Great post Turkana, thanks!
We definitely need to hammer home the meme, "It's the War Economy, Stupid!"
Posted by Seven of Six at March 14, 2008 10:30 AMI agree with SoS... nope, the sky didn't fall! *smirk* Great post, Turkana!
Posted by iamcoyote at March 14, 2008 10:34 AMLenghty, in depth article, full of easy to read charts. The Crash is past. Comes now Inflation.
what the nation needs to do is start taking some really radical and effective government action now.
though i dislike the phrase.
the way the various parts of our economy are weakening concurrently
suggest we are approaching the perfect economic storm.
if that happens
getting back up could take years.
getting back up in productivity and personal income would be hampered by
- the destruction of money/credit markets, loans large and small to run businesses could become prohibitively expensive
- oil and its derivatives (gasoline, diesel, plastics) are extremely expensive
- the enormous debt that the bush administration has run up in the last eight years.
- the pension obligations of the government and corporations will grow rapidly in the next few years
- the very expensive occupation of iraq will continue at least for a while and will continue to contribute to inflation
it is always easy to cry "impending disaster" with respect to one part of the economy or the other,
but this time i think economic disaster is precisely where we are headed
and not just in one sector of the economy.
Posted by orionATL at March 14, 2008 11:15 AMWell, one of my clients is a Bear Stearns exec and he apparently had to be talked off the proverbial ledge yesterday. Hope they kept him on the ground floor today because I'm sure his net worth took a big hit.
Posted by snark at March 14, 2008 11:26 AMmeanwhile, from our reigning psychopath:
"I must say, I’m a little envious," Bush said. "If I were slightly younger and not employed here, I think it would be a fantastic experience to be on the front lines of helping this young democracy succeed."
"It must be exciting for you ... in some ways romantic, in some ways, you know, confronting danger. You’re really making history, and thanks," Bush said.
What crap coming from the COWARD who avoided serving in Vietnam.
Sorry, should have pointed out in the previous post that Dear Leader was talking about Afghanistan. Ya'll remember Afghanistan? the place Bush let Osama escape
Posted by Gay Veteran at March 14, 2008 11:29 AM"confronting danger...romantic"(!) God, what a callow immature clown. Revolting.
This from combat-avoiding "Mommy, tell Daddy to get me into that champagne squadron pronto!" chickenhawk Bush-junya. And the country and MSM sit and listen to this utter shit without comment.
On the economy, don't blame the utterly worthless McOld, he's just bleating the only approved economic policy of his shitbrained conservative party---Cut Taxes!! (tm)
Economy doing well? Cut Taxes!! Economy in the crapper? Cut Taxes!! None of them "understand economics as well as they should". And they never will because, as poison-brained ideologues, they have no ability to "understand"
It's too late for much now. Paulson lamely calls for banks and mortgage lenders to have actual lending standards in future, which is a half decade late. Brilliant call, Hank, after you made your unregulated tens of millions on Wall Street, you disgusting turd.
And Bernanke pours more liquidity gas on the meltdown to try to keep house prices at over 5 times the median wage, an impossibility if mortgages are now only going to be given to people that have the abilitity to likely pay them in the future.
All while we spend over $1 trillion a year (that we don't have) on militarism and oil imperialism, which McOld is adamant needs to be continued for another 100 years. Yep, I'd say he doesn't understand economics (or anything else) as well as he should, Good Christ.
Posted by euzoius at March 14, 2008 12:33 PM"confronting danger...romantic"(!)
As cries for the bu$h twins to serve go up!
Posted by Seven of Six at March 14, 2008 01:41 PMNice to see Bernanke's Repub-led Fed directly bail out investment bank Bear Stearns with taxpayer money today, and having to use a "mechanism" that hasn't been used since the Depression. Brutal capitalism for ordinary schmoes, helpful socialism for the rich---it's a nice set up for America's super-rich (Repub) voters.
So what's the social benefit to ordinary Americans of using their tax dollars to bail out a corporate investment bank? Jobs, jobs, jobs? Not that many. Does Bear "make" anything we absolutely, positively got to have? Nope, not at all, it's a vehicle for market speculators and wealthy investors looking for even greater returns on their capital.
Does this "teach" any capitalist or banker that they better pursue proper lending and investing practices? Nope, it teaches them that they can create dubious securities, sell them off to the whole world, pay themselves humongous "bonuses", get in enormous trouble.....and the gub'mint will save them in the end.
More "conservative" policies in action....
Posted by euzoius at March 14, 2008 01:59 PMBut we can't afford to insure all our children.
Posted by snark at March 14, 2008 02:02 PMAnd the next time Bush or the rest of them open their pie holes about the "glories of the unfettered market" whattaya think the chances are that the punditocracy calls 'em on it?
Posted by snark at March 14, 2008 02:04 PMRelax about the doom and gloom already, Bush was just quoted on MSNBS that the economy will recover by mid-summer.
It was so nice of Nostradumbass to share the good news!
Posted by TIKI AL at March 14, 2008 02:45 PMHey TIKI, where've you been?
Posted by iamcoyote at March 14, 2008 03:03 PMGeorge Bush doesn't understand the economy bc it involves reading and math. I don't understand McCain's problem though
Posted by kacey at March 14, 2008 03:04 PM"unfettered market...pundits call them on it"
Dead on, but it's even worse.
These exploitative turds made an uncalcuable fortune demanding that there be no meaningful regulation of their "investment" and speculation game whatever for the past decade, and now--after the whole thing is blowing up in OUR faces---gub'mint "regulation" comes in to rescue them!
Absolutely infuriating, no matter how big a cynic one may be. And as snark implies, the "free market" crowing business press approves of the whole fucking scandal. Typical.
Posted by euzoius at March 14, 2008 03:11 PM"Compared with a year ago, consumer prices were up 4 percent in February, and the core index rose 2.3 percent"
What inflation?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/14/business/14cnd-econ.html
Posted by at March 14, 2008 04:29 PM"glories of the unfettered market"...
"unfettered market...pundits call them on it"
Dead on, but it's even worse.
What unfettered market? Are you people brain dead? Or does anything that is not a Chairman Mao style government monopolization of production qualify as an "unfettered market".
If you really think banking is anywhere near an unfettered market than you are smoking dope. It is the Basel II VaR requirements that are making the deleveraging more exacerbated than it would be otherwise. Then again VaR is your typical statist technique for assessing risk, devoid of forward progressive looking information. And if you think 6 sixma never happens you are dreaming of Never Never Land.
Of course none of these financials that got stuck with an overexposure to housing should get bailed out. Then again business isn't much different than back in the day of Carnegie, who was the master at using government regulation to protect his monopolies. Corporations love government regulation, because that is how they protect monopolies(what do you think corporate lobbyist do?). Know well that every energy bill that goes through will have the approval of a GE lobbyist, and the next traders to strike it rich will game the carbon credits market.
Posted by Jay at March 14, 2008 06:29 PMwow jay-
brain dead, chairman mao, smoking dope, never never land...
you obviously excelled at the correspondence school class on generic right wing steroetypes!
Posted by Turkana at March 14, 2008 06:53 PMThe Bush Regime has been a libertarian's wetdream: NO regulation, all the way from the Fed to the EPA
We have seen the utter moral and intellectual bankruptcy of conservatism.
btw, the Fed is lending money to banks. Guess what the collateral is......sub-prime mortgages!
so bend over taxpayers, Big Business is about to fuck you long and hard
Posted by gay veteran at March 15, 2008 06:30 AMKeeping with the tone of the thread:
psychopath, revolting, bush-junya, shitbrained, poison-brained, disgusting turd, Nostradumbass, exploitative turd, gub'mint...
*reworded so hopefully I get an answer
What unfettered market? Does any market not completely controlled by the government qualify as "unfettered"?
Prove that the banking/brokerage industry is anywhere near a free market where firms are able to compete in the absence of government regulation. Take a close look and realize that it is Basel II Value at Risk (VaR) requirements that are exacerbating the deleveraging process (Britain temporarily suspended similar regulation on insurance companies when a similar unraveling occurred in the past). VaR is completely devoid of forward looking assessments of risk and does nothing to prevent six sigma from happening (P(six sigma > 0)).
Of course none of these financials that got stuck with an overexposure to housing should get bailed out. Then again business isn't much different than back in the day of Carnegie, who was the master at using government regulation to protect his monopolies. Corporations love government regulation, because that is how they protect monopolies(what do you think corporate lobbyist do?). Know well that every energy bill that goes through will have the approval of a GE lobbyist, and the next traders to strike it rich will game the carbon credits market.
Posted by Jay at March 15, 2008 06:38 AMjay: "psychopath, revolting, bush-junya, shitbrained, poison-brained, disgusting turd, Nostradumbass, exploitative turd, gub'mint"
If you're offended then you can go clutch your pearls elsewhere.
Guess jay would also squeal like a stuck pig if the government required banks to document that mortgage borrowers had the income to actually pay the money back instead of giving loans to anyone with a pulse.
Posted by gay veteran at March 15, 2008 09:20 AMgay faggot:
"If you are offended..."
Nice non-sequitor. Not offended at all, just surprised that I get called out, while "Nostradumbass" gets a pass. Guess it all depends whether or not the point agrees with Turkana's religious ideologies or not.
Actually you don't need governments to require documentation of income. For the case of banks holding onto the mortgage it is in their best interest to document information like income about a borrower. Evolution will take care of foolish banks, as they will go out of business.
In the more recent scenario investors were purchasing the mortgages from banks without requiring documentation. As is the case with most things in life you have to fail to learn. Investors are learning their lesson, as the ones who purchased no doc loans are finding their investments selling at .20 on the dollar or worse, because no one will purchase these securities without documentation. You don't need governments to step in. If banks are ever going to sell MBS's to investors the investors will demand documentation beyond the AAA credit rating that is slapped on these things.
Maybe if we coerce banks to obtain proper documentation for a voluntary transaction between two adults, we should also coerce two adults to obtain proper documentation(list of STD's) before engaging in sex?
I think gay faggot would squeal like he's taking it up the ass if individuals were expected to be responsible investors.
If you're offended then you can go clutch your pearls elsewhere.
Posted by Jay at March 15, 2008 10:56 AM"The Bush Regime has been a libertarian's wetdream"
gay faggot:
You are ignorant as hell. Find me one libertarian that supports Bush. Just one. I don't know any. Ever hear Ron Paul speak. Based on this libertarian politician's speeches and votes "The Bush Regime has NOT been a libertarian's wetdream".
Posted by Jay at March 15, 2008 11:00 AMjay: "gay faggot"
gee, must have hit a nerve. What's next? Nigger? Spic? Yid? you can always depend on a right-winger to show their true colors
Posted by gay veteran at March 15, 2008 07:26 PMand jay, the Bush regime has been the poster child of NO regulation
libertarians....just a buch of greedy children, to hell with the rest of society
Posted by gay veteran at March 15, 2008 07:28 PMpoor jay, that closet is really small
oh well, you can always join pants pissing peter in the bunker
Posted by gay veteran at March 15, 2008 07:31 PMperfesser jay: "Keep supporting a party complicit in the destruction of our country."
But I'm not a Republican, so I don't support a party complicit in the destruction of our country.
Sorry, it's your Dear Leader that is destroying America. The Bush-Iraq recession is just the latest evidence.
Now go back to your Klan rally and read some more Rothbard, Hayek or Mises.
Posted by Gay Veteran at March 17, 2008 06:35 AM