Monday :: Jun 8, 2020

The "Trump Recession" Started Before COVID


by Deacon Blues

I hate to throw cold water on Donald Trump's world, but facts are a funny thing.

Economy
The Trump economy ran out of gas in February, nearly a month before the effects of COVID took root. He can't blame the bad economy on China, or COVID. He owns it.

2020 Election
Joe Biden is now up 14 points in a national head-to-head against Trump, according to a CNN poll out this morning. The poll was started the day after Trump and Bill Barr had nonviolent protesters removed with force by unaccountable paramilitary troops from Lafayette Square in Washington DC for a photo op, at the suggestion of Javanka and Don Junior.

Although the Trump supporters are quick to MAGA their way into Twitter to attack the poll, several points need to be made. First, comparisons to 2016 are irrelevant because there is no Hillary on the ballot nor the hatred that goes with it. Second, unlike 2016, Trump has to defend his record and actions as president, which he can't. It'll be hard to look away from 150,000 dead Americans and a damaged economy and still think Trump can get anyone to come back to him who's already left him by June.

And third, despite the obligatory caveat that the state-by-state numbers and the Electoral College dictate who will be president, those battleground state numbers don't look so good for Trump either; he's spending money in Ohio to stop the bleeding. People forget that the race shifted significantly in the last ten days of 2016, especially in the critical states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where Trump won the election by 77,000 votes out of 140 million cast. Name one state Trump can take from Biden that Hillary got in 2016, and while you are doing that, I can name a half-dozen that Biden is on the verge of grabbing from Trump this time.

Do I think this poll reflects reality at this point? No, because in this poll, there were only 25% self-identified Republicans yet 44% self-identified independents. But is the lead 7-10 points? Yep.

Those Jobless Numbers Last Week
It shouldn't surprise you that those jobless numbers from last Friday that Trump and the administration crowed about were suspect, given that the report came without waiting for updated California and New York unemployment insurance claims totals. Worse for Trump, he'll now use these phony numbers to withhold a next round of COVID fiscal relief, which will doom him and Mitch McConnell's hold on the Senate.

Secret Police Forces
As Paradox wrote last week, the misuse of federal law enforcement resources by Trump and Barr in a secret police force is the stuff of dictators. I didn't know the federal prisons and our borders were so safe that we could afford to redirect hundreds of those officers away from their jurisdictions to illegally harass the citizens of DC.

I guess if these parts of the federal law enforcement infrastructure are so overstaffed that they can afford this pathetic redirection of resources, then Nancy Pelosi can instruct the House Budget Committee to cut the budgets of these departments in the upcoming fiscal year.

Deacon Blues :: 10:58 AM :: Comments (0) :: TrackBack (0) :: Digg It!