today's news indicates al Sadr may be done with playing nice. My view is that he called his Truce because the anti-war US public and the apparent prospect of a Dem president made him think that the days of the Occupier were numbered. He could wait it out. Now he see's Bush will not reduce the force numbers and McOld could well continue the Occupation indefinitely. As I have said from day one, if the Iraqis think it is in their best interest to make us leave, they will. They have the manpower to overwhelm, and the firepower to make the Green Zone a Red Zone. If al Sadr turns up the heat sufficiently to raise US casualties by mid-summer, the failure of the Surge will be evident and McOld will be stuck with it.
Posted by T2 at March 25, 2008 06:45 AMLast year I had no doubt that the WH and the Congress would be in Democratic hands come this November. Now I am not so sure. The MSM seems to be doing everything within their power to smear both Democrats, (evidently McBush is off limits), and the Democrats are giving them all the powder they need. Last year the margin of victory was not in doubt. If Obama and Clinton keep this rancor up, we will not win the WH, at least not by the margin needed to keep the GOP from stealing the election. The ambitions of both candidates seem to be more important than keeping a Repubican out of the WH. Do either of them understand the ramifications of a Republican win? Disgusted and pissed off.
Posted by Judith at March 25, 2008 07:36 AMT2
Excellent point. In all this hoopla of surge is working, the media has not understood that there are three factors that made the violance in Iraq go down. One is that Sadr has told his army to stand down. Second is we are paying off sunni insugents. If these two factors are removed, the violance will be back to what was before the surge.
Now why Sadr is asking his army to standv down? He is hoping that US will leave if violance is down and an impression is created that things are working out in Iraq. Once US leaves, Sadr will take over Iraq and there will be an Islamic Republic similar to Iran.
Why Sunni insurgents are taking money in return for standing down? They want to survive and build up their strength as they know that they are going to end up fighting Sadr's army as soon as US leaves. It is matter of survival for them.
The third factor is the ethnic violance for last 5 years have pretty much separated Sunnis and Shias. Therefore there is not much opportunity for either of them to embark on killing the other types. Iraq's secularism is totally destroyed by this war.
Posted by suresh at March 25, 2008 07:43 AMMcCain On Iraq: "We're succeeding. I don't care what anybody says." Seems we have another person who doesn't let facts stand in his way. Well, we will see if al Sadr agrees with McCain's statement.
Posted by Judith at March 25, 2008 08:04 AMsuresh says " He is hoping that US will leave if violance is down and an impression is created that things are working out in Iraq." Yes, he WAS hoping that, but now he sees the same CNN that we do and realizes that even if deaths drop to zero, Bush and McOld have no intention of leaving, ever. Absent a Democrat in the WH (assuming they would do as they say) al Sadr now realizes he'll have to either be part of an Iraq partition under US auspices or throw the Occupier out.
Posted by T2 at March 25, 2008 08:21 AMDisgusted and pissed off.
You have every right to be.
If there is any bright point to the election it's that the republi-cons have McCain as a candidate. ROFLMAO! Hill and Obama-rama are taking the focus off of the doddering old incompetent, but the focus will eventually be back on McCain complete with photo-ops of Lieberman nibbling on his ear. Republi-cons are toxic this year both down-ticket and up-ticket.
Does the current Democratic imbroglio give McCain the lead in stating his platform? Who cares, because we all know what his "conservative" platform happens to be: The Mad King, idiot son of George, redux. More death and destruction, more war, more tax breaks for the wealthy, more oppression of the middle class and poor. No vision, no change, no difference. It's a platform that won't sell this year.
Give it a little more time, Judith. Barack will continue to do what he has done since the first charges against him of "not being black enough." He will remain a class act who continues to step outside of the fray to get his message across. Hillary will continue her campaign methodology of speaking to voters like a mother speaks to a child, complete with fond memories of dodging sniper fire...hell, even grabbing an M-16 and leading a charge against the sniper dodging bullets in an open field run...(and who has any doubts that if she gets the nod we will see her alighting from an F-22 Raptor with her codpiece all aglow sometime during February 09).
Posted by phidipides at March 25, 2008 08:59 AM
I would post a lengthy comment, but I must egress as I am under threat of sniper fire.
Posted by RAM at March 25, 2008 09:05 AMT2, I would say 'The Surge' is unraveling.
A cease-fire with Muqtada al Sadr and his loyalists in the Mahd army is showing signs of deterioration. The agreement, which has been critical to the improved security situation in Iraq, has shown signs of unraveling as his supporters shut down parts of Baghdad as part of a nationwide campaign of civil disobedience:
On Sunday, a barrage of at least 17 rockets hit the heavily fortified Green Zone and surrounding neighborhoods, where both the U.S. and Iraqi government headquarters are housed, according to police. Most of them were launched from the outskirts of Sadr City and Bayaa, both Mahdi Army-controlled neighborhoods.
On Monday, the Sadrists all but shut down the neighborhoods they control on the west bank of Baghdad. Gunmen went to stores and ordered them to close as militiamen stood in the streets. Mosques used their loudspeakers to urge people to come forward and join the protest.
Residents in two Shiite-controlled neighborhoods here said Monday that armed militias have taken over rooms in several schools and stocked them with rockets, in a sign they could be gearing up for more attacks against the U.S.-backed government.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/25/is-success-of-iraq-surg_n_93257.html
Posted by Judith at March 25, 2008 09:18 AMWell, hello Phidipides. At this point, I don't give a f*ck who the candidate is. All I want is to move forward and start the attacks against McOld and the GOP. Oh, and by-the-way, add weary to disgusted and pissed off.
Posted by Judith at March 25, 2008 09:35 AMMcCain is old and probably farts a lot and reads Rotten.com in his down time; no, he's so fuckin' old he doesn't know what a computer is.
Posted by Nathan Downey in NYC at March 25, 2008 09:37 AMAppropriately enough Obama's color is red and Hillary's is blue in this post at Pollster.com
Posted by Alvord at March 25, 2008 09:48 AMmore correctly judith, the Sadr Truce is unravelling. The Surge never ravelled, except in the Media.
Posted by T2 at March 25, 2008 09:57 AM