While I agree it is bit early to decide who will win in November, there certain things with Obama that can put him up in top compared to HRC against McCain. Some of the points I think will make a huge difference are
1. Media is being too friendly towards Obama. No doubt we are seeing some plagiarism charges. But it may not work out the way it happened to Biden in previous stint for presidency.
2. Race is important factor than Gender. They are already spinning that Obama will be First AA president and that is a huge change. Some of the McCain campaigners do not want to work in the campaign for fear of being labeled as racist. Look at Clintons.
3. Young v/s Old Generation gap. Media will make a big deal out of it.
4. There is nothing for Rethugs to throw at Obama other than Rezko deal which I think will be dealt by Obama campaign as race issue.
5.AA are going to flock to this election big time if he is the nominee more than the previous elections.
6. The major deal is, there are several groups which want to curtail Clinton's influence on the party and they are fighting very hard for HRC not to win the nomination and may work very hard to make sure she looses GE in case she wins the nomination.
This do not mean Obama is the best person for the job (may be better than McCain) but I think he may be in the best position to win at this time.
Posted by BKK at February 18, 2008 01:27 PMDuki led 55-38 with only 3-4 months to go before the GE. And got stomped. Why, because he looked stupid with a tank commander's helmet on. The Media can do amazing things.
Posted by T2 at February 18, 2008 01:30 PMt2,
don't forget willie horton.
Posted by Turkana at February 18, 2008 01:36 PMor Lee Atwater.
Posted by T2 at February 18, 2008 01:51 PMwhose deputies included...
karl rove and mary matalin.
Posted by Turkana at February 18, 2008 01:57 PMBREAKING: Walter "Hillary Clinton" Mondale Loses to Reagan in 49 State BLOWOUT!
Posted by Callimaco at February 18, 2008 02:37 PM"I loathe the electability arguments"
That's why you fucking losers keep losing elections.
You've got one candidate who's going to beat McCain. You have another who isn't.
Here's a hint: The one who will beat McCain has a Y chromosome.
Posted by RAM at February 18, 2008 08:23 PMI'm curious how long Obamania will last. Considering that it is basically an emotional effect, and that emotions ebb and flow, what will happen in the months between the end of the primaries and the Democratic convention in August?
It seems to me that Obamania is at its peak, I can't imagine it has anywhere left to go but down. Without the rallies and the effect of primary and caucus wins; and with the likely steady barrage of negative news, will the intensity fade?
Since it appears Obama will not have locked up the nomination, he will have to worry more than Hillary about the erosion of support. Her problem has been the "momentum" effect, but the long wait between the primaries and the convention will dampen that.
Posted by myiq2xu at February 19, 2008 12:42 AM