Wednesday :: Sep 16, 2015

Get the Popcorn

by Deacon Blues
Image courtesy of

There’s been a flurry of polls lately that have gotten a lot of media attention, largely because of what they reveal about how the current GOP electorate has abandoned mainstream GOP candidates to chase the current bright, shiny objects of Donald Trump and Ben Carson. Of course it’s still early, but if Jeb Bush and other Republican politicians are now polling in single digits against Trump and Carson, then those candidates have a lot of ground to make up during the primary/caucus season to push past the outsiders and gain a nomination, which will not happen without an intraparty civil war and possible third-party move that destroys the modern GOP. And it will have to happen at a time when Trump is getting better as a candidate.

I should also point out that both the CBS News/NYT and ABC News/Washington Post polls have large margins of error (MOE) within their party samples and small samples, so there should be some caution in drawing assessments about the electorate from such polls. Anyone making judgments based on a poll with a MOE of 5-6% needs to catch their breath.

The media has of course also been highlighting Hillary’s declining poll numbers and talking up Joe Biden’s chances in this same coverage. Yes, as David Brooks noted yesterday, Hillary suffers from not having a “formation” story or narrative for her candidacy compared to others. And the self-inflicted wounds from the email stupidity and hereditary defects of Clinton Entitlement Syndrome contribute to her slippage as well. I think Biden will make a final decision about getting in after Hillary’s congressional appearance next month. I also think Hillary has decided to play for the long haul; she accepts the certainty of month-to-month bed media. She’s doing this on the premise that despite her warts she’ll look acceptable to a large part of the electorate at the back end of the GOP Armageddon.

And if the GOP shuts down the government in the meantime over defunding Planned Parenthood, Hillary and the rest of the Democrats will look like adults compared to the GOP Romper Room.

Deacon Blues :: 11:20 AM :: Comments (2) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!