Comments: Iowa Countdown - 6 Days

The polling also can't measure the weirdness inherent in the caucus process. In my precinct, Biden will be viable unless the turnout is much higher than in 2004. I think he has between 15 and 20 percent of the likely caucusgoers, just from talking to people. We report seven delegates to Des Moines on caucus night. If Biden has 20 people he could get three of them.

I love this spreadsheet as a tool for showing how crazy this is.

Posted by 2LaneIA at December 28, 2007 10:48 AM

I'm wondering where you, 2Lane, live - the only person/family I know supporting Biden is an in-law uncle who was the Polk Co. Chairman once upon a time. :)

Which leads me to perception again - what you witness around you is influenced by your own opinions. I seem to remember thinking that Kucinich would pull off a 5-6% coup in '04, and he was pounded that night.

Thanks for posting the Drew Miller spreadsheet!

Posted by idiosynchronic at December 28, 2007 01:33 PM
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