Nice to see you back...safely I hope. Your fellow sojourners, Ann Bancroft and Liv Arnesen had difficulties in their trek across the Artic. they went expecting global warming temps and encountered temps that weren't expected. One got frostbite on three toes. They ended up calling off their exploration, it was just too cold to go on, -58 inside the tent and -100 outside.
Welcome back, I hope that Simp and the kids gave you a nice Christmas welcome.
Posted by peter at January 14, 2008 06:38 AMAnn Bancroft and Liv Arnesen
Not sure how that expedition (a year ago) is relevant here. As I understand it, the point of their trip was to draw attention to change in the Arctic. That doesn't make them immune to the weather.
Posted by Christina at January 14, 2008 06:47 AMChristina, I was going to send this article from the WaPo to you.
First thing on the net I read this morning.
Posted by Seven of Six at January 14, 2008 06:50 AMI heard a talk about the new mass balance calculation presented in the paper from Rignot, Bamber, and others (news story linked by Seven of Six). It's a nice step forward in making a difficult calculation. The paper is in a new part of the prestigious Nature empire, Nature Geoscience.
The news headline is a bit misleading because it's not "melting" in the way we usually think about it (that is, up on the surface) that's at work. The big source of change is the rate of flow of specific outlet glaciers in west Antarctica. And those changes, as I've written about before in the context of Greenland, are related to climate forcing at the downstream (coastal) ends of the glaciers.
Thanks for the lucid explanation, Christina. That makes my vision of the complex, interactive dynamics of climate change at least as clear as mud. It's no wonder why good climate models are always a goal, rather than an accomplishment.
Don't worry. For Peter, it's usually more about politics than science. Belittling celebrity activists is too much for him to resist.
Thanks again for making the picture at least a little clearer. I really appreciate your posts and hope to see more coming.
Posted by DeminNewJ at January 14, 2008 07:29 AMIf you are a aficionado of the global warming "debate,"....
you also know that there is no mathematical formula that quantifies the relationship between the rise in global temperatures in terms of the rise in CO2 levels. Nor are there any bayesian prior calculations to ensure that the causation works in the direction that the prophet Gore claims it goes. Nor is there a proper D/W calculation to rule out the possibility of a spurious relationship.
Then there are the papers by "scientists" like Thompson that get peer reviewed and approved, despite their complete disregard to document any data.
Blatant truncation of data series that don't comply with the religious doctrine(with no documentation of such unscientific methods)....
A very complete narrative on the science of global warming, with ample references, has been created by the American Institute of Physics here.
The role of CO2 and other "greenhouse gasses" in radiative transfer (how energy moves through the atmosphere) is understood. Indeed, without this basic understanding, we'd be forced to wonder why there is any liquid water on the planet, a problem that has been solved since the early 1800's.
There is no real reason to desire a single unifying equation for "global temperature." Climate is the result of many coupled processes (thermodynamics equations plus boundary conditions), some of which are directly connected to the change in radiative forcing, some of which are not.
Posted by Christina at January 14, 2008 05:39 PMI came across this press release from the Space and Science Research Center (affiliated with NASA). It adds another piece to the climate change puzzle.
In advance of a press conference for later this month, the first press release for 2008 is issued today:
PRESS RELEASE: SSRC 1-2008
Changes in the Sun’s Surface to Bring Next Climate Change
January 2, 2008
Today, the Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) in Orlando, Florida announces that it has confirmed the recent web announcement of NASA solar physicists that there are substantial changes occurring in the sun’s surface. The SSRC has further researched these changes and has concluded they will bring about the next climate change to one of a long lasting cold era.
Today, Director of the SSRC, John Casey has reaffirmed earlier research he led that independently discovered the sun’s changes are the result of a family of cycles that bring about climate shifts from cold climate to warm and back again.
“We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet. This is not however a unique event for the planet although it is critically important news to this and the next generations. It is but the normal sequence of alternating climate changes that has been going on for thousands of years. Further according to our research, this series of solar cycles are so predictable that they can be used to roughly forecast the next series of climate changes many decades in advance. I have verified the accuracy of these cycles’ behavior over the last 1,100 years relative to temperatures on Earth, to well over 90%.”
As to what these changes are Casey says, “The sun’s surface flows have slowed dramatically as NASA has indicated. This process of surface movement, what NASA calls the “conveyor belt” essentially sweeps up old sunspots and deposits new ones. NASA’s studies have found that when the surface movement slows down, sunspot counts drop significantly. All records of sunspot counts and other proxies of solar activity going back 6,000 years clearly validates our own findings that when we have sunspot counts lower then 50 it means only one thing - an intense cold climate, globally. NASA says the solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this spring will be at 50 or lower. The general opinion of the SSRC scientists is that it could begin even sooner within 3 years with the next solar cycle 24. What we are saying today is that my own research and that of the other scientists at the SSRC verifies that NASA is right about one thing – a solar cycle of 50 or lower is headed our way. With this next solar minimum predicted by NASA, what I call a “solar hibernation,” the SSRC forecasts a much colder Earth just as it has transpired before for thousands of years. If NASA is the more accurate on the schedule, then we may see even warmer temperatures before the bottom falls out. If the SSRC and other scientists around the world are correct then we have only a few years to prepare before 20-30 years of lasting and possibly dangerous cold arrive.”
When asked about what this will mean to the average person on the street, Casey was firm. “The last time this particular cycle regenerated was over 200 years ago. I call it the “Bi-Centennial Cycle” solar cycle. It took place between 1793 and 1830, the so-called Dalton Minimum, a period of extreme cold that resulted in what historian John D. Post called the ‘last great subsistence crisis.’ With that cold came massive crops losses, food riots, famine and disease. I believe this next climate change will be much stronger and has the potential to once more cause widespread crop losses globally with the resultant ill effects. The key difference for this next Bi-Centennial Cycle’s impact versus the last is that we will have over 8 billion mouths to feed in the next coldest years where as we had only 1 billion the last time. Among other effects like social and economic disruption, we are facing the real prospect of the ‘perfect storm of global food shortages’ in the next climate change. In answer to the question, everyone on the street will be affected.”
Given the importance of the next climate change Casey was asked whether the government has been notified. “Yes, as soon as my research revealed these solar cycles and the prediction of the coming cold era with the next climate change, I notified all the key offices in the Bush administration including both parties in the Senate and House science committees as well as most of the nation’s media outlets. Unfortunately, because of the intensity of coverage of the UN IPCC and man made global warming during 2007, the full story about climate change is very slow in getting told. These changes in the sun have begun. They are unstoppable. With the word finally starting to get out about the next climate change, hopefully we will have time to prepare. Right now, the newly organized SSRC is the leading independent research center in the US and possibly worldwide, that is focused on the next climate change. Some of the world’s brightest scientists, also experts in solar physics and the next climate change have joined with me. In the meantime we will do our best to spread the word along with NASA and others who can see what is about to take place for the Earth’s climate. Soon, I believe this will be recognized as the most important climate story of this century.”
I came across this press release from the Space and Science Research Center (affiliated with NASA). It adds another piece to the climate change puzzle.
In advance of a press conference for later this month, the first press release for 2008. PRESS RELEASE: SSRC 1-2008
Changes in the Sun’s Surface to Bring Next Climate Change
January 2, 2008
Today, the Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) in Orlando, Florida announces that it has confirmed the recent web announcement of NASA solar physicists that there are substantial changes occurring in the sun’s surface. The SSRC has further researched these changes and has concluded they will bring about the next climate change to one of a long lasting cold era.
Today, Director of the SSRC, John Casey has reaffirmed earlier research he led that independently discovered the sun’s changes are the result of a family of cycles that bring about climate shifts from cold climate to warm and back again.
“We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet. This is not however a unique event for the planet although it is critically important news to this and the next generations. It is but the normal sequence of alternating climate changes that has been going on for thousands of years. Further according to our research, this series of solar cycles are so predictable that they can be used to roughly forecast the next series of climate changes many decades in advance. I have verified the accuracy of these cycles’ behavior over the last 1,100 years relative to temperatures on Earth, to well over 90%.”
As to what these changes are Casey says, “The sun’s surface flows have slowed dramatically as NASA has indicated. This process of surface movement, what NASA calls the “conveyor belt” essentially sweeps up old sunspots and deposits new ones. NASA’s studies have found that when the surface movement slows down, sunspot counts drop significantly. All records of sunspot counts and other proxies of solar activity going back 6,000 years clearly validates our own findings that when we have sunspot counts lower then 50 it means only one thing - an intense cold climate, globally. NASA says the solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this spring will be at 50 or lower. The general opinion of the SSRC scientists is that it could begin even sooner within 3 years with the next solar cycle 24. What we are saying today is that my own research and that of the other scientists at the SSRC verifies that NASA is right about one thing – a solar cycle of 50 or lower is headed our way. With this next solar minimum predicted by NASA, what I call a “solar hibernation,” the SSRC forecasts a much colder Earth just as it has transpired before for thousands of years. If NASA is the more accurate on the schedule, then we may see even warmer temperatures before the bottom falls out. If the SSRC and other scientists around the world are correct then we have only a few years to prepare before 20-30 years of lasting and possibly dangerous cold arrive.”
When asked about what this will mean to the average person on the street, Casey was firm. “The last time this particular cycle regenerated was over 200 years ago. I call it the “Bi-Centennial Cycle” solar cycle. It took place between 1793 and 1830, the so-called Dalton Minimum, a period of extreme cold that resulted in what historian John D. Post called the ‘last great subsistence crisis.’ With that cold came massive crops losses, food riots, famine and disease. I believe this next climate change will be much stronger and has the potential to once more cause widespread crop losses globally with the resultant ill effects. The key difference for this next Bi-Centennial Cycle’s impact versus the last is that we will have over 8 billion mouths to feed in the next coldest years where as we had only 1 billion the last time. Among other effects like social and economic disruption, we are facing the real prospect of the ‘perfect storm of global food shortages’ in the next climate change. In answer to the question, everyone on the street will be affected.”
Given the importance of the next climate change Casey was asked whether the government has been notified. “Yes, as soon as my research revealed these solar cycles and the prediction of the coming cold era with the next climate change, I notified all the key offices in the Bush administration including both parties in the Senate and House science committees as well as most of the nation’s media outlets. Unfortunately, because of the intensity of coverage of the UN IPCC and man made global warming during 2007, the full story about climate change is very slow in getting told. These changes in the sun have begun. They are unstoppable. With the word finally starting to get out about the next climate change, hopefully we will have time to prepare. Right now, the newly organized SSRC is the leading independent research center in the US and possibly worldwide, that is focused on the next climate change. Some of the world’s brightest scientists, also experts in solar physics and the next climate change have joined with me. In the meantime we will do our best to spread the word along with NASA and others who can see what is about to take place for the Earth’s climate. Soon, I believe this will be recognized as the most important climate story of this century.”
Sorry about the double post.....
Posted by brisa at January 14, 2008 05:43 PMDraw your own conclusions from the website:
The Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) is an independent scientific research facility in Orlando, Florida, USA. The SSRC has begun to establish itself by taking the first step in its initial start up stage.It has activated with a virtual office site and will transition from its current location to permanent facilities with its next round of funding.
On the solar issue, I promised an article about that sometime last year and it's written, just not all linked up. I'll work on it.
"There is no real reason to desire a single unifying equation for "global temperature." Climate is the result of many coupled processes (thermodynamics equations plus boundary conditions), some of which are directly connected to the change in radiative forcing, some of which are not."
I agree with this, which is why you should realize that they don't actually reasonably know the degree to which human induced CO2 (including the stuff you exhale) has contributed to the short term warming trend. Yet we are supposed to take a huge hit to our standard of living just in case it is a meaningful amount? If you do this, you might as well start having the government collect indulgences, just in case.
Posted by Jay at January 14, 2008 05:59 PMquoting myself:
Climate is the result of many coupled processes
which is why we build computational models (using physics!) and test the models against the observational record, looking both backward in time and at the recent trends. There are many equations that must work together, and models are the way to accomplish that in a reasonable amount of time. Again, I'd recommend some basic reading at that AIP website.
Posted by Christina at January 14, 2008 08:26 PMI agree with this, which is why you should realize that they don't actually reasonably know the degree to which human induced CO2 (including the stuff you exhale) has contributed to the short term warming trend.
Obviously jay, "you exhale" immense amounts of CO2 that contribute to the "warming trend".
Posted by Seven of Six at January 14, 2008 09:38 PMGreat post, Christina. I found it all fascinating and would like even more on how all of this affects the warming of the oceans. One thing I've read is that the warming seas have caused more problems in the mixing of the cold deeper waters and the warm upper waters.
And welcome back!
Posted by Mary at January 14, 2008 11:40 PMAwww, global warming is a hoax. I heard it on Faux News. It must be true.
Hmmm, does it seem to be getting warmer in here? Is that water I feel lapping around my ankles? Is the Pope Catholic? Does Bill O'Reilly shit in the woods? Glug. Glug.
Posted by The Oracle at January 15, 2008 03:37 AMChristina: You say ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Do you suggest that it is temperature neutral. How does this statement equate with the generalised warming that occurs in all tropical oceans during an El Nino event? Would that not add to the heat stored in the tropical oceans and affect high latitudes and ice sheets via the ocean currents? Is ENSO and the run of El Ninos of the last thirty years not connected with the warming in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere? Would not a run of La Nina events of the sort that we are currently experiencing result in a marked growth of the ice sheets in both hemispheres.
Posted by Erl Happ at January 15, 2008 05:08 AMThanks for your fine, thoughtful post, Christina. It's always important to monitor evidence regarding global warming. Thanks most of all for the penguins link!
Posted by Herman at January 15, 2008 05:44 PM