The US and Israel have had military advisors in Georgia for months. At the end of July, some 1,000 US military personnel participated in joint military "exercises" in Georgia. I find it hard to believe that the US didn't give the go ahead in Georgia's bid to retake and control South Ossieta.
The brutal assault on South Ossieta's capitol by Georgia that killed several hundred civilians (1500 by some reports) and drove thousands of others fleeing accross the border into Russia was perhaps a gambit to nullify the defacto sovereignty of S.O. and be in a position to block overland supply routes from Russia through Armenia and into Iran.
A naval blockade of Iran could well be taking shape and Russia has committed itself publicly to protecting its national energy interests there.
Bush and the neocons may go out with a bang afterall. Let's hope that cooler heads at the Pentagon ignore those that would have the US commit an act of war against Iran and further test Russia's resolve.
Posted by brisa at August 11, 2008 08:23 PMA war of choice the left can get behind.
Posted by onar at August 11, 2008 09:05 PMUnder Putin, Russia has had a history of using militias and irregulars for extrajudicial murders and involvement in promoting separatist violence. This was probably what was going on in South Ossetia. The Georgian government was probably faced with constant provocations within this territory. Saakashvili, the Georgian leader thought he could just seize the territory and cut the Gordian Knot (from his point of view). Saakashvili did more than just overplay his hand; he invaded South Ossetia; and reports indicate that his army used massed artillery against civilian population, which is a war crime.
The main worry now is how far Russia intends to go. This becomes quickly a case of a Great Power beating down on a smaller nation. (where have we seen that before?) Russia started with a diplomatic advantage here, because a prior treaty obligation makes them a guarantor for South Ossetia, and hence under certain circumstances they are within their rights in a police action to protect people in South Ossetia.
But the danger here, a substantial danger, is escalation, as well as unforseen or unpredictable consequences if the Russian military keeps pushing into Georgia proper. The Russians have already projected enough power on the ground, gained air superiorty, and have blockaded Georgian ports. They have made the point, and Putin has indicated that the Georgian leadership, by its action, has pretty much forfeited its rights to govern South Ossetia.
Saakashvili will have to answer to Georgians for his reckless actions, and his misplaced belief that the West would back him, no matter how far over the top he went. There have been conflicting reports about how far Russia's military has, or has not, gone into Georgia itself. If there is Russian restraint and Georgian authorities are willing to be realistic about their present options, this crisis can be defused.
Posted by Copeland at August 11, 2008 11:48 PMYour analysis, and the criticism of Russia leveled by others in this thread, suffers greatly from being wrong in many of the assumptions that went into it:
1. South Ossetia overwhelming voted to breakaway and join North Ossetia via elections.
2. The Georgians boycotted the above elections, but would not have changed the outcome.
3. The West refused to acknowledge the breakaway as part of a geopolitical game.
4. The Georgians started ethnic cleansing of the region.
5. Russia was there on a UN SANCTIONED Peacekeeping mission to prevent further ethic cleansing.
6. Georgia has been provoking this fight for years now. Aided and abetted by the neocons and right-wingers in the press, government and general populace.
7. Georgia attacked South Ossetia, killing anywhere from hundreds of civilians to thousands in deliberate attacks against civilian targets. Not collateral damage from mistakes, but deliberate Serbian-style ethnic cleansing.
8. On Friday, the Russians asked the UN for a ceasefire and the Georgians to withdraw. The US tried to fuck Russia over on this process by inserting overly-broad language to the point they couldn't defend themselves without being in violation. Russia, rightly so, told the US to 'fuck off.'
9. Monday Russia pointed out the hypocrisy of the West in making sure Saddam was tried and hung for his "crimes against humanity" for bombing those villages why they sheild the Georgian President who has caused his military to kill thousands of innocent civilians in a terror campaign.
This isn't the Cold War all over again. We don't wear white hats here. The Russians don't wear black.
The Russians were there on a UN Sanctioned Peacekeeping mission to prevent another ethnic cleansing. The Georgians, who have been playing sophisticated propaganda game for about three, four years now have painted themselves as "the good guys" against the likes of the "Evil Empire."
Get out of your cold-war mentality. Stop falling for David's lies. Stop thinking the Russians are automatically the "bad guys."
And, if anything, we should have learned from history and viewed our horrid actions as far back as the Mexican-American War in the 1800's and realized we haven't been the good guys since... Well, never...
Posted by Moses at August 12, 2008 04:14 AMThanks for the informative comment, moses.
It's a classic----McCain slams Obama for his uppity negro speech before Berliners when Obama's "just a candidate", but then crows he's "been on the phone to Georgia" during the invasion, like he's directing events. I thought McRube was "just a candidate"?
MSM? Can you think beyond the first coffee break?
Bush was delighted with disproportionate wars of choice by the US against Iraq and by Israel against Lebanon and the Palestine Authority, both democratically elected gub'mints. Here there is strong evidence that the democratically elected Georgian leadership acted aggressively against civilian populations under Russian protection.
Russia has every right, under the "new" Iraq and Lebanon standards which Bushco celebrated, and the hazy new "terrorism" standards of the Bush Era, to react by overthrowing the Georgian government, destroying the country's infrastructure and occupying the country indefinitely. I doubt they will do this, but it's exactly what the US and Israel were allowed by the world to do to muslim nations.
If Russia allows the Georgian leadership to remain in power after this, it will be a surprise. And if Cheney supports the Georgian leaders, it's highly likely they are not only in the wrong, but corrupt as well. After 8 years of Bushism, some clear rules have emerged.
Posted by euzoius at August 12, 2008 05:53 AMI must take exception to the premise of the article: Georgia is on nobody's mind. That isn't necessarily a good thing, but I don't see that anyone cares very much about Georgia.
Posted by gtash at August 12, 2008 06:26 AMI think the right wing media and neocons can talk about nothing else, gtash.
It's an opportune return of the Russian Bear and McDolt will be talking about it non-stop.
Posted by euzoius at August 12, 2008 07:11 AMGeorgia happens to be "one of the world's first nations to adopt Christianity as an official religion."
This is the crux of the thing, right here. McCanary wants a Holy War and Georgia passed the litmus test.
Posted by MaskedVigilante at August 12, 2008 07:38 AMI wonder what happens to our military base over there? You know, Krtsanisi. And things were going so well against Al Qaeda in Georgia! Why, it's like they had never been there in the first place.
Oops, the Russians hit an oil facility. The Crawford Caligula will nuke the fuckers over that.
The last death gasp of the neo-cons is rattling out of their fetid bodies. I didn't think the end of conservatism would come with Russia. But then again, I don't care where it started. Conservatism is dead. Their last candidate is McCain. They'll take a few shitty little State elections, but it's over.
Posted by phidipides at August 12, 2008 08:39 AMMoses made some good points; but the analogy here would be between the arrogant advantage US Presidents have taken of the Monroe Doctrine, to invade, occupy, and overthrow governments in Central America, and Russia's clouded history toward many of its border states. Georgia, Ukraine, the Baltic States, have had histories of being absorbed into the greater Russian state. They have since broken away and become independent with the breakup of the Soviet Union. The United States didn't overly absorb countries in Latin America, but it reshuffled their government like a deck of cards, whenever US business interests or banks might be impacted adversely by those countries' leaders.
So not all of this can be put onto "Cold War mentality." It is not a safe option to speak of Russia overthrowing the Georgian government, or humiliating the people of Georgia with an outright military conquest and imposing a solution under military occupation. What the US has done in Iraq is not a model for international behavior.
I don't want to strain the argument by being unnecessarily critical of Russia, especially if it is their intention to show restraint and agree to conditions that can lead quickly to a cease fire and an end to the war. There are no white hats to be found anywhere in our currently hostile international environment, none in the White House or the right-wing Israeli government, either.
But let us remember it was hard to find white hats in 1914, when Austria-Hungary unleashed massed artillery on the civilian population of Serajevo.
under Bush we have ZERO moral authority to criticize Russia
Posted by gay veteran at August 12, 2008 10:19 AMWasn't Georgia one of those cool countries we could send prisoners for a good ol' torture session? Wasn't one of their favorites methods of torture boiling people?
Posted by Radix at August 12, 2008 10:38 AM I don't care where it started. Conservatism is dead. Their last candidate is McCain. They'll take a few shitty little State elections, but it's over.
Posted by phidipides at August 12, 2008 08:39 AM
Oh, you speak so silly Phidipides
You know better than that.
Thats the case? Then Obama wins in November. That will not happen, and you also know that.
Princess said "No drilling" and then "OK maybe".
It will be drill.
Congressional elections? Will not be anything close to what the Democratic party expects or hopes for. She will have to take the credit (blame) for that.
If your little drivel makes you feel better, thats fine...everyone should try to make themselves feel a little better. Reality is another thing however.
Posted by jj at August 12, 2008 12:29 PMWhat specific actions can ORDINARY US citizens take to dismantle Russia’s aggression against Georgia?
Posted by Edwin at August 13, 2008 04:11 AM