common wisdom is that Ms.Clinton needs a "big win" today. What constitutes a "big win"? Since she began the PA campaign six weeks ago with a lead somewhere between 15 and 20+ points, I say a "big win" must be a least 15 points, otherwise she'll have lost ground after 6 weeks of campaigning. What do the rest of you say? What's a "big win" for Ms.Clinton?
Posted by T2 at April 22, 2008 06:29 AMThe story is so simple when it's reduced to kaka, do do and neener neener. It has to be simple for the masses cause their minds must be kept clear to make the big decisions; does my breath stink; what happens after four hours, should I go to the hospital; and, am I fat in these pants?
Posted by Lahdee at April 22, 2008 06:40 AMeriposte, have i mentioned that you're my hero? btw, is your name derived from e-riposte as in electronic riposte?
Posted by kangeroo at April 22, 2008 07:06 AMit would seem to me that any win against the frontrunner is pretty big..but anything over 10%..i would say is time for obama to start considering dropping out..if you spend 9mil and lose by that much..you have a serious problem..
Posted by dennis at April 22, 2008 07:18 AMyes dennis, but with a 10 point national lead over Clinton in today's Gallup, don't you think it would be kind of hard to ask Obama to drop out? And he has the popular vote lead, and the delegate lead? I'm not sure he'd see the logic in that. Why not wait until he is behind on all of those metrics, then ask him to drop out.
Posted by T2 at April 22, 2008 07:28 AMI just came back from voting. For Hillary Clinton.
The results will be posted at about 8:30 PM.
The Obamabots are actually the ones who must not like America. Why would they engage in Republican tactics--like Ephron is doing?
The Obamabots completely miss the point. The point is that we are not in a "Fair Weather" mode. Had Obama run in 2000, after the good stuff done by Bill Clinton (for the most part), he would probably had an easier time of it.
But the Ship of State has huge holes in its hull, is listing badly, and the engine room fire has now engulfed a significant proportion of the lower decks in the aft section, and we are about to run into an area of ocean near a class 7 hurricane.
Figure it out.
There are common-enough threads (even parodied on the sitcom "The Office") where we have incompetent boob heads and inexperienced managers mangling US business. The country needs someone who can deal with this "Super Deep Shit" milieu we are in right now. (Nearly 8 years of a full-blown Consitutional Crisis will do that to a nation.) Not have a national "The Office" sitcom, starring a person whose only qualification is that they can read their lines well.
Hillary is the only one running who can deal with this. Obama and McCain are not qualified to deal with this.
I will have more to say much later this evening.
On Lehrer news hour, they did some nice pieces last night about PA. The Pittsburgh segments I liked (of course, I live near there).
Posted by Troubled American at April 22, 2008 07:34 AMHey TA, that Pittsburg piece was very informative. Great turn around there from steel production to the high tech, medical service areas. Seems to me that business has retooled itself quite well...all thing considered. Workers have adapted to new economy items better than portrayed. Obama's SF statements were off based, at least from that piece he was.
Posted by peter at April 22, 2008 08:27 AMTA:
I always get a giggle when you talk about what a mess we are in ( correctly so) and how we need the experience of Mrs. Clinton to guide us through the storm.
There was one key vote that she had to make as Sen. that was life or death and that you better never get wrong. One key vote where your inside info. could help you and where you read all the information you have available (she didn't).
And she blew it. And all of you know it.
Oh yea, the experience question is legit. but you have to LEARN from experience.
One other president had experience in his state leg. and less than 4 or 5 years in Washington and that was Abraham Lincoln. I rest my case.
Eric in Austin
Posted by ericl at April 22, 2008 09:29 AMRemember, if Sen. Clinton wins today, it's because she's a piece of crap and should drop out. If Sen. Obama wins today, its because Sen. Clinton is a piece of crap and she should drop out.
It's odd that I routinely see these oh-so-hip-and-ironic comments on TLC, referring to Hilary Clinton as "a piece of crap", or a "bitch", or using various other slurs. Odd because in the world I inhabit (as oppose to the hperventilating blogosphere), I don't know any Democrats who uses these terms to describe Hillary Clinton.
It's also odd that eriposte constantly spins out this sort of bitter irony, but can't recognize that Nora Ephron's article referenced here was pretty obviously an attempt at irony.
Posted by joel dan walls at April 22, 2008 09:34 AMEric in Austin:
First of all, I assume you mean the AUMF. Hillary did not cast the deciding vote on that. She gave a speech at the time (that was actually covered by the media) explaining her reasons.
Barry gave a speech that the media didn't report on no one even bothered to record. He has since recorded the speech and added applause. Very authentic.
As for your comparison of Barry and Abraham, ROFL.
That was really good snark!
Posted by myiq2xu at April 22, 2008 09:51 AMHas anyone seen any early turn-out data from PA?
FWIW, I'm still going with a projected 7-8% final plurality for Sen. Clinton. Some pundits have suggested that 5% or less is an outright Obama victory; 10% or more is an outright Clinton victory. Middle ground results suggest 'onward to NC'.
Either way, won't change the delegate math any. I think her rate-limiting step for Clinton will be essential financial bankruptcy unless she wins 'big'.
Posted by tfitznc at April 22, 2008 09:51 AMI don't know any Democrats who uses these terms to describe Hillary Clinton.
Go to dKos, you'll find a lot of that there. In the open thread here yesterday (though deleted) someone called her a cunt. Check out comments at TPM, MYDD, Huffpo, etc, it's SOP.
Posted by iamcoyote at April 22, 2008 10:06 AMI read an op-ed in Sunday's WaPo about Rezko. When Obama was asked during an interview why he went ahead with the real estate deal after Rezko was already under investigation, he said that Rezko had assured him that he'd done nothing wrong and Obama's "instinct" was to believe him.
These questions about his associations are not frivolous. It seems to me that Obamas instincts are to take everyone at their word, see the best in people, overlook or forgive their flaws and remain loyal to them. Admirable qualities in a friend, but not so much in a president. I understand where Obama's coming from. I'd stick by a friend in trouble too. I always think people are telling the truth--I'm gullible because I don't lie so lies from other people always surprise me. I'm a mediator and tend to believe that anything can be worked out by talking. But these are not necessarily good qualities in a president. I really don't trust Obama's judgment and I'm tired of hearing him say that these issues are trivial. Flag pin? Yeah. His friends and associates? Fair game.
Posted by CG at April 22, 2008 10:21 AMNora Ephron is amazingly stupid, hateful and niave. She's one, of the many, reasons I don't read the Huffington Post. All they need to do over there is bring on a cadre of right-wingers to bring the "foaming at the mouth" to critical levels.
So, I'm not surprised she wrote her attack on white men. Even though the average white man has no more power than anyone.
Until she figures out the class structure and the myth of upward mobility problems here in America, she's not going to realize that 95%, or so, of us are pretty much disenfranchised and are hardly Captains of our own fates. And the Republicans get those votes because they know how to scapegoat and make strawmen arguments that tap into deep resentments and fear.
Posted by Moses at April 22, 2008 11:19 AM"they were all suffering from terminal attention deficit disorder"
I didn't realize I had ADD and had no idea it was fatal.
If "they were ALL" then that means EVERY male of caucasian ancestry has ADD and according to Ms. Ephron they're all dead.
Since we've ALL passed on from FATAL ADD why is Ms. Ephron complaining?
after tonite ..if you were to include florida and michigan..she might have the popular vote..unless you want to disnefranchise those two..which they won't..they can't ..because of the ramification in the general..if she wins big tonite in pa...after all the time and money that obama has spent there..it will be an indication of his inability to attract the white blue collar people there in any significant manner...a huge problem..this has always been about who can win in the general...as it should be for any true democrat who wants to win the white house..this isn't about some idealistic sophmoric view of the world..it isn't about caucuses..and it isn't about sexism or race...it's about all the people in this country and the individual who is best suited..in expexience and character... to lead them...and i'll say this if it's a blow out..more than 15%..good-by barack
Posted by dennis at April 22, 2008 11:21 AMDouchebags like Ezra Klein and Spencer Ackerman make their meager livings by sucking up to a few people in a rarefied atmosphere of acceptable liberalism. Unless you're Paul Krugman, you'd better toe the line. Appearances on Hardball hang in the balance.
Posted by at April 22, 2008 03:35 PMKangeroo...yes.
Posted by eriposte at April 22, 2008 10:42 PM