Friday :: Oct 31, 2008

Daily Polling Report 10/31


by CA Pol Junkie

Today must set a new record: 17 polls in competitive states without any for Florida or Ohio! I am very glad the map has been shaken up this year and we aren't just fighting on the same turf as the last two elections. In Colorado, PPP found that 65% had already voted early and favored Obama 58-41, so that election is basically done already. North Carolina continues to show a narrow lead for Obama, while North Dakota, Missouri, and Indiana are toss-ups. Montana, Georgia, and Arizona continue to have narrow leads for McCain at a time when a narrow lead becomes hard to overcome. I continue to insist that Georgia is closer than it appears because of turnout. On Monday, I will post the results from my analysis using the final early voting statistics in Georgia to show why the race there is a toss-up.

4 days left before we make history! Everyone get involved and do your part to Get Out The Vote!

The current prediction is Obama 356, McCain 182. Colorado is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Missouri is the closest state, still very narrowly for McCain. Obama is at his strongest position in the Gallup tracking poll, and Rasmussen is likely to move favorably tomorrow when Tuesday night's strong McCain results drop out of their average.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +6.7) 273 EV


Public Policy Polling 10/28-30 (10/8-10):
Obama 54 (52)
McCain 44 (42)
ARG 10/28-30 (9/23-25):
Obama 52 (45)
McCain 45 (48)

Virginia (Obama +5.9) 286 EV
Nevada (Obama +5.0) 291 EV
Ohio (Obama +4.4) 311 EV
Florida (Obama +2.1) 338 EV
North Carolina (Obama +1.7) 353 EV


Civitas 10/27-29 (10/18-20):
Obama 47 (48)
McCain 46 (45)
Insider Advantage 10/29:
Obama 48
McCain 48
Elon Univ. 10/27-30 (9/15-16):
Obama 45 (35)
McCain 38 (45)
Research 2000 10/28-30 (10/14-15):
Obama 47 (46)
McCain 45 (44)

North Dakota (Obama +0.1) 356 EV


Research 2000 10/28-29 (10/14-15):
McCain 47 (45)
Obama 46 (45)

Missouri (McCain +0.0) 182 EV


Insider Advantage 10/29:
McCain 50
Obama 47
ARG 10/28-30 (10/4-6):
Obama 48 (46)
McCain 48 (49)

Indiana (McCain +0.7) 171 EV


Survey USA 10/27-30 (10/21-22):
Obama 47 (49)
McCain 47 (45)

Montana (McCain +3.0) 160 EV


ARG 10/28-30 (10/6-8):
McCain 49 (50)
Obama 46 (45)
Research 2000 10/28-30 (10/15-16):
McCain 48 (49)
Obama 44 (45)

Georgia (McCain +4.5) 157 EV


Rasmussen 10/30 (10/22):
McCain 50 (51)
Obama 46 (46)
Research 2000 10/28-30 (10/14-15):
McCain 47 (49)
Obama 44 (43)

Arizona (McCain +4.9) 142 EV


ARG 10/28-30 (9/11-14):
McCain 50 (56)
Obama 46 (39)
Research 2000 10/28-30:
McCain 50
Obama 46

West Virginia (McCain +8.6) 132 EV


Public Policy Polling 10/29-30 (10/16-17):
McCain 55 (50)
Obama 42 (42)

McCain Base (127 EV): Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 5:21 PM :: Comments (8) :: Digg It!