Wednesday :: Nov 19, 2008

Franken vs. Coleman: The Recount!


by CA Pol Junkie

The political action is in Minnesota today, where many counties have started a hand recount of the ballots. The certified results give Coleman a lead of 215 votes, or just under 0.01%. Recounts tend to favor Democrats because of inexperienced (young) voters not filling out their ballot correctly but still making their vote clear.

I have a spreadsheet which is keeping track of the results as they come in from each county. The results are then extrapolated to the rest of the county. Each candidate's average gain per ballot cast for that candidate is used to extrapolate to those counties with no results. Some rural counties won't even start counting until after Thanksgiving, but we should have a good idea of where things stand as results come in from Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth. Below I will have updates of the current margin and spreadsheet projections of the final margin. The projections could be wildly inaccurate initially until we get a better sample of the recounted votes. The county results are available here.

November 19, 3:41 PM CST: Current: Coleman +218 votes Projected: Coleman +291 votes
November 19, 4:35 PM CST: Current: Coleman +212 votes Projected: Franken +3 votes
November 19, 5:59 PM CST (5% recounted): Current: Coleman +224 votes Projected: Coleman +158 votes
November 19, 6:54 PM CST (6% recounted): Current: Coleman +196 votes Projected: Coleman +47 votes
November 19, 9:13 PM CST (18% recounted): Current: Coleman +174 votes Projected: Coleman +21 votes

CA Pol Junkie :: 1:43 PM :: Comments (12) :: Digg It!