Predictions Time

by Steve Soto

OK, we're down to the last 36 hours or so. We've seen all the despicable tactics and messages, and all the conflicting polls one can stand. It's time for your predictions (with my best guess).

Sorry, no prizes, but let's see who comes closest to the final results.

1. Who will win it all? (Obama)

2. By how much numerically? (5 points)

3. Will Obama come closer to 300 Electoral Votes or 350? (300)

4. How many Senate seats will the Democrats end up with? (57)

5. Tiebreaker: How many seats will the Dems pick up in the House (25)

Some of you may be dismayed by my relatively pessimistic outlook. Simply put, I fear that large numbers of remaining undecided voters will swallow McCain/Palin's "he's a scary black man who wants to tax your ass" arguments. I think the work being done by the two of them in Ohio and Pennsylvania over the weekend will bear fruit for the GOP, and Obama will need victories in Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and elsewhere to offset the damage. It would be particularly sweet if Obama neutered McCain's Rust Belt gains by snatching Florida and North Carolina.

OK, your turn.

Update: Maybe I am being way too pessimistic. Gallup's final pre-election poll shows a rout, with Obama projected to clobber McCain by a 55%-44% margin amongst likely voters, even using Gallup's conservative and traditional likely voter model.