New Polls: Democrats Can Come in from the Ledge

by CA Pol Junkie

Mitt Romney received a bump in the polls from the debate last week. Democrats were panicking over whether the trend would continue, stop, or subside. Overnight we got swing state polls from neutral methodologically rigorous pollsters which indicate that Obama is still favored for re-election, if not by the large margins apparent before the debate.

Marist Poll for NBC & Wall Street Journal

Ohio 10/7-10/9 (9/30-10/1)
Obama 51 (51)
Romney 45 (43)

The best news for Obama in the Ohio poll is that 18% of likely voters have already voted and 63% of them voted for Obama.

Virginia 10/7-10/9 (9/30-10/1)
Obama 47 (48)
Romney 48 (46)

Florida 10/7-10/9 (9/30-10/1)
Obama 48 (47)
Romney 47 (46)

Considering the news last week, a 6 point lead in Ohio (though other pollsters may disagree) looks very good. Florida is tight but with no change, while Virginia slipped 3 points. Quinnipiac has better news in Virginia:

Virginia 10/4-10/9 (9/11-9/17)
Obama 51 (50)
Romney 46 (46)

Wisconsin 10/4-10/9 (9/11-9/17)
Obama 50 (51)
Romney 47 (45)

Colorado 10/4-10/9 (9/11-9/17)
Obama 47 (48)
Romney 48 (47)

Quinnipiac sees modest movement toward Romney in Wisconsin and Colorado but essentially no change from Obama's post-convention high in Virginia. Every single poll done in Wisconsin has had Obama in the lead, so there's not much risk there. Ohio remains Barack Obama's firewall. If Obama wins there, Romney would have to win in Florida AND North Carolina AND Virginia AND Iowa AND Colorado AND Nevada to win the electoral vote. I'd definitely rather be in Obama's position than Romney's.