Wednesday :: Nov 5, 2008

Daily Polling Report: The Day After


by CA Pol Junkie

Yesterday was a pretty good day for the pollsters, or at least some of them. The national and most of the state results were within expectations. The poll aggregations also did a good job. The magic spreadsheet called each state correctly except for North Dakota and (apparently) Missouri. North Dakota fooled all the pollsters, who had given Obama the slight advantage, but 538 figured it to be McCain's. My personal prediction of a bit of a wave didn't happen, so Montana and Georgia stayed red. Nevada was the surprise in Obama's favor, as it came in for Obama at a higher percentage than any pollster predicted.

Following is the order in which the states placed from bluest to reddest. Iowa was the state to get Obama to a 269-269 tie but Colorado put him over the top. Missouri will almost certainly be the closest state, and it could still go to Obama after provisional ballots have been counted. Each state also has its trend listed. This indicates whether in 2008 its performance relative to Obama's national average was an improvement over the 2004 performance relative to Kerry's national average.

District of Columbia Result: Obama +86.8% 3 EV Trend: -2.9%
Hawaii Result: Obama +45.9% 7 EV Trend: +28.3%
Vermont Result: Obama +35.8% 10 EV Trend: +6.5%
Rhode Island Result: Obama +28.8% 14 EV Trend: -1.1%
Massachusetts Result: Obama +26.3% 26 EV Trend: -7.9%
New York Result: Obama +25.7% 57 EV Trend: -1.6%
Delaware Result: Obama +25.3% 60 EV Trend: +8.9%
Illinois Result: Obama +25.0% 81 EV Trend: +5.9%
California Result: Obama +24.4% 136 EV Trend: +5.6%
Maryland Result: Obama +23.5% 146 EV Trend: +1.6%
Connecticut Result: Obama +21.8% 153 EV Trend: +2.5%
Maine Result: Obama +17.9% 157 EV Trend: -0.0%
Washington Result: Obama +17.2% 168 EV Trend: +1.1%
Michigan Result: Obama +16.8% 185 EV Trend: +4.6%
New Mexico Result: Obama +15.2% 190 EV Trend: +7.3%
New Jersey Result: Obama +14.8% 205 EV Trend: -0.7%
Wisconsin Result: Obama +14.1% 215 EV Trend: +5.0%
Nevada Result: Obama +12.7% 220 EV Trend: +6.6%
Oregon Result: Obama +14.2% 227 EV Trend: +1.3%
Pennsylvania Result: Obama +10.4% 248 EV Trend: -0.8%
Minnesota Result: Obama +10.5% 258 EV Trend: -1.8%
New Hampshire Result: Obama +10.1% 262 EV Trend: +0.0%
Iowa Result: Obama +9.4% 269 EV Trend: +1.4%
Colorado Result: Obama +6.8% 278 EV Trend: +2.9%
Virginia Result: Obama +4.5% 291 EV Trend: +4.1%
Ohio Result: Obama +4.0% 311 EV Trend: -2.6%
Florida Obama +2.4% 338 EV Trend: -1.2%
Indiana Result: Obama +1.0% 349 EV Trend: +13.1%
North Carolina Result: Obama +0.3% 364 EV Trend: +4.1%
Missouri Result: McCain +0.2% 174 EV Trend: -1.7%
Montana Result: McCain +3.5% 163 EV Trend: +8.8%
Georgia Result: McCain +5.5% 160 EV Trend: +2.5%
South Dakota Result: McCain +8.6% 145 EV Trend: +4.5%
Arizona Result: McCain +8.6% 142 EV Trend: -6.8%
North Dakota Result: McCain +8.9% 132 EV Trend: +10.2%
South Carolina Result: McCain +9.0% 129 EV Trend: -0.4%
Texas Result: McCain +11.9% 121 EV Trend: +2.5%
West Virginia Result: McCain +13.3% 87 EV Trend: -9.1%
Mississippi Result: McCain +13.9% 82 EV Trend: -2.7%
Tennessee Result: McCain +15.3% 76 EV Trend: -9.3%
Kansas Result: McCain +15.7% 65 EV Trend: +1.4%%
Nebraska Result: McCain +16.4% 59 EV Trend: +8.6%
Kentucky Result: McCain +16.6% 54 EV Trend: -5.3%
Louisiana Result: McCain +19.0% 46 EV Trend: -13.1%
Arkansas Result: McCain +20.4% 37 EV Trend: -19.3%
Alabama Result: McCain +21.8% 31 EV Trend: -4.7%
Alaska Result: McCain +25.9% 22 EV Trend: -8.1%
Idaho Result: McCain +26.1% 19 EV Trend: +3.9%
Utah Result: McCain +29.6% 15 EV Trend: +8.4%
Oklahoma Result: McCain +31.3% 10 EV Trend: -8.9%
Wyoming Result: McCain +33.2% 3 EV Trend: -1.3%

Obama's strengths and weaknesses relative to Kerry coincide with his performance in the primaries. He was particularly strong in the Plains, the Rockies, the west coast, and the south Atlantic states. His weakness is the belt from the Appalachians to the Ozarks. Arkansas is shocking: Kerry did 10 points better there than Obama. A nice graphic showing the trend for each county in the country is here.

CA Pol Junkie :: 8:32 PM :: Comments (14) :: Digg It!