This is before the country has gotten a chance to see the contrast between tall, young, handsome, brilliant, thoughtful, unsullied Obama and short, ancient, lopsided, "I don't know much about the economy", hotheaded, scandal-and-Bush-tied McCain. Assuming Obama manages to pull a 180 on his Clintons-bashing stuff he ought to stomp McCain.
Posted by rilkefan at May 12, 2008 03:41 PMyou underestimate mccain's teflon, and the media's complicity. the media will give obama no help.
Posted by Turkana at May 12, 2008 03:45 PMHey Turkana - I enjoyed your blog and the commenters so much over the weekend so thank you.
I think Obama is very prepared to be a sleaze so I am not worried that he will get completely run over...but the discarding of some Democrats along the way seems a bit stupid.
And people best watch that "ancient" talk - might come back and slap you. The media - made up of a bunch of older guys - wont enjoy it. And it is all about them.
Posted by the young Judith at May 12, 2008 03:52 PMRe the surprising numbers in Mass., I keep hearing people from Mass. draw parallels between Obama and the current governor, in whom so many people are disappointed. The connection they draw is Axelrod, though I'm sure some Obama supporters would claim race is the main connection.
Posted by Joelarama at May 12, 2008 03:53 PMjoelarama,
after the terrific l.a. debate- which was so substantive, and both candidates were very respectful to each other- one of the networks had penn and axelrod on afterwards. they both personify everything that is wrong with democratic party politics. all i could think was that i would be comfortable with either of the candidates in the white house, but i didn't want either of their campaign strategists within the same zip code as the oval office.
Posted by Turkana at May 12, 2008 03:59 PMI doubt the press will be able to fake the handshake picture at the debates. Or the various juicy scandals that haven't gotten out of Arizona yet (while Obama pretends to be above all the ugliness), or even just reports about his cancer issues. And (yes, anecdote, but) the dyed-in-the-wool conservative at my work hates McCain.
Seems to me Clinton has a better electoral case, but Obama shouldn't have trouble with him.
And I bet the campaign has the obvious plan in mind for beating down the press when it goes into full anti-D mode - but we'll see. HRC managed to get some traction on the misogyny in the coverage, and the media doesn't even care about that issue.
Posted by rilkefan at May 12, 2008 04:04 PMI live in MA, and Gov. Patrick has been a disappointment - though his fortunes may pick up now that his #1 opponent, House Speaker Sal DeMasi is in hot water. Suddenly gives some weight to Patrick's (and Obama's) accusations about the problems of old politics.
I also think the Maverick appeal of McCain should not be underestimated in MA - we are vulnerable to that too (like NH), esp. since we're used to GOP governors and Dem Congresses - hell, Romney even gave us universal healthcare. How bad could McCain be? ;)
Plus, Dems here voted for Clinton and we have those idiots Kennedy and Kerry out stumping for Obama, and that pissed off a lot of Dems/women. We also have a whiter, and slightly older and more female population compared to rest of the country. It's payback time! heh.
Posted by Redstar at May 12, 2008 04:20 PMObama will do better electorally than Ambinder and the rest of them want to admit. Obama will take Virginia and runs close in North Carolina. He has work to do in Missouri, as well as the Rust Belt. But he will carry the West Coast and several mountain states as well as New York and Pennsylvania. The way the map looks now is not the way the map will look on Labor Day.
Posted by Steve Soto at May 12, 2008 04:22 PMTurkana while I admire you very much how dare you give California automatically to Obama. McCain has the advantage in Orange County, San Diego County, the Inland Empire and throughout the Central Valley. Obama will be big in the Bay Area and LA but that McCain will run strong in the suburbs of LA (San Gabriel Valley) and with Arnold behind him he could carry Monterey, Sonoma, Napa and hurt Obama in Santa Clara counties. Now do the math and see if California is a gimme for Barry/
Posted by Gerald at May 12, 2008 04:46 PMTry these Turkana...
It's not just Ambinder's polls. There are many others looking just as well for McOld. Better be careful about Ma and Washington State too. Gov. Gregore is running against Dino Rossi again. Many there thought he won the last race. Republicans will be out to make sure this time...very energized. And in Conn., there's Governor Rell...very popular there.
Nice to see you're looking a little more realistic folks...at least some of you. Clinton would do much better against McOld. Over at Corrente there's a thread analysis of the differences. Tuesday's primary and next weeks will show how weak Barry is in those states. There's a bunch of fresh state polls McOld vs. McYoung. Some results!
Enjoy!!!
Posted by peter at May 12, 2008 04:53 PMpeter - kudos for insulting both Obama and McCain in the same post. Quite a feat.
Posted by the young Judith at May 12, 2008 05:04 PMTurkana -
Self-billed as the neutral observer.
What a bunch of BS.
'Stick a fork in- Clinton's done'.
Get over it and shut up.
Posted by pragmaticprogressive at May 12, 2008 05:39 PMClinton could still be the nominee, and I do know that some of her supporters will not vote for Obama after talking with them personally.
After talking to a friend who never told me why she refuses to vote for Obama I was able to persuade he to still take part on election day and vote in all the down ticket races and write in Hillary if that is what she really wants
Posted by tenacitus at May 12, 2008 05:48 PMtenacitus,
How noble of you. Does your friend have a brain?
Posted by at May 12, 2008 05:52 PMfyi - I like this map better:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May12.html
I agree with Steve.
Concerning NC, what was the turnout of Dems compared to Repukes?
People are tired of the same old republi-con shit: Lies, corruption and greed.
Well, I'm sure that declaring victory on May 20 will be all that's needed to heal the fractures in the party's base. What could go wrong?
Posted by lambert strether at May 12, 2008 06:11 PMWhere's Florida?
Posted by MaddieFL at May 12, 2008 06:12 PMtenacitus is a right wing troll, pretending to be a leftie - I've seen him doing it at other blogs as well. The right desperately needs to keep the Dems fighting, and have dispatched their flying monkeys to the comments to try to keep the animosity stirred up. There's no doubt there are others, better at hiding in plain sight than this one, trying to do the same thing. Keep this in mind, everyone, when someone you don't recognize is saying divisive crap, especially people saying they'll never vote for the other guy, or worse, will vote McCain.
Posted by iamcoyote at May 12, 2008 06:17 PMwhy are we forgetting turnout? In each and every primary,
the Democratic Party has crushed the GOP in turnout. Why are we forgetting that the country hates Bush and the GOP? I've heard interview after interview during this primary season when republicans say they just can't take it anymore. The only people I hear excited about voting for McCain are Clinton supporters, and to a lesser extent, Obama supporters. These people are not Democrats. They are fashion voters. Real people have had enough. The GOP realists are preparing the Swift Boat of all Swift Boats for Obama and the reason is simple....that's all they've got to throw up there, that and their racist base. Let's rock.
Just finished an 8 day road trip through the midwest. Six days of it was for business and the last two up in Minnesota for recreation ... Lots of meetings, social events and coffee shop evesdropping...let me tell you folks, Barack has a problem, especially in Minnesota...Try to tell me the mood is good for a Democratic president in 2008?
Forget it-it ain't gonna happen. My advice would be to try and correct the mistakes of 2008 and get ready for 2012-No amount of wishful thinking will change anything. Lot's of folks on this blog have warned of it-now it is coming.
Posted by jj at May 12, 2008 06:20 PMobama can't win.
Posted by kangeroo at May 12, 2008 06:21 PMT2 and others with this turnout monster. Democrats have out drawn Republicans in eight out of ten elections. 1984 saw 75% of all primary voters were Democrats...1972 saw 74% and 2004 saw 68%. Republicans only out drew Democrats in 2000 with 55% and 1996 with 54%. It's a rarity when Democrats aren't excited in the spring. Didn't Democrats hate Bush in 2004? Didn't Democrats hate Nixon? Didn't Democrats hate Reagan? this years turnout is only at 62%. You've got a way to go folks. We wait until November to turnout, when it counts.
And the Swift boats mantra....Not needed this year. Rev. Wright has a book coming out in October. He wants to sell books. We just need him in front of every microphone that's out there. Sure each of us will have 527's. They all will be out doing their thing. Who's to stop them. Barry Obama's not worthy of the best of all time T2.
You folks breached all the general election themes against fellow Democrats...their sting or stinger will not be as potent any more. Been there, heard that...old news as Bill Clinton would say.
Watch out for ageisms...the ancient one...McOld vs. McYoung. McYoung already is exhibiting age problems with his "57 states" the other day in Oregon.
McCain Democrats will be the new mime to replace Reagan Democrats.
Posted by peter at May 12, 2008 06:56 PMBut what about Florida?
Oh, right, it doesn't count anymore. Never mind ...
Posted by Donald from Hawaii at May 12, 2008 07:16 PMActually she does, she happens to be someone who like Hillary, she is a very intelligent woman despite your snark she is no different from the 30% of Hillary supporters who said they cannot vote for Obama.
I mentioned it because it was the first person I actually know who said that she would not vote for Obama. I also don't think that the 30% of Hillary supporters who will not vote for Obama in the general are dumb or lack a brain as you so nicely put it. Instead they just for various reasons they will not vote for him. As it is I have no dog in the fight since the foreign policy of Obama or Clinton would be the same as McCain and without a solid majority in congress they cannot pass their health care plans.
Posted by tenacitus at May 12, 2008 07:19 PMHmmm. And to think that right before Hillary went ultra negative she had a chance at winning the nomination and Barack was polling 280 to McCain's 258. She shot herself in the ass with those ads and maybe assured a victory for McCain (not!). But then again, how could you trust these poll numbers from a split Dem party without an identified candidate?
Posted by phidipides at May 12, 2008 07:36 PMNice try Phidy-cent. They know who he is now and they're finding out more and more each day. Your vetting hasn't gone that well. There is more to be found...and it will be.
McCain Democrats...
Posted by peter at May 12, 2008 08:08 PMrilkefan, I've heard a lot of people who support Obama who've said some unflattering things about the Clintons (including me) but what "Clintons-bashing stuff" are you talking about? That Hillary's not fit to be Commander-in-Chief?
Posted by Bob In Pacifica at May 12, 2008 08:18 PMGood analysis. Should be an interesting general. I think every one of both "leaners" will be in play to the end (except Oregon IMHO). Michigan is a wild card to me. Do they really care about not having delegates seated as much as MSM is touting or is the "best political team on television" just looking for things to fill a segment?
Posted by Tex at May 12, 2008 08:25 PMjj et al, maybe you just hang out with racists.
As for McCain winning California, I doubt that Cal will ever again go Republican in my lifetime. The demographics are going left, left, left. The populace has a disturbing weakness for actors, though, so if the Repubs want to make inroads maybe they ought to get that guy who played Gopher on "Love Boat" as a runningmate.
Hillary's campaign is over. The best thing for all of us to do is move one and start to focus on beating John McBush.
Posted by Brian at May 12, 2008 08:43 PMThe danger is not that Clinton voters would go for Obama, it's that they won't vote for a presidential candidate at all.
Posted by laternighter at May 12, 2008 08:56 PMtenacitus-
Actually, the 30% of Hillary supporters who won't vote for Obama ARE dumb AND lack a brain. If they, like you, think that there is no difference between Dems and GOP on policy, maybe you should try remembering who it is that appoints (lifetime) SCOTUS judges...ones that might protect Roe v. Wade and various other civil liberties that are hanging by a thread.
One more GOP appointment to the bench and its curtains for a woman's right to choose. Perhaps all the rabid feminists out there should ponder their "Hillary or Bust" position? Stevens and Ginsburg probobly won't make it another term on the bench. Who would you rather make the call on their replacements? McSame or any Dem?
Maybe you should think back 8 years to all the "conventional wisdom" that said there was no substantial difference between the parties. How'd that turn out for everyone?
Criminey...you "Hillary-bots" freakin' piss me off. She ran a horrible campaign and lost, get over it already! We need to beat the Rethugliscum worse than we need to continue to feed the Clinton's egos....
Strap on a helmet and lets get on with the larger fight!
Posted by The Spoiler at May 12, 2008 09:00 PMRemember what dogs do to polls!!
Posted by Goyo at May 12, 2008 09:12 PMbob in pacifica: "but what "Clintons-bashing stuff" are you talking about?"
I was referring to a) the misogynistic, Republican-trope character attacks - she'll say or do anything to achieve her ambitions, she's a monster, she can't govern her husband so she can't run the country, she'll make you pay for health care you can't afford, they're trying to hoodwink/bamboozle you, [several more by Plouffe]; and b) they're racists. But you know that; and you know that a lot of Obama supporters hate the Clintons at this point. So Obama would have to do some Ministry of Truth clerking - nothing _too_ unusual, of course.
Posted by rilkefan at May 12, 2008 09:14 PMDont forget "the Bradley effect". Obama often ends up several points lower in the actual election than where he polls.
Posted by Jonesy at May 12, 2008 09:21 PM'Poor People have been voting for Democrats for the last 50 years............and they are still poor.'
Charles Barkley
'Poor People have been voting for Democrats for the last 50 years............and they are still poor.'
Charles Barkley
Yet, he supports Obama this year.
Posted by Seven of Six at May 12, 2008 09:42 PM'Poor People have been voting for Democrats for the last 50 years............and they are still poor.'
Charles Barkley
Sorry petey, not this lot:
McCain romps against Obama among the 16 percent who think the country is headed in the right direction, but among the near-record 82 percent who hold a pessimistic view, Obama runs more than 20 points ahead of McCain. Similarly, about seven in 10 of those who disapprove of Bush said they would back Obama over McCain, while McCain picks up most of those who are still behind the president. The trouble for McCain is that Bush's approval has slipped to 31 percent, and has been lower than 50 percent for 38 consecutive months.
I'm a HRC supporter and I'm not voting for BO. I believe that Brazile speaks for the BO family that the Democrats do not need to rely on the votes from the blue collar white voters and the Latino voters. I never considered voting for a Republican, but since I belong to the Latino group, I am happy to oblige. Hopefully there will be enough of us to make it work for our new party, the Republican Party. Go McCain!
Posted by Prabhata at May 12, 2008 10:24 PMPrabhata, I was an Edwards supporter, now an Obama supporter. This Hispanic male (and my Hispanic wife) will be proud to vote for him.
This is what Brazile said:
BRAZILE: Well, Lou, I have worked on a lot of Democratic campaigns, and I respect Paul. But, Paul, you're looking at the old coalition. A new Democratic coalition is younger. It is more urban, as well as suburban, and we don't have to just rely on white blue-collar voters and Hispanics. We need to look at the Democratic Party, expand the party, expand the base and not throw out the baby with the bathwater.
What part of her statement is not inclusive to Hispanics or everyone for that matter. Begala twisted her words. Now the Hillary camp has run with it. For no good reason.
Yet Goya, we've got multiple sources from left leaning blogs placing McOld ahead of McYoung. Funny how that math...The Real Math gets in the way of your wishes. Who Barkley is for doesn't change the statement. Democrats have been taking poor peoples votes for fifty years plus and they still are poor. They need a 'change' agent...the Republican Party.
It's sorta funny how Edwards and his issues were sorta placed in a box and put in the closet...forgotten....
Posted by peter at May 13, 2008 03:44 AMFolks, you'd better wake up and smell the coffee if you think that Obama will be swept into the Presidency on a nationwide wave of enthusiasm. You'd think the 2000 election would have made it clear to everyone that the popular vote means nothing under the Constitution, it's all about the Electoral College and thus the battleground states. Forget about MA, CA, NY; if we have problems there all is lost anyway. Forget about "several mountain states" -- it's Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, full stop. And either Obama mends fences with Latinos, or he doesn't -- where he needs help from the underticket is the Rust Belt, principally Ohio and Western Pennsylvania. If he gets that right, we probably win (getting it right might tip West Virginia our way and Michigan as well).
Virginia? Only on the same basis enjoyed by the last Democrat to carry it, Lyndon B. Johnson -- a landslide. For a Democrat to carry Virginia he or she needs both Northern Virginia and Tidewater, and no matter how strong the "creative class" might be in Fairfax, it just won't offset the inroads McCain will make in Tidewater. Any other Republican candidate would be in trouble in Virginia, but not McCain.
Posted by HenryFTP at May 13, 2008 04:32 AMI can't say about the various trolls posting here but I will say, for MA, that Devall Patrick is a huge problem for Obama. It has nothing to do with racism and everything to do with the fact that he came in with a whole lot of charm and a mouthful of hello there and has been a huge disappointment. Now, of course, most of the republican governors were also disappointments if not outright disasters. But Patrick really got a lot of new people excited and got them to vote, and even got republicans and independents to vote for him. The problem is that he's turned out not to have been worth the struggle. So we'd definitely have been better off, from a general election standpoint, "heightening the contradictions" and having another republican loser in charge rather than giving people what they think is the poor man's obama and making obama look bad.
aimai
Posted by aimai at May 13, 2008 04:56 AMTurkana
You continue to discourage people to vote for the Democratic Nominee in any way you can.
The democrats must defeat McCain at any cost. You steadfastly even now continue to hoodwink and bamboozle using any means or words to push those who oppose Obama towards McCain. Certainly the continuing wars, and destruction of our military, are reasons enough for you to cease this opposition to the Democratic Nominee.
Those statistics are BALONEY at this stage,and I'm sure you know it. The Democrat must win to stop the war, to save our economy and my fear, save the courts and the Dept of Justice. Any pro McCain post or blog is anti Democrat.
Posted by rm forsyth at May 13, 2008 06:07 AMWhat was the recruitment number for the Marines?
142% of goal...good reason to join up? It's not broken.
Calling Turkana or anybody here a shrill against Democrats is a reach...a long reach. This is reality check...thats all.
Posted by peter at May 13, 2008 06:34 AMI stand by my comment of the military being broken by this war, surely the recruitment goal of the Marines is not your yardstick of our broken army? Where have you been? 4 and 5 tours? Huge numbers of dismembered and killed? High Suicide rates? Brain damaged? Ret urning troops unable to receive the needed services? Shame on you for calling me on that aspect of my post. You did ignore all else I posted, the narrrow views here will help McCain and shame on you.
Posted by rm forsyth at May 13, 2008 06:53 AMWHO IS THE ENEMY?
George W Bush
Dick Cheney
Grover Norquist
Karl Rove
John McSame
Joe Liberman
Get my point. If we band together and elect all Democrats we can force the changes we want.Like Universal Health Care, Social Security saved from Wall Street no matter what Obambi says. Do you think he'll veto a John Edwards style health care bill if the Democrats have 64 Senators without Liberman? No, not if wants to more than a one trick pony.
Posted by PadrePio at May 13, 2008 07:05 AMPrabhata, your dedication to social justice equals your faith in the Democratic Party. Shouldn't you go somewhere else to whoop up the Republicans?
Posted by Bob In Pacifica at May 13, 2008 07:11 AM"Obama will do better electorally than Ambinder and the rest of them want to admit. Obama will take Virginia "
Doug Wilder was way up in the polls and barely won in Virginia.
Colorado (9) has some bills the business community is really opposed too and may not be a toss up but now leaning McCain.
Posted by me at May 13, 2008 07:15 AMThere is a much more favorable projection of the electoral college over at Booman Tribune.
Right now many Democrats are telling themselves (and the pollsters) that they wouldn't vote for the OTHER candidate. Maybe some true believers will stick to their guns and write in Hillary in the fall, but most Democrats will look at their options and vote for the Democratic candidate. I'm afraid that much of Turkana's analysis comes out of his need to once again tell us that Hillary should have won.
This phase will eventually pass.
Posted by Bob In Pacifica at May 13, 2008 07:19 AMThis phase will eventually pass.
Oh sure. But sadly, you'll always be remembered as a pompous ass, bob.
Posted by iamcoyote at May 13, 2008 07:21 AMTurkana:
It will all boils down to how the white Americans have become less prejudiced. If they vote for the man who would do good for our country regardless of his skin color, Obama should win with landslide. However, if they do not become color blind, we got four more years of Bush regime.
Posted by suresh at May 13, 2008 07:25 AMGood analysis. Whether your or Steve is right really doesn't matter at this point. I think you'd both agree that the election isn't going to be a cakewalk and in any event we should never treat it as one.
Posted by kaleidescope at May 13, 2008 07:43 AMThe ambinder survey of actual electoral college votes reminds us that the popular vote really doesn't matter at all. So we can stop wishing and hoping that getting enough people to vote for obama against whatever residual racism exists in every person is going to make a difference. Its not. It is the small number of swing voters in a small number of big electoral vote states that is going to matter. Getting someone's grandma in MA to vote for Obama is going to be necessary--but getting someone who won't vote for a black guy ever to vote for him in Florida is going to be even more necessary.
aimai
Posted by aimai at May 13, 2008 07:46 AMJJfan I am not a Hillary supporter, or an Obama supporter about both candidates I am very ambivalent. However I think that calling people dumb does not help in persuading them to come to a progressive cause. If I had told my friend who is a huge Hillary booster that she was dumb instead of having a conversation with her she would not have even considered voting in the GE.
Also personally I think that the down ticket races are more important in people's everyday lives since they determine who is in congress (both state & national) as well as positions like school board, mayor, etc. We all have more control over what local officials do than over national and that is what I have been talking to many friends or acquaintances to do.
Posted by tenacitus at May 13, 2008 08:55 AMOops I meant spoiler.
Posted by tenacitus at May 13, 2008 08:57 AMThere is more to be found...and it will be.
You bet. It took 14 months for his goofy-assed minister to come around because there was so little to find. And Clinton was the one hammering it home. Hey! How did you like that Rezko trial coming back to bite republi-cons in the ass. Cool, huh!?
He's the only candidate who promised to try and hold you guys accountable. That in and of itself is a good enough reason to vote for him.
Posted by phidipides at May 13, 2008 09:00 AMturkana,
this seems like a solid analysis and easier to digest than some others. maybe after i read a few more like this i will finally begin to understand electoral college arithmetic.
thanks
Posted by orionATL at May 13, 2008 12:59 PM"There is a much more favorable projection of the electoral college over at Booman Tribune."
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Is this supposed to be a joke Bob? Jeezus, Booman has been deranged by Hillary hatred for years. His site is just as despicable as the Daily Orange.