Friday :: Nov 7, 2008

Daily Polling Report: Outstanding Races


by CA Pol Junkie

The dust is settling and President-Elect Obama is working hard on the transition, but there are still many federal races left to be settled. Here is where we stand and how things look for the Democratic team:

President:
Missouri
McCain 1,442,673 (49.5%)
Obama 1,436,814 (49.2%)

There are 7,085 provisional ballots left, mostly from St. Louis and Kansas City where Obama did very well.

Outlook: Provisional ballots skew Democratic since they are disproportionately first time voters, but McCain will almost certainly end up winning the state.

Nebraska 2nd District
McCain 126,303 (49.6%)
Obama 125,734 (49.3%)

10-12,000 early and 5,200 provisional ballots remain to be counted and added to the tally.

Outlook: Obama wins! It's not on the Secretary of State's website yet, but Obama has won 8,434 out of 15,039 votes, putting him ahead by 1,260. Obama now has 365 electoral votes.

For Senate and House races, look below the fold...

Senate
Minnesota
Coleman (R) 1,211,556 (42.0%)
Franken (D) 1,211,335 (42.0%)

Counties have been checking their totals for math errors, and during that process Franken has reduced the margin by several hundred votes down to 221. After the initial checking is done, there will be a statewide recount.

Outlook: Probably the best analogy we have to this is the 2004 Washington governor race. Democrat Christine Gregoire trailed by 261 in the initial vote tally but won by 129 votes in the end. Democrats tend to benefit from recounts because of mistakes made by inexperienced voters. Washington is of a similar size as Minnesota, so if that is a guide Franken probably has a 50/50 chance.

Alaska
Stevens (R) 106,594 (48.1%)
Begich (D) 103,336 (46.6%)

The difference between the results and pre-election polls in Alaska has alot of people scratching their heads wondering if the Democrats came out to vote. There are still 63,000 absentee and early ballots and 18,000 questionable ballots which have yet to be counted.

Outlook: The heck if anyone knows. There are certainly enough outstanding ballots to flip the race to Begich, but since we have no idea why the results are so different from the polls it's hard to make any prediction whatsoever. I wouldn't bet on Begich pulling it out though - my guess is that Alaska just wants a Republican representing them whether it's a convicted felon or his replacement.

Georgia
Chambliss (R) 1,863,606 (49.8%)
Martin (D) 1,752,753 (46.8%)

Georgia law requires a runoff election if no candidate has over 50% of the vote.

Outlook: It took spectacular African-American turnout to get Martin this close. The runoff will be all about getting each side's supporters to the polls. Chambliss will probably be able to rile up his anti-Obama supporters. Martin is by all accounts a great guy, but he's not charismatic enough to get people to bust down the polling place doors to vote for him. I think this will very likely go to Chambliss, unfortunately.

House of Representatives
DailyKos has this covered. VA-02 (Nye (D) vs Drake (R)) was called for the Democrat today. Democrats are in good shape to win 4 of the 6 remaining races.

UPDATE: Kratovil (D) declared winner in Maryland's 1st District!

UPDATE 2: Reichert (R) defeats Burner (D) in Washington's 8th District.

CA Pol Junkie :: 2:30 PM :: Comments (7) :: Digg It!