False Assumptions

by Steve

There is a fundamental disconnect between actual public opinion on the government shutdown, and what the House Republicans think it is. According to today's developments, the House GOP leadership is telling the media that public opinion will swing their way in support of stopping the Affordable Care Act at the expense of the shutdown or even a default.

“The entire government is shut down right now because Washington Democrats refuse to even talk about fairness for all Americans under Obamacare,” said Michael Steel, a spokesman for Mr. Boehner. “Offering to negotiate only after Democrats get everything they want is not much of an offer.”

Now Mr. Steel gets paid to lie for John Boehner. But he conveniently ignores the fact that congressional Democrats have agreed to a Continuing Resolution funding level that cements into place the sequester cuts, a significant concession on the part of Democrats. But Boehner has made the mistake of accepting the stillborn demands of the far right, which are built upon a false assumption that their winning issue isn't budget cuts but rather demolishing the ACA. And that's where the GOP is headed for disaster.

While some Republicans are ready to cave in, the House’s most ardent conservatives said they could win the battle for public opinion and, eventually, the war over the health care law, whose insurance exchanges opened for enrollment on Tuesday.

“I’m optimistic,” said Representative Tim Huelskamp, Republican of Kansas. “At the end of the day, the American people usually get their way.”

Except Timmy, the American people think you and the rest of the Tea Party extremists are full of sh*t:

American voters oppose 72 - 22 percent Congress shutting down the federal government to block implementation of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Voters also oppose 64 - 27 percent blocking an increase in the nation's debt ceiling as a way to stop Obamacare, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

How bad can it get for the GOP? Bad enough that next year's House GOP majority is now in doubt, not in the gerrymandered districts but in the marginal districts.

Looking at the 2014 Congressional races, voters pick a generic Democrat over a generic Republican candidate 43 - 34 percent, the widest Democratic margin measured so far.

If John Boehner allows the Tea Party fringe to control the House GOP caucus as we head into the week of the default deadline, all bets are off for 2014 and Boehner's hold on the Speakership.