Thursday :: Mar 19, 2020

Gallup and Trump's Approval Rating - Again


by Deacon Blues

At the risk of ploughing old ground, from 16 years ago, please be advised that any Gallup poll on Donald Trump's job approval is suspect. Why? Because just like what Gallup did to inflate George W. Bush's chances in 2004, Gallup today is using a sample they constructed that over-weights Republicans and conservatives.

Don't believe me? There's been talk over the last several weeks, and especially this week about Trump's approval rating in the Gallup poll only dropping 5 points in the midst of his clusterf*ck negligence as an alleged war time president in dealing with COVID-19.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the COVID-19 pandemic hits the U.S. and President Donald Trump's impeachment acquittal becomes a distant memory for Americans, his 44% job approval rating is down five percentage points, and back to where it was before the Senate acquitted him on the House's impeachment charges.
The latest reading is from Gallup's March 2-13 poll, which was conducted as the novel coronavirus spread throughout the U.S., eventually leading to international travel restrictions, the cancellation of major U.S. events and widespread school closures. The magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S. quickly evolved over the poll's field period, and Americans' (particularly Democrats' and independents') concern about it increased sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded historic declines in the past two weeks.

But even as Gallup notes the significantly increased concern amongst Democrats and independents, there's a reason why his Gallup approval ratings were higher than other polls, and why his recent drop was only five points. If you scroll down to the "Bottom Line" section of the story on the recent poll results, and click on the link to their actual questions and poll history, you also get to see the demographic makeup of the sample Gallup uses for their Trump approval polls.

Party Identification
30.0% Republican
37.3% Independent
29.6% Democratic

Political Ideology
39.4% Conservative
36.6% Moderate
21.7% Liberal

Race
64.9% White
33.8% Non-White

Ask yourself these questions:
1. Is a representative sample of Americans right now equally Republican and Democratic?
2. Are there really twice as many conservatives in America right now as liberals?
3. Are there really twice as many whites in America right now as non-whites?

Just asking.

Deacon Blues :: 11:40 AM :: Comments (6) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!