Iran: What We See And What We Think We See
Many of us suspect that the Iranian election was stolen. There are widespread reports of irregularities. But I have yet to see proof that these irregularities add up to a stolen election. In some ways, it reminds me of Ohio, in 2004. There is no question that there were widespread election irregularities, in Ohio, that year. But whether those irregularities cost John Kerry the state was, to my mind, unproven. The same pertains to Iran, at least for now.
Meanwhile, we all need to keep a close eye on all the reports. Massive protests prove nothing other than massive unrest. Plenty of Iranians are fed up with Iran's hard-line government. This New Yorker article reports second hand news that Interior Ministry officials have written a letter contesting the election results. But the reporter doesn't claim to have seen the letter. In a rapidly developing story, we need to keep our minds clear about what we are seeing and what we think we are seeing.
My gut tells me that the election was stolen. But that's just my gut. Meanwhile, this Guardian article offers an alternative view, that many of us are not seeing. Nate Silver also says that statistical analysis does not prove a stolen election. That doesn't mean that the election wasn't stolen; but it does mean that the numbers don't yet prove it. I'm waiting for proof.