Obama 47.2
McCain 46.9
Rasmussen 10/26 (10/19):
Obama 51 (48)
McCain 47 (49)
Suffolk 10/24-26 (9/27-30):
Obama 49 (46)
McCain 44 (42)

Missouri (Obama +2.5) 349 EV


Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
Obama 48.2
McCain 45.7
Rasmussen 10/26 (10/19):
Obama 48 (49)
McCain 47 (45)
Survey USA 10/25-26 (10/11-12):
Obama 48 (51)
McCain 48 (43)

North Dakota (Obama +2.3) 352 EV
North Carolina (Obama +2.2) 367 EV


Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
Obama 49.7
McCain 46.4
Rasmussen 10/26 (10/23):
McCain 49 (50)
Obama 48 (48)
Public Policy Polling 10/25-26 (10/18-19):
Obama 49 (51)
McCain 48 (44)

Indiana (Obama +1.2) 378 EV


Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
McCain 50.2
Obama 44.0

Montana (Obama +0.8) 381 EV
Georgia (McCain +3.8) 157 EV
Arizona (McCain +3.9) 142 EV


Rasmussen 10/26 (9/29):
McCain 51 (59)
Obama 46 (38)

West Virginia (McCain +4.9) 132 EV


Reuters/Zogby 10/24-26:
McCain 50.3
Obama 40.4

McCain Base (127 EV): Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

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