Saturday :: Nov 1, 2008

Daily Polling Report 11/1

by CA Pol Junkie

Sorry for the tardy post. It's pretty much status quo, assuming you ignore the Obama +16 outlier from Ohio University. I better not hear anybody stress over Pennsylvania - Nate Silver explains.

In 3 days we make history! What did you all do today to Get Out The Vote?

The current prediction is Obama 378, McCain 160. Colorado is the state which puts Obama over 270 electoral votes while Indiana is the closest state. Obama has been gaining in the tracking polls the last couple days, and that is enough to push Missouri and Indiana back over to the blue list.

Obama Base (264 EV): California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine

Competitive states, cumulative electoral votes, and new polls:

Colorado (Obama +7.3) 273 EV
Virginia (Obama +6.5) 286 EV
Nevada (Obama +5.7) 291 EV
Ohio (Obama +5.5) 311 EV

Ohio Univ. 10/12-23:
Obama 57
McCain 41

Florida (Obama +2.8) 338 EV

Mason-Dixon 10/29-30 (10/20-21):
Obama 49 (45)
McCain 47 (46)
ARG 10/29-31 (9/23-25):
Obama 50 (47)
McCain 46 (46)
Datamar 10/29-30 (10/25-26):
Obama 47 (49)
McCain 47 (44)

North Carolina (Obama +2.3) 353 EV
North Dakota (Obama +0.8) 356 EV
Missouri (Obama +0.7) 367 EV
Indiana (Obama +0.1) 378 EV

ARG 10/28-31 (9/14-16):
Obama 48 (44)
McCain 48 (47)

Montana (McCain +2.3) 160 EV
Georgia (McCain +3.9) 157 EV
Arizona (McCain +4.2) 142 EV
West Virginia (McCain +7.9) 132 EV

McCain Base (127 EV): Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina

The poll averages are created by a magic spreadsheet. Self-selected (Internet and mail) polls are ignored; no favoritism is done among the remaining pollsters. Polls are adjusted to today's conditions by shifting them by the amount of change in the average of Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls. The weight of polls in the averages decreases geometrically each day such that 7 day old polls have 1/2 weight and 14 day old polls have 1/4 weight. The weight of state tracking polls is divided by the number of days in the sample. This method is very responsive to recent changes in both state and national polling.

CA Pol Junkie :: 8:47 PM :: Comments (6) :: Digg It!