those damn clintons, trying to undermine obama!
Posted by Turkana at August 28, 2008 02:55 PMDid they start calling cellphones, or did someone lace the nation's water supply with smart pills?
Posted by TIKI AL at August 28, 2008 02:56 PMWell, I want to believe but we need a lot more data.
However, there are two measurable forces at play here. First are the disappointed Hillary supporters. I don't mean the loud PUMAs, I mean those who know deep down they will ultimately vote Obama, but aren't happy about it, and are telling pollsters they are undecided. Second, there are those who are very unhappy with Bush and McCain, but who have been hearing all that "Obama is an evil, anti-Christ, Muslim Marxist, and his wife is WORSE" rumors.
Michelle certainly quelled the fears of the second group when she spoke -- hell, it was like Oprah was up there -- she has that same middle-America appeal. Michelle probably also took a lot of the edge off of the disappointed Hillary supporters. And Hillary did the rest the next night.
So much for the "this has been a bad convention" meme.
Posted by Anonny at August 28, 2008 03:35 PMFour years ago, the party had long since unified and people more or less knew who John Kerry was. He got essentially no bump. This convention is obviously much more pivotal because it provided the platform for reuniting the Party and it lets people get to know Barack Obama under his terms.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at August 28, 2008 03:56 PM
Whata ya know...
Damn near identical post convention
polls for:
President Dukakis 88
President Gore 2000
President Kerry 2004
Posted by jj at August 28, 2008 04:21 PMSo much for the "this has been a bad convention" meme.
Exactly.
Posted by iamcoyote at August 28, 2008 04:36 PMI had no idea the fundies were actually praying for rain. What a bunch of idiots. Well, they got their answer: Nope.
Posted by iamcoyote at August 28, 2008 04:37 PMjj: I am trying to help my neighbor's crack addicted highschool dropout son whose head was run over by a SUV get a job.
Could you please tell me where he could apply to be a paid GOP troll? He can almost put a complete sentence together now, and I think he could be even more effective than you.
coyote: I got 2 free TIVOs from Direct TV when I threatened to go to Cox cable.
Posted by TIKI AL at August 28, 2008 04:46 PMThanks, TIKI, I'm gonna work that angle on Comcast. I dunno about your neighbor's kid, tho. He's prolly overqualified.
Posted by iamcoyote at August 28, 2008 05:06 PMFundies praying for rain in Denver is a great example of republican ineffective government at work.
The democrats would have hired the Colorado Ute Indians for weather change we could believe in.
Posted by TIKI AL at August 28, 2008 05:30 PMjj: I am trying to help my neighbor's crack addicted highschool dropout son whose head was run over by a SUV get a job
Posted by TIKI AL at August 28, 2008 04:46 PM
You should have tried to help him before he commenced the crack habit...or did you sell it to him?
Public school I am sure. More money should do it..send some...or are you just a talker
The democrats would have hired the Colorado Ute Indians for weather change we could believe in.
And there would have been rain, too, you could bet on it.
Check out this cool Obama Tax Cut Calculator! Fookin' McCain's still using an abacus, I bet, considering he only just discovered the internet!
Posted by iamcoyote at August 28, 2008 06:25 PMWay cool, it also shows how much higher McCain will raise your taxes. What a great site!
Posted by iamcoyote at August 28, 2008 06:29 PMDamn Coyote, that is a cool site. I just sent out a viral on it!!
Posted by Seven of Six at August 28, 2008 06:55 PMGood for you, SoS! I've been seeing it here and there and just decided to try it.
Posted by iamcoyote at August 28, 2008 07:05 PM"You should have tried to help him before he commenced the crack habit"
...we tried, but added to all the other republican failures, watching Americans die at the New Orleans Convention Center for 8 days without help finally pushed him over the edge.
Posted by TIKI AL at August 28, 2008 07:06 PMcoyote: When I typed in $500,000+ I got this:
"Your Obama Tax Cut is: You will probably not get an Obama Tax Cut"
...muck's not gonna like this.
Posted by TIKI AL at August 28, 2008 07:57 PMAll you trolls can try to pooh-pooh the election by comparing it to 88, 00 (which you guys lost, btw) and 04. But it's different this year.
I don't watch TV, as a rule, but I watched the speech. I remember Dukakis -- embarassing (at that time I was an independent). I remember Gore -- he made us cringe back then when he spoke, but at least he wasn't GWB. I remember Kerry -- weak, very weak, but at least he wasn't GWB.
Now Bill Clinton was an excellent speaker. As memerizing as Reagan, but not quite with the same folksy appeal.
But what we saw tonight was above and beyond all of those speakers. This is someone with a very special talent. This isn't Gore, Dukakis or Kerry going into the debates overly cautious and under prepared. This isn't another apologetic Democrat. Obama is an eloquent, gentleman fighter. A statesman from the old school.
There has been a lot of hand-wringing in Democratic circles this last month over the Obama campaign. I can't blame them -- as a life long Cub fan and 18-year Democrat I am overly used to losing too. However, some people have argued that Obama is employing the rope-a-dope strategy. Letting McCain throw every dirty smear he can then, when August is over, saying "Is that all you got?"
Tonight, Obama said to McCain, in effect: "Is that all you got?" He hit every single McCain smear, and threw them back at him.
Oh, and the Republicans know it. My wife, bless her, turned on Fox to see what the other side was saying. I haven't seen their faces this long since election night 2006 (of course, I probably haven't watched them since then, but you get the point). Their token woman was echoing Barbara Olsen -- saying the speech was all liberal talking points and ineffective. In other words, she is so used to putting down anything not Republican that she didn't understand what really happened. The others though -- especially Kristol and Hume -- know that they are up against a candidate with better skills than Bill Clinton and without Clinton's achilles heal of womanizing.
I was undecided between Hillary and Obama until Obama's race speech this spring, then favored Obama. I felt betrayed by him after FISA. But after this speech I'm back in his camp. The Democrats need a real fighter to lead the party -- and it looks like we may have one. Even if we don't agree on every position, he truly is a leader.
Posted by Anonny at August 28, 2008 08:51 PMTonight is a night to pity the poor trolls. They saw the speech and know they are totally screwed in November.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at August 28, 2008 09:07 PMThat is why November has the potential to be so devastating for you....how could have we lost this?
And that WILL be the case.
Posted by jj at August 29, 2008 05:33 AMAnonny, Better skills than Bill Clinton? A little early to be saying that, don't you think? After all, it's candidate Obama and President Clinton.
Posted by Radix at August 29, 2008 07:42 AMI was referring to his skills as a candidate versus those of Clinton, Radix.
As far as governing goes, Clinton's pattern was one of excessive screw ups in his first two years (remember, he LOST his first reelection bid for Governor, then came back to retake it two years later), being humbled, then coming back with a better team and better approach.
Posted by Anonny at August 29, 2008 07:57 AMUnfortunately, the error in this accumulates very fast. I was convinced it wouldn't, so made my own spreadsheet. Adding in today's Gallup shows the calculation already wildly oscillating:
August 24: O 45 M 44
August 25: O 42 M 48
August 26: O 48 M 40 (post-Michelle)
August 27: O 54 M 38 (post-Hillary)
August 28: O 48 M 44 -- wild swing back even though the three day poll trended toward Obama for 4 consecutive days
Every time it over-corrects a little bit and that adds up fast.
I wish Gallup would just let us peek at the daily result. But I understand why they don't -- the MoE is large.