"This will likely be neither a quick nor easy decision for Obama to make."
I agree. He has to pick someone with experience and accomplishment, but not such that it highlights Senator Obama's lack of experience and lack of accomplishment. Tough to do....
Posted by Bagley at June 10, 2008 03:39 PMremind me again what your boy bush did before being handed the tx governor's office. remind me again what he's ever done. had bush been born into obama's family, no one would have ever heard of him, and the world would be a far better place.
Posted by at June 10, 2008 03:46 PMRunning-mates rarely make much of an impact on the horse race, but in a year that I think will be tighter than many now realize, the choice of running-mates might actually make the difference.
Good point, but also worth noting that the difference is probably all on Obama's side.
McCain could pick Huckabee, Romney, Guiliani or even Dan Quayle and it probably won't lead to a detectable net change in his vote total. Sure Huckabee is a wacko fundie, Giuliani a socially liberal fascist, and Quayle the IQ of, say, GWB. But the McCain ticket is really the "not Obama" ticket this year, and even with a high-baggage VP he probably still does the same. (I had thought the wild card would be Lieberman, but Holy Joe is has so taken on the Agnew attack dog role that he's quickly losing whatever remaining centrist cred he might have brought to the ticket.)
On Obama's side there are three big questions. First, the sensitivity toward Hillary's ardent supporters. I'm pretty sure this is why he won't pick Webb, and why the female candidates have an especially good chance this year. Second, the Bradley effect. Racism is not a binary, it is a continuum. A lot of voters may be slightly queasy voting for a black -- even if he is half-white with lineage to Kenya and not West Africa (and yes, it makes a difference where racism is concerned). Add in, say, Bill Richardson (hispanic) or Hillary Clinton (identified, not really fairly, with ardent feminism) and that could be enough to generate a significant Bradley effect.
The third issue is of course, experience. Now, by this I don't mean that he nominates a Lloyd Bentsen or Dick Cheney to make people feel like there is an old hand who will help out the young President. No, I mean that Obama doesn't have a lot of experience to judge him on, so he will be judged heavily on how well he executes his choice of VP. GHWB got away with picking Quayle because, of course, GHWB had loads of experience so one bad decision wasn't a killer. But if Obama makes an obvious screw up in his VP choice, as did McGovern, then he's in real trouble.
Posted by Anonny at June 10, 2008 03:53 PMOne argument in Hillary's favor is that Barack won't have to explain why he picked someone so much more qualified than he is. He can chalk it up to party unity.
Posted by cygnus at June 10, 2008 04:43 PMA couple of comments on this post -
I really felt stupid reading it and Arbinders original. Just didn't make sense to with with all the 'in' chatter.
FWIW, I don't see Obama picking a woman unless it is Hillary. I also don't see him picking another senator (they can be better utilized in choice cabinet slots). That leaves current or former governors in swing states or maybe an obscure retired general.
My vote is with Warner or Richardson. Nunn's name has been floated so often...
Posted by pragmaticprogressive at June 10, 2008 04:51 PMWhere does it all end? Just keeps on keepin' on....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQUImPsItnA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_WY29woBxg
Uhhh...well I....if I....uhhhh...you see...
The radical B. Hussein Obama has said that his choice of VP is the most important of is career. Obama claims that his character and judgment more than make up for his lack of experience. So, who has he chosen? Eric Holder. Mr. Holder was Deputy Attorney General during the Clinton Administration. Mr. Holder is responsible for pushing through the highly controversial pardon of Mark Rich. Among the other last minute pardons Mr. Holder pushed through were those of Linda Sue Evans and Susan Rosenberg. These were WEATHER UNDERGROUND members at the same time as Obama’s friends Bill Ayres and Bernardine Dohrn. Evans and Rosenberg had been imprisoned on weapons and explosives charges.
Another member of the VP brain trust chosen by the master of character and judgment is Jim Johnson. After David Axelrod (head of the Obama campaign) shrieked about Mark Penn’s (of the Clinton Campaign) connection to Countrywide during the primaries, the Obama campaign seems rather undisturbed about their own connections to the subprime lender.
Jim Johnson is responsible for running Fannie Mae (Federal Loan Guarantee Company) into near-collapse. Jim Johnson also got millions FROM Countrywide Lending (yes THAT Countrywide) at well below market rates. These are the people vetting the choices for Vice President. How high can their ethics and morals be for such a job?
Is there another member in the House or Senate with more Domestic and Foreign Terrorist and underworld connections? And the beat goes on….
um. yeah. mccain. his terrorist and underworld connections are called the bush administration. thanks for playing!
Posted by Turkana at June 10, 2008 06:46 PMThe buzz on the GOP side seems to be with Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin. Jindal scares me a bit because he seems very likeable and accomplished, even though only 36. In fact, he kind of looks like a kid, but I think that will fade as people get used to his appearance. I don't know much about Palin, other than she has been governor for about a year of a small state (in population, not size), and she seems like a bit too obvious a reach for the female vote.
On the Dem side, I like Brian Schweitzer, but he can't guarantee much in terms of EVs. I think Ted Strickland is the logical choice, a very popular governor of Ground Zero in the swing states. If we win Ohio, we win the election about 80% of the time, according to superstat guy Nate Silver at 538.com.
Bill Richardson would be the worst possible choice. A terrible campaigner, with possible ethical issues to deal with, he guarantees 5 EVs (NM) and that's it. Sebelius is an interesting choice, but doesn't really help electorally in any specific state that I can see. The three Virginia candidates all have drawbacks: Warner doesn't seem interested in the job, Webb has the woman problem and is not much of a campaigner, and Kaine is also a pedestrian campaigner who is apparently not that well-liked in VA.
All in all, Strickland is the guy. We take Ohio, we win (probably).
dexter,
stricklnd today categorically ruled out being the running mate.
Posted by Turkana at June 10, 2008 08:01 PMReally? That's too bad.
Posted by Dexter at June 10, 2008 08:20 PMNext to the president, the most crucial position is the vice-president, as Cheney's has taught us. It is extremely important who that choice is, as a 'heart beat away from the presidency' is a fact. More important is to select someone who can run and win the next presidency.
If Obama were to chose a woman, it would have to be Hillary. To select a woman other than Hillary would anger her supporters even more. Obama is in a tough position, as he has to run with someone with experience, but at the same time, someone who will reflect his 'change' policy.
Posted by Judith#1 at June 11, 2008 03:16 AMTo anon up there after Bagley, Ann Richards handed the Governor's house to Bush???? Don't think so...she was a hard campaigner, a great Democrat...you seem to be throwing her under the bus with your comment.
This campaign has done a lot of that this year.
Jindal needs to stay in Louisiana. He's getting great reviews for the work he's done so far. Palin is another reformer, she probably needs to stay in Alaska this year...she's expecting her fifth child. I'd like to see Gov. Lingle from Hawaii.
Posted by peter at June 11, 2008 07:32 AMYuck. Jim Webb, yet another misogynist. I'm sure the Obamabots will have no trouble supporting more sexism, but forget women voters.
Posted by at June 11, 2008 07:55 AMshe's expecting her fifth child.
Palin's baby was born about a month ago and has Down's Syndrome.
I do not think that she would want the job. She has enough to do cleaning up Alaska.
Posted by Anjha at June 11, 2008 08:37 AMThanks Anjha, wasn't aware of that. She is working very hard to do just that.
Posted by peter at June 11, 2008 08:59 AM"To anon up there after Bagley, Ann Richards handed the Governor's house to Bush???? Don't think so...she was a hard campaigner, a great Democrat...you seem to be throwing her under the bus with your comment."
There was also some nasty dirty GOP tricks and rumors about Richards which played to Bush's benefit.
Posted by Judith#1 at June 11, 2008 03:05 PM