A key assumption in the magic spreadsheet is that competitive states move in concert with the rest of the country. I'm guessing that competitive states actually don't move as much as the national polls, but I haven't done the math to try to figure that out more precisely. If competitive states don't move as much as everyone else, that would mean that Obama would probably be losing in Ohio, Indiana, and Nevada. As the sudden shift of last week fades into the past, the effect of national polls on the poll averages will be more subtle.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at September 22, 2008 04:44 PMGreat fishing trip to the Canadian Wilderness.
You should have been there
Not much has changed here I see.
Ca Pol mentions that "some polls put space" in the race in MINNESOTA and WISCONSIN.
You might be asleep Ca, but if you have to look at that as a positive, this thing has been long over.
You already know that.
Posted by jj at September 22, 2008 06:00 PMCAPJ, its gonna come down to the white folks. polls don't mean nothing this time.
Posted by T2 at September 22, 2008 06:22 PMNo..not the "white folks" or the "black folks"...you might want to blame it on that, but it comes down to policy and what one believes, and herein lies the problem.."folks" don't know what Mr Obama really believes in or what he stands for.
There is hope for him..if you can just register enough NON ELIGIBLE voters in various strategic areas, just maybe he can pull this off.
Bridge For Sale
Posted by jj at September 22, 2008 06:55 PMjj I am disappointed that you didn't cut and paste repug propaganda here. You are slipping. Oh, and so is McOLDFART.
Posted by angryman at September 22, 2008 07:01 PMI see jj is still in the first stage of grief.
T2, this isn't the 1980's. Obama has tended to outperform the polls. I'm sure there are people who will not vote for Obama because they are racist, but as we saw in the primaries they don't tell the pollsters they will vote for him. Nate Silver at 538 has a story up about allocating undecideds. In states with Appalachian influence, we should expect undecideds to break toward McCain. In states with higher African-American population, however, we are more likely to see a Reverse Bradley Effect as African-Americans will end up almost unanimous in support of Obama no matter what the polls say.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at September 22, 2008 07:19 PMGreat fishing trip to the Canadian Wilderness.
Catch anything?
Bridge For Sale
Were you up there talking to Caribou Barbi?
PS. This comes out in the WaPo tomorrow. McCain is unfit to lead.
I wonder when Colin endorses Obama? Condi has. Everything I see points to next week.
The cat-toy returns Take it easy on jj. He's been away for a week and didn't have front row seat watching the McCain melt down.
It should take few days to sink in. Then we should be seeing the real fun posts from him.
Obama outpolls the polls? Let's see, some polls had him up 10% in California and he lost by 10%.
He said Indiana would be the tie breaker for the nomination and he lost Indiana.
Posted by jmac at September 22, 2008 10:18 PMMcCain was in Wis 18 Sep:
The story from Jake Tapper of ABC News:
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin packed the house last week in Green Bay, Wis., at the Resch Center.
Not so today in the same arena with Sen. Barack Obama.
Pictures at By the Fault
Posted by jmac at September 22, 2008 10:23 PMIt is bad news for McCain when George Will prints that he is not fit to be President.
Posted by Judith at September 23, 2008 01:46 AM