If anyone would like to compare this analysis with that of polling analysis god Nate Silver, the magic spreadsheet's allocation of electoral votes is comparable with his analysis giving Obama a 51% chance of winning a state. On that level, this analysis agrees with his except for North Carolina and Missouri, which he gives 40% and 36% chances of going for Obama, respectively. That is a function of the magic spreadsheet's relative sensitivity to recent trends.
If Obama is able to maintain his lead for a couple more days, the spreadsheet might even kick West Virginia over to Obama. That would be Obama's ceiling unless the McCain campaign does something to rip into his own base. IMO, dumping Sarah Palin would be such an example and would bring a number of his base states into play.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at September 28, 2008 04:14 PMMcCain's only advance in the polls has come from the Palin pick and the way the corporate press/media made her a reality show star for two weeks. McCain hasn't done a damn thing for himself.
So, will McCain make the case for his presidency himself? Or is he counting on Palin to do a great job in her debate with Biden to save his campaign?
Posted by James E. Powell at September 28, 2008 05:08 PM"So, will McCain make the case for his presidency himself?"
Don't think so.
"Or is he counting on Palin to do a great job in her debate with Biden to save his campaign?"
Well, if he does, he believes in those Irish fairies. I would think about now his campaign manager is wishing she would disappear into the wilds of Alaska. She should nail it for Obama this Thrusday night.
Posted by Judith at September 28, 2008 05:25 PMQuestion: If Obama wins by a large margin and carries the states where Hillary Clinton defeated him in the primaries--Ohio, Pennsylvania, and so on--will there be any reassessment by the Clinton supporters who claimed, back in the spring, that Obama would never be able to win those states? No need to look too far for those claims, either: just go into eriposte's articles archived here at TLC.
Posted by joel dan walls at September 28, 2008 08:26 PMI supported Obama in the primaries, but there will be no need to play the I told you so card, jdw. (and especially not now) We all made arguments for our candidates which may or may not have been prescient. None of it will matter so long as Obama wins.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at September 28, 2008 08:47 PM(Sept. 28) - Barack Obama leads John McCain, 50% to 42% among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday -- just one point shy of his strongest showing of the year.
These results, from Sept. 25-27, span the time period since John McCain made the announcement that he was temporarily suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to work for a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis, and since Congressional leaders first announced progress towards the resolution of a financial bailout bill.
Evidently the political stunt didn't work.
Posted by Judith at September 28, 2008 09:58 PM