Thursday :: Aug 4, 2016

Clinton 48%, Trump 33%

by Deacon Blues

Yes, it's only one poll, and yes, it's only August 4th and not Labor Day. But did the bottom fall out from under Donald Trump in the last week? According to a new national poll from McClatchy-Marist of 983 registered voters, it might have.

Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.
Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men — while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found.
Clinton not only went up, but Trump went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.
The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended, and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, killed in the Iraq War 12 years ago.

The poll might have some outlier features in it, but the sample size is large with a small margin of error (MOE) of only 3.1%. According to the results, which were based on polling through yesterday,
-Clinton leads by 20 with women
-Clinton leads by 50-27% with moderates
-Clinton leads by 93-2% with African Americans
-Clinton leads by 55-26% with Latinos
-Clinton now beats Trump amongst men by 8%
-Clinton now trails Trump with white voters by only 41-39%
Sure, some of these numbers may get better for Trump with his all-negative, all-the-time campaign, fueled by millions of small-dollar donations from his (racist) base.

Or maybe not. The poll had only 5% who were undecided. It seems like the electorate has seen enough of Trump over these last two weeks to make their mind up that he is unfit.

If Trump's floor has already fallen to 33%, or even worse to 31% in a four-candidate race, then the GOP has become a fringe party.

Update: A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted at the same time shows Clinton with a 9-point lead. However, this poll of registered voters had a smaller sample size and a larger MOE, than the Marist poll.

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