After flaying you for such a nasty diary a few days ago, I couldn't be more in agreement today.
Neither sides primary season is going to be anything like over after New Hampshire.
Clinton is still seen as a big winner in Michigan, but since the state is leapfrogging the national schedule, it's being stripped of delegates. At the same time, the prominent Republicans are all in a close race. Those campaigns are still working their early contests because these states only lose half the national convention delegates, unlike the total loss for the Democratic state parties.
Clinton is still overwhelmingly ahead in Nevada. Senate Leader Reid has all but declared he'll guarantee that Clinton will win his state. Giuliani and Romney are in a dead heat there.
On the same day, the South Carolina GOP will have its primary - Huckabee has a strong lead. A week later, the SC Democrats have their primary, and Obama has an equally strong lead in the Democratic contest.
Clinton has a massive lead in Florida, but it also has jumped the primary schedule and has been stripped of its delegation like Michigan. Again - the Republican race is close & competitive.
There is absolutely no reason for anyone to believe that either party will have their nominee until February 5th. I can see ST probably closing down all but 2 campaigns on the Democratic side, because no one may yet have a majority, but the Republican campaigns are all running so close right now it could be June before they get theirs straightened out.
Posted by idiosynchronic at January 8, 2008 06:13 AMHistory isn't going to be much of a guide this time, because the states or somebody had to "front load" and fuck up whatever "deliberative" aspect this process had. I anything the early primaries are even MORE important, not less.
Today it's just a question of how bad Hillary will be beat---that'll be the spin. "Obama didn't crush me nearly as bad as people thought he would" will be the best that the Clintons can say. And on to SC---good luck.
Let Hillary be Hillary! Who's she been so far exactly? There seems to be this powerful idea that politicians on camera 24/7 have some magical ability to "camoflage" their real selves because some "consultant" has scripted a false "part" for them to play. I don't much believe it.
You're seeing the "real" Hillary---she's fine, she's pretty much like she was as first lady, an accomplished, articulate, informed person. But there isn't another "real, emotional and [super]inspiring" Super-Hillary being held back. If there is, she should get an Oscar. And be denounced for massive stupidity.
Posted by euzoius at January 8, 2008 06:17 AMhttp://www.freedomroadproject.blogspot.com
You all are getting further and further away from reality. Your desperation for a Clinton restoration has clouded your political judgement. Yes, this campaign will be close to over by 9pm tonight. Rats are beginning to jump ship on Clinton already. Donors are soon to follow...
As for "let Hillary be Hillary," that is laughable. WE HAVE SEEN THE REAL HILLARY THROUGHOUT THIS CAMPAIGN: calculating, ambitious to a fault, arrogant, entitled, dirty tricker, slimer... this has been a long time coming in the Democratic Party. They've smeared Obama's drug use, playing the race card; they've smeared him on his middle name; they've smeared him on the bogus madrassa story; they've smeared his perfect 100% pro-choice record; they've played the Rudy G 9/11 fear card... Seriously, these people have no shame.
The Clintons have reaped what they sowed. If I was Hillary, I would do the honorable thing and get out soon with my dignity and reputation still somewhat in hand. She can go back to the Senate and become a Ted Kennedy-like figure in the party... and Obama's going to need good leadership in Congress when he is President!
Posted by Patrick at January 8, 2008 06:30 AMI've heard something about super delegates--what are they and how does that play in? Also, what happens to the Michigan and Florida delegates that were stripped--the Michigan and Florida primaries just don't count at all?? So the democratic party is disenfranchising people?
Posted by CG at January 8, 2008 06:43 AMI agree that the primary season is not over after New Hampshire or South Carolina. What amuses me is that the conventional argument about the count of committed delegates has not yet been proffered by the Clinton Camp. We have often heard in years past that the clump of Big State primaries makes for a certain inevitability if the front-runner or the challengers control the outcome in key states. If the Clinton camp fails to make this argument, then I say she is in big trouble.
Posted by Gtash at January 8, 2008 06:44 AMLet's keep in mind that all the baying about unstoppable stamrollers, inevitability and moribund campaigns, after about .8% of the electorate has actually had a chance to vote, is coming from the same Beltway dogs who either work for opponents, their corporate masters or their own self-interest; as does nearly EVERY STINKING "Democrat Advisor". Spoken with some admitted exaggeration. See Turkana's thread about advice to Hillary below.
Either that or they are highly fevered "supporters" of one candidate and bitter enemy of the others. There is no conceivable damage to a Clinton Senate career as a consequence of continuing to campaign. Such a ludicrous concept should make any "serious journalist" ashamed to even think it. Instead, it's being bruited about as a genuine reason for Hillary to ignore her obligations to her millions of supporters and all objective facts of the remaining 48 primary elections and caucuses.
The political discourse in this teetering, abused republic has descended to truly appalling depths. How stupid is the American electorate? I guess we'll soon know.
Posted by DeminNewJ at January 8, 2008 07:03 AMIdiosynchronic,
I responded to your comment in the previous post. Please go read it and let me know your thoughts. Thanks.
Posted by eriposte at January 8, 2008 07:17 AMIt's already over for Hillary and that is the best news for us.
She would motivate the Sheeple to come out in a way that none of the lame Republican candidates ever could.
By contrast Obama's coallition of the young and independents bodes well for a general election win!
Posted by midwestdem at January 8, 2008 07:47 AMCG, HC has 154 super delegates right now, so technically, she's leading the delegate count by about 100. That's before NH.
Posted by peter at January 8, 2008 08:07 AMFirst off, I am still uncommitted. Whoever gets the nomination will get my wholehearted support. Right now that looks like Obama. In the last 50 years all the candidates that have won both Iowa and New Hampshire have gone on to win their party's nomination. Only 2 eventual nominees have failed to win either Iowa or NH (Bill Clinton was one of them). Of course, everything about this cycle seems groundbreaking, so there's hope yet for Hillary even if she loses today.
Posted by MarvyT at January 8, 2008 08:31 AMCORRECTION: In 1972, Ed Muskie won both Iowa and NH but lost the nomination to McGovern. However, Muskie had that famous incident lambasting the editor of the NH paper who smeared his wife but was crying while doing so. He did win NH but that scene sunk his national hopes.
Posted by MarvyT at January 8, 2008 08:57 AMBut what's a super delegate?
Posted by CG at January 8, 2008 08:58 AMNevermind--I looked it up. I never knew about that.
Posted by CG at January 8, 2008 09:04 AMYou're right, it's not over after New Hampshire. Michigan will be a gimmee for Hillary, and then she'll lose in South Carolina. And then it's over for Hillary.
Posted by Brian Bell at January 8, 2008 09:33 AMThe good news is that as much as ours won't be wrapped up soon, the GOP is in even far more difficult straits as 5 candidates are competitive in the different states coming up. They're much more likely end up with no clear majority of delegates for nomination by June. Coupled with a less excited base and little independent enthusiasm, their impending civil war will really wound the party name and brand.
Posted by idiosynchronic at January 8, 2008 12:27 PMI think a lot of Hillary supporters (and Edwards supporters) are going to be pissed if the narrative after NH says to give up.
I expect very hard fighting after NH, no matter what happens.