Gallup's Polls: 44% of Registered Voters Unemployed?
One could read the mounds of polling data that’s come out over the last week from Gallup and conclude that Democrats are finished this November. After all, Gallup is telling us in their recent late March polling that:
*The country has turned against the health care reform bill;
*The GOP has now taken a generic ballot advantage over the Democrats for the fall election;
*A majority feel that healthcare costs and the federal budget deficit will get worse as a result of the bill; and
*The public (incredibly) blames the Democrats more for the vandalism and threats in the aftermath of reform’s passage.
What Gallup and the USAT aren’t telling you is that in the registered voter sample they used in their late March polling, 44% of that sample was unemployed, and that they used a weighted sample with the same number of GOP/lean GOP voters as Democrat/lean Democrat voters. I know unemployment is bad right now, but is it "44%" bad? And at what point did Republicans catch the Democrats among registered voters? I must have missed that.
If you're going to build a poll based on a sample that is sitting at home and 44% unemployed, and 47% GOP or GOP-leaning, presumably getting all their information from Fox News telling them that it's all Obama's fault, are you surprised at this result?