Thursday :: Oct 30, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/30


by CA Pol Junkie

Several sets of polls came out today, giving Obama leads of about 5 points in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and North Carolina. Marist and National Journal haven't done extensive polling to it's hard to tell if they favor one candidate or the other, but their results from Virginia and Colorado are relatively favorable to John McCain, while the three polls out for North Carolina have Obama performing better than he has in the last week or two. More status quo polls from Florida and Indiana show those states as very close, with slight edges to Obama in Florida and to McCain in Indiana. Surveys in Montana and Arizona give McCain a small edge, but they may yet be within range of Obama's superior organization.

5 days left before we make history! By the way, we have to make history, not let it happen. That means Get Out The Vote! Countless dedicated people have spent staggering hours contacting voters by phone and at their doors. Not everyone can ask strangers how they will vote (yes, I've tried it and hated it passionately) so those volunteers are golden and we have them to thank when we save the country and the world by electing Barack Obama. For all they have done to identify who is voting for whom, their work is for naught if we don't get our supporters to the polls! Everyone contact either the Obama campaign or your state/local Democratic Party to find out what you can do because it's happening this weekend through the close of polls on Tuesday. We need to get every single Obama supporter in the country to the polls. Look at the CNN/Time polls for the proof: Obama does better among registered voters than likely voters in each state except North Carolina. We should win Ohio by 10 points and Nevada by 11 if we get all Obama supporters to the polls.

North Carolina, Georgia, and now Florida are proving to be leaders in getting out the Democratic vote early. North Carolina has had more than half the total number of 2004 voters vote early, and the results are still impressive with the Democratic turnout rate 37% higher than for Republicans. Georgia early voting is so strong that it's turning into a true swing state. Democrats trailed Republicans in absentee balloting in Florida but are dominating the in-person early voting and have taken a substantial lead in combined early voting. That doesn't mean Republicans won't show up on election day, but the McCain campaign's job will be alot harder.

The current prediction is Obama 356, McCain 182. Colorado is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Missouri is the closest state, now narrowly for McCain. The states generally shift downward today thanks to McCain's recent gains in the national tracking polls, but today is the first day those gains have been reversed.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +5.5) 273 EV


National Journal/FD 10/23-27 (9/11-15):
Obama 48 (45)
McCain 44 (44)
Marist 10/27-28:
Obama 51
McCain 45

Virginia (Obama +5.4) 286 EV


National Journal/FD 10/23-27 (9/11-15):
Obama 48 (41)
McCain 44 (48)
Marist 10/27-28:
Obama 51
McCain 47

Nevada (Obama +4.5) 291 EV


Research 2000 10/25-28 (10/3-6):
Obama 50 (50)
McCain 45 (43)
CNN/Time 10/23-28 (10/19-21):
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 45 (46)

Ohio (Obama +3.9) 311 EV


CNN/Time 10/23-28 (10/19-21):
Obama 51 (50)
McCain 47 (46)
National Journal/FD 10/23-27 (9/11-15):
Obama 48 (41)
McCain 41 (42)

Florida (Obama +1.6) 338 EV


National Journal/FD 10/23-27 (9/11-15):
Obama 45 (44)
McCain 44 (44)

North Carolina (Obama +0.4) 353 EV


CNN/Time 10/23-28 (10/19-21):
Obama 52 (51)
McCain 46 (47)
National Journal/FD 10/23-27:
Obama 47
McCain 43
Rasmussen 10/29 (10/26):
McCain 50 (48)
Obama 48 (49)

North Dakota (Obama +0.3) 356 EV
Missouri (McCain +0.1) 182 EV
Indiana (McCain +1.3) 171 EV


Research 2000 10/24-28 (10/23-26):
Obama 47 (48)
McCain 47 (47)
Selzer 10/26-28 (9/14-16):
Obama 45.9 (47)
McCain 45.3 (44)
Rasmussen 10/29 (10/6):
McCain 49 (50)
Obama 46 (43)

Montana (McCain +3.5) 160 EV


Rasmussen 10/29 (10/6):
McCain 50 (50)
Obama 46 (43)

Georgia (McCain +5.4) 157 EV
Arizona (McCain +6.7) 142 EV


Mason-Dixon 10/27-28 (8/13-15):
McCain 48 (47)
Obama 44 (41)
CNN/Time 10/23-28:
McCain 53
Obama 46

West Virginia (McCain +7.9) 132 EV

McCain Base (127 EV): Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

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