Is The Doom Justified?

by Deacon Blues

By now, we’ve all seen numerous reports from the political media about Democrats’ tough prospects this fall, fueled by claims from the conservative media that voters have turned against the overreach from Democratic incumbents. It’s a great storyline, especially for Fox, Rush, and Beck-the-Wreck to pitch everyday to their sheeple. But does the storyline hold up?

The USAT tells us this morning that their review of only 28 states indicates that voters have turned against both parties as we head into the midterms. Yet an actual Gallup poll also shows that satisfaction among Democrats has spiked upward since the passage of health care reform, and now sits at 49%. Satisfaction amongst independents inched up also in April since the passage of HCR.

These numbers will only go up further as Democrats force the GOP to side with Wall Street and attempt a filibuster of the financial reform bill later this spring, and will go up again as Obama dares the GOP to block a Supreme Court nominee for being too much of a challenge to the court’s corporate majority. As we’ve already said here, portraying financial reform as an effort to protect Main Street from Wall Street is a winner for Democrats, which is confirmed by another poll from Gallup. Much like the Anthem Blue Cross rate hike story helped Democrats get HCR over the hump at a critical time, I suspect the SEC's action against Goldman Sachs will do the same for financial reform.

If Obama spends his near-term efforts on forcing a showdown with the GOP on financial reform and his Supreme Court pick, and then pivots into a laser-like focus on the economy during the summer as the economic indicators gradually improve, he’ll not only energize the base heading into the midterms, but he'll also pull some of the independents away from siding with a GOP that favors Wall Street over Main Street.