I don't remember 60 Senate votes as being a "Magic" mark when the GOPers had the majority.
Posted by T2 at February 25, 2008 11:45 AMAlaska will remain Republican. Those people are the salt of the earth. I'm connected with enough people in AK to say without a doubt that they will remain in the R column and will vote for the Republican candidate for president no matter who he is, McCain or Romney.
Posted by Prabhata at February 25, 2008 01:08 PMI agree about Oregon. But a great deal depends on who the Dem nominee for President ends up being. If, as seems likely, Obama closes the deal then Smith is in real trouble because he's close to McCain and Obama competes against McCain extremely well. If it's Hillary than it's going to be very tough to unseat Smith because McCain mops the floor with her in General Election polls.
If anyone can do it either way, it's Jeff Merkley.
Posted by Kevin at February 25, 2008 03:37 PMI live in Oregon. My sense is that Smith will survive, as he has done in the past.
Since I live here, I will say that from my perspective he doesn't really get any bad press from the bigger media outlets (The Oregonian and broadcast news channels).
So I think he'll hang on unless you have a bunch of pissed off partisans voting straight D all the way down the ticket. And I don't think that happens too often outside Portland and the college towns.
Posted by Voodoo Chile at February 25, 2008 04:57 PMUmmm, Prabhata,
"...and will vote for the Republican candidate for president no matter who he is, McCain or Romney."
Romney is no longer running for the nomination and has endorsed John McCain.
So, what agin is your expertise with politics in Alaska?
Posted by Bagley at February 25, 2008 05:23 PMTurkana, check this one out...one of your friends?
Posted by peter at February 25, 2008 07:33 PMUmmm, Bagley
It's possible that McCain goes up in flames, and Romney is talking about coming back. I'm covering my bets that no matter who the candidate for president with the R next to it will win AK.
If McCain goes up in flames, the only candidate that would have the support from enough Republicans to take McCain's place is the Mitt. At the Republican convention the Mitt has Wall Street, a section of the far right (Rush and Coulter types), but not the Christian right. It would be a coalition that would select the Mitt.
Posted by Prabhata at February 25, 2008 08:35 PMAnd here in Georgia, Bubba Chambliss is unopposed. Disgraceful.
Posted by me at February 26, 2008 07:25 AMIt’s way too early to know how the races will shape up. Things can happen right up until Election Day that can sway voter’s minds.
In Minnesota, we’ve had more than our share of “game-shifters”. Coleman benefited from Wellstone’s Memorial … otherwise Mondale should have maintained the Democratic seat. Wellstone got the seat initially when voter’s reacted to a mailer about his Jewish faith (from the incumbent who was also Jewish.)
Pawlenty, the Minnesota Governor being mentioned as a possible VP for McCain, has won two elections because a strong third-party candidates and weak Democrats. He was trailing in the polls a week before the election, when a Democrat on the ticket made a gaffe about ethanol … not smart in a farm state.
Coleman has been a major disappoint on the foreign relations side, but leads the Minnesota Congressional delegation in Earmarks.
The hardcore conservatives don’t like him, but will vote for him over any Democrat.
The hardcore liberals don’t like him, but they are not too happy with the leading Democrat either – Al Franken.
The independents feel comfortable with Coleman and Franken’s background in comedy is easy fodder for the Smear and Sleaze Machine.
Sad to say, but it will take a major Vote 60 movement led by the Democrats to convince Minnesotans that Coleman should not be retained.
The job would be easier with a less controversial candidate (Franken) … Congresswoman Betty McCollum would have been a shoe-in …. Or someone like Steve Novick in Oregon.
I think Jeff Merkley has a real shot at beating Gordon Smith in Oregon but we have to start getting his name and message into Smith's territory.
Jeff's been an astoundingly effective Speaker in the State House - there's a great post about some of his prowess by Jeff Alworth on Blue Oregon. His progressive credentials are extraordinary. He'd be a great junior senator to Ron Wyden.
It doesn't speak too well of our local media that such a major state legislator isn't well known for all the work he's done, but hopefully there will be some grassroots and media efforts pulling together in the weeks ahead. One thing we have to do is get the message beyond the net and into people's living rooms, where Gordon Smith is a familiar name and face.
I like Novick too and will support him if he gets the nod - he has great legal prowess and outsider credibility, but Merkley's no less progressive. It's Merkley's legislative achievements and leadership that make me lean towards him. Also the attention and support he's received from household-name Oregon Democrats (Portland Mayor Tom Potter, City Councilman Sam Adams, Gov. Ted Kulongoski, former Gov. Barbara Roberts, etc.) will certainly help.