Miss Manners suggests that resignation followed by hara kiri is the proper thing to do in this case.
Posted by TIKI AL at July 14, 2007 08:23 AMI also find myself missing Steve, way more than I ever imagined missing someone I never even met. He would lay it all out, with maps and photos and brutally clear-eyed assessments of how it would play out, as if he could truly pierce through the fog of this awful war.
I remember that prediction too, and although I now believe that Bush will never, ever voluntarily leave the White House, I can see how it might happen. I was talking to my husband the other night about this, and his airy assessment was that it would be no problem for our troops to redeploy, that we would kick ass and take names all the way out of town, after all, we're the Americans, right?
He's never looked at the map of the Green Zone, and how the Iraqis have whittled down the ways in and out, and how very easy it will be for them to shut down the last remaining road to make us fight our way out.
Posted by merciless at July 14, 2007 08:31 AMShhhhhhhhhhh.
Remember, "Impeachment is off the table." Speaker Botox is having none of it.
Posted by Christopher at July 14, 2007 08:33 AMSteve would always grimly predict Bush would be forcibly removed from the oval office, babbling even more incoherently than he does now under a cloud of medications.
Personally, that's what scares the crap out of me.
Posted by Judith at July 14, 2007 08:54 AMAnyone who thinks impeachment isn't 100% necessary needs to watch the Bill Moyers show from last night.
Posted by CA-04 Voter at July 14, 2007 09:10 AMIf you think Bush will resign, then you are thinking that this group acts rationally. They do not believe in the same reality that most other people do. I would think he would nuke something before he resigned... And if he did and Cheney was President,,, there is no way that guy would resign once he had his rightful throne.
Instead, I wouldn't be surprised for a summer 2008 incident to necessitate marshall law.
Posted by steve talbert at July 14, 2007 09:23 AMcalvin advises that gentle readers avail themselves of news from the past whereby Bush set up the rules to favor the President in case of national emergency. Like taking control of the National Guard from the Governors. A "terrorist" incident. Martial law. No need for those pesky '08 elections.
Posted by calvinthecat at July 14, 2007 10:04 AMI think this scenario - a retreat debacle - is more and more likely. And I too first contemplated it with prompting from Steve Gilliard.
I wonder whether part of the public stance of the Democrats in Washington might be based on calculation of the possibility of such a disaster in Iraq - a sort of worst case scenario, self-protection calculation. It goes like this: suppose things really go south in Iraq, such that many many more American troops are killed rather quickly, scenes are shown on TV of burning armor and aircraft and of scramblings for helicopters on roofs, etc. Where would a prudent politician want to be as this unfolds? NOT TO BLAME is where. Making noises about how you want this to end, and at the same time letting on just how powerless you are to stop Bush, and how concerned you are about the future of Iraq, seems like a prudent position in this case.
In other words, the fear of the Dolchstoss canard may be a stronger a motivator among Dems than is fear and loathing of BushCo usurpations. It makes me sick. But it sounds plausible as an explanation for congressional stalemate pending the disaster Steve envisioned.
Posted by semiot at July 14, 2007 10:07 AMHara kiri requires honor. This is a concept completely incomprehensible to the cheney/bush regime.
Posted by jwrjr at July 14, 2007 11:24 AMWonder if anyone has seen Bush talking to the portraits in the WH?
Posted by Judith at July 14, 2007 12:31 PMWith all due respect to the late Mr. Gilliard and you, Paradox, I fear that scenario (a horrendous retreat from Baghdad) will take place on Bush's successor's watch. Why do you think Shrub is trying to run out the clock? So those picture don't hit the national news while he's still president. And no matter how much the Democrats scream it was Bush's fault, the Republican noise machine will plaster those images all over the Democratic president's picture in the election that follows. And if Congress grows a spine next week and cuts off war funding and that scenario happens (strictly due to BushCo's incompetence), the Democrats will be scapegoated then, too.
Posted by dalloway at July 14, 2007 12:45 PMDalloway, that was my exact thoughts this morning. It is a Catch 22 for the Democrats. Once a Democrat sits in the Oval Office, it becomes their war. That is one of the important factors in ending this before the elections next year, if that is possible. Bush knows this, and if he can stall until then, every Republican thereafter will point their collective fingers at the Democrats as the war deteriorates even more.
Posted by Judith at July 14, 2007 12:59 PMYour view only reinforces the urgent need for impeachment of both Dick and George. Your problem is in assuming that this is solely an American affair. It's time for responsible adults in Washington -- if there's any left in both parties -- to take over this mess yesterday, and work out diplomatically with others in the world to come out with a solution to help us pull out safely.
Posted by MopCrew at July 14, 2007 01:26 PMOk, so let's say that Bush runs out the clock. The next president, definitely a Dem, should use his or her executive power IMMEDIATELY to bring the troops home. The longer the next President waits after taking office, the more he or she will own the aftermath of this atrocity. IMPEACH THESE PIG-FOCKERS ALREADY! RIGHT NOW!!!
Posted by J R at July 14, 2007 01:39 PMThe scenario recalls the final Truman years when we were mired in Korea. Ike rode into the Oval Office largely on a promise that he would wind the conflict down.
It is increasingly likely the nominated Democrat will reenact that play as the GOP clods have predoomed themselves by endorsing Prezidunce Asperger's devotion to his pet catastrophe.
I continue to maintain that this whole episode of a preziduncy has a growing whiff of doom about it and I would not be surprised to see it derail. Still impeachment should be part of the array of forces imposed on this wreck of a thing.
Posted by Chris Rich at July 14, 2007 02:15 PMHave you also noticed that the insurgents are getting more and more able to do damage inside the Green Zone? And those undefended bases where the GIs are embedded with the Irawi "Security Forces"?
Next spring there have to be big troop rotations out, becaue the troops will have been there too long, and the military will insist on it. They have to. The troops will either be flown out or go South down the uncertain roads where Jessica Lynch went astray on the way in.
If there is a big debacle (and I'm not wishing for same at all), there could be a very insistent demand to get the troops out of there, and we are then dependent on the Iraqis wanting us out more than wanting us dead.
This will not end well and I just hope it ends while Bush is still in office. Regardless, I think people know who to blame for the fiasco, and it isn't going to be persuasive to say we should have gone in with another 150,000 troops (see McCain, John).
Posted by Mimikatz at July 14, 2007 02:25 PMFirst of all ---- I'm brand new here. Your post title caught my eye from RacyMind. Awesome. I never had the pleasure of Mr. Gilliard but recognize that he is admired far and wide. Wondering about the recent death of he and the james who wrote rittenhouse review. Another I did not have the occasion to meet 'beforehand'. Makes me sad. And suspicious.
That said ---- it is SO DAMN HOT. I am thinking TONS of people will lose their patience in the heat and that will be the end of it. The summer of heat will fire up demand that he JUST GO. But, I think he's too stupid to do that. He is acting Nixonian-ish, though.
My main reason for commenting is because a.. the post is obviously awesome, hopeful and touched me b. John Edwards .. the first words OUT OF HIS MOUTH in Tampa FL were this: MY FIRST DAY AS President of the United States; my FIRST act will be TO END this war with Iraq.
I have not made up my mind who I will support ... I just happened to have a ticket to the speech. I will say that I have seen the others, or at least obama, kucinich, gravel ... (not hills) ... I AM inclined towareds edwards but if gore jumped out there .. well ...
But that IS what John Edwards said. That he would end THIS war with Iraq as his first ast as President.
For what it's worth.
Love your blog. I've been here before and might even have you 'rolled'. iF NOT I should.
tHANKS for the hopeful post.
Yeah, I miss Gilliard, too!
I really, really hate the idea of Americans having to scramble out of Baghdad in the same manner they did out of Saigon in '75, but oh man, oh man, oh man, if it happens, please, please, please let it happen while Bush is still in office!!! I want him to take 100% of the blame for all of it!
Bush will not resign. He may not even leave the WH when his term is up.
Gilliard was interesting, but his analysis of the invasion of Iraq wasn't particularly good -- he expected far more problems than what surfaced. IMHO, it was always going to be the occupation that would be the quamire.
Posted by Marie at July 14, 2007 04:23 PMI loved Gilliard, but I never bought this one.
Bush/Cheney will walk, free and clear. The Democrats will not only allow it, they will promote it. No one will be punished. Everyone will get to keep the money.
Democrats, and more specifically "liberals," will be blamed for the disaster in Iraq. "Some Democrats" will agree and use this to purge anyone with anti-war attitudes from the party leadership.
Political power in America will continue to be divided between two loosely related wings of the corporate ruling class.
Change will come only in response to a national disaster on the order of the Great Depression. And it will be ugly.
For Steve Talbert, dude, uh, it's martial law... as in martial law imposed by Prez Hitler, to maintain order in the streets after he announces he AIN'T EVER STEPPING DOWN! NEITHER IS CHENEY!
Y'all just don't get it. They are staying in power, as they have since 2000 and if we do have an election in 2008, it'll be a show, but the same creeps will control us. We're FUCKED as in fucked and more of the same.
Posted by Mal Feasance at July 14, 2007 06:21 PMI had many discussions with Steve, I love a good argument about military strategy. He knew his history, he did and he understood the psychology of his opponents well. George bush has never faced the consequences of his failures. He was really shaken during his news conference after the Senate sunk the immigration bill! If he is forced by circumstances beyond his control to answer for a forced retreat from Iraq he will melt down or withdraw from public view. Both of which the American public would not endure for long. Good blog, respect and peace to you.
Posted by LarkinsJapn at July 14, 2007 08:28 PM"Have you also noticed that the insurgents are getting more and more able to do damage inside the Green Zone?" -(Mimikatz)
-That's wonderful news! We should all be unashamedly happy.
"If there is a big debacle (and I'm not wishing for same at all)..."
-(Mimikatz)
Why not? I am wishing for just such a "big debacle." As should you.
A total defeat for Imperial fascism accompanied by the conflagration of the odious Green Zone. The world cheers!
Como en Vietnam.
The great flaw in all liberal thinking is they want the war to end without having America to lose it.
That is utter nonsense.
The civilized world wants and needs for America to lose.
In fact they demand it.
So should you.
Posted by Jill Bains at July 14, 2007 09:23 PMI've become increasingly convinced over the last year that these Bastards will never leave office....they can't afford to hand over the reins of power to anyone who is an honest and true American. The criminality of this Cheney/Bush Crime Family is so extensive and profound that they would surely be fully investigated and pursued by the next administration. Without their "Imperium" , they will be unable to conceal the proof of their malfeasance or intimidate those who oppose them.
They must find an emergency - real or invented - in order to declare a national emergency and institute martial law .... naturally the election of 11/08 will have to be "postponed". They have worked themselves into an authoritarian cul-de-sac. They can't simply retire when they leave office. Cheney/Bush are a self-declared Monarch or, actually, a WarLord. They simply can't leave office without huge personal risk...(and we all know that this chickenhawk bunch can't tolerate personal risk).... Or all they have done will be for nought. Too many American won't allow them to rest until there is retribution.
That is my fear. Between now and 1/20/09, the end of the American Republic may be determined. How will we ever get our country back?
Posted by endgame at July 14, 2007 09:34 PMJames E. Powell is the clearest thinker in the bunch.
When he says: "It will be ugly", he is correct.
America will default to an indigenous variant of a purer fascism than is already afforded by liberal capitalist democracy.
The foot is already in that door.
We await the Dick Cheney commemorative postage stamp.
In blood red.
Posted by Jill Bains at July 14, 2007 09:37 PMPerhaps in 20 years, there will be a rising clamor amongst concerned Canadians... about the sad state of security along their southern border....too many illegals entering their country from the south....at least they speak English, they'll say. An apocalyptic vision of what America is become....the rest of the world can see.
Posted by endgame at July 15, 2007 03:09 AM"Miss Manners suggests that resignation followed by hara kiri is the proper thing to do in this case."
TIKI, both Cheney and Bush are too narcissistic to do us that favor.
I discovered Steve only several months before his illness and death, but his blog became a "must read" for me. Thank you for recalling his prediction.
The comments to this piece have reflected many of the fears I have and share with the commenters - that the Bush cabal will figure out a way to hold onto the presidency, that they will NEVER be held accountable, and that there will be some truly terrible event in Iraq that will trigger a real change of the course of this insanity. (As if what's happening there right now isn't terrible enough).
Thank you, paradox, and thanks to the many thoughtful commenters.
Posted by KathyP at July 15, 2007 06:04 AM"An apocalyptic vision of what America has become....the rest of the world can see." -(endgame)
Perhaps Science fiction and Apocalypse is now the only sensible way to continue to understand.
Perhaps Apocalypse is no longer something big or singular, but is a silent on going process no more than a blip on a placid surface.
Perhaps the true genius of America is that this catastrophe is all but invisible, a death in life.
Like the Iraqi dead.
Like death from the air. So silent so detached that one can say it never happened.
But that is the Iraqi Apocalypse. Not the American Apocalyse.
Or is it?
Posted by Jill Bains at July 15, 2007 10:59 AM