How Do You Vote?

by Deacon Blues

Reading the rest of the blogs and the comments on this one already in response to Obama’s "deal" with the GOP leads me to an obvious discussion point: 2012.

There is renewed and now quite energetic talk within the progressive ranks about a primary challenge to Obama from the left. The odds of success are long, since the party machinery and donors will whine and complain about the incumbent but won’t actually condone a Carter/Kennedy civil war. Besides, who would you want for this mission?

Against this backdrop, there are two other looming developments that make 2012 fascinating. First, there will be a GOP civil war, between the Jim DeMint/Sarah Palin Tea Party faction that will reject any snubbing, and the GOP establishment headed by the likes of Mitt Romney and others. DeMint wants significant control of the decision making these next two years, and Palin is deluded by visions of great self-importance. Mitt and the gang want Tea Party support but don’t want the rabble to poison the Beltway GOP’s chances at retaking the White House. The Obama White House is counting on this and looking for ways to exacerbate these tensions, in the hope that their path to reelection is easier with a strife-ridden GOP. Hence their move to triangulate the base and lunge for the middle.

But will the middle still want Obama for another four years, after seeing his performance during the first term? And more importantly, what will the middle do if and when Michael Bloomberg launches an independent candidacy by trashing both parties and appealing to millions of voters who feel that Obama has ignored their economic hardship while paying too much attention to Wall Street?

Today’s direct question: Assuming Obama is headed for re-nomination and Bloomberg launches an independent candidacy with a promise to clean things up and hold people accountable, who gets your vote?