Still a long ways to go, but damn these numbers look good for us....
Posted by paradox at September 30, 2008 04:24 PMWhat do you guys think of early (very early) voting? I think it makes sense to have early voting 3 or so days before an election, but 5 weeks? Anything could happen. I would guess the only early voters would be those who are sure they'd never change their minds, but still. I don't like it. What happens if a candidate drops dead and someone else is put in? You've already voted. What if some big game-changing information comes out?
Posted by CG at September 30, 2008 04:36 PMAfter posting, I found a couple Insider Advantage polls from Ohio and Virginia with good news (+2 and +6 respectively). I'll include them with tomorrow's post.
CG, my concern with early voting is down ballot. Alot of those races are low information as it is, and early voting exacerbates the problem. Campaigns can (and do) respond by advertising earlier and for a longer period, but that takes money alot of downballot candidates don't have.
As you mention, game changing events can be a big deal as well. Edwards dropped out just before the Super Tuesday primaries, but he got alot of votes here in California since a relatively large percentage of voters use absentee ballots.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at September 30, 2008 04:51 PMGood news deserves some fun.
The lighter side of meltdowner John.
In a world gone insolvent, an unstoppable force travels from our past to destroy our future. He is . . . The Deregulator.
http://snipurl.com/3xln8
Then kick back and enjoy America’s least favorite reality game show: Drop the Regulations!
http://snipurl.com/3xlop
Press the advantage.
dk
Posted by dk at September 30, 2008 05:30 PMWhy is it that there seems to be some way that campaigns can get information about the breakdown and numbers of early voting? Didn't we "know" how many Kerry votes had been "banked" ahead of the election? Or am I misremembering that?
No one should be able to know how the "early" voting is going---at all. That allows campaigns time to react to voting going against them. Yet, someone in government is likely tabulating these early votes on a daily basis.
The law is that there can only be a "single" election. How does knowing how early voting is "going" 4 weeks before election day comply?
Posted by euzoius at September 30, 2008 06:22 PMeuzoius, this might vary by state but as far as I know election boards / secretaries of state make available to the public lists of who has voted and who has requested an absentee ballot. A well-organized campaign can tell approximately how many votes have been banked.
The choice of early voters may have been identified by campaign workers before they voted. The turnout of high performance demographics and precincts can also be judged and campaign resources can be reallocated to maximize the return on investment. The turnout in precincts where the opponent does well can also be evaluated. A Republican strategist commented a few weeks ago that they will know before election day who has won Nevada because they will see who is voting and who isn't.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at September 30, 2008 06:43 PMIf I get the ad right... here in AZ the military (or Arizonans abroad) are getting the opportunity to vote early by internet means. Due to the fact that FAX machines are almost obsolete on military facilities.
I can only think early voting would help Obama at this point. Especially the military vote, since they are donating by a margin of 6-1.
Didn't some of those early votes (military) not get counted in some states last election?
Posted by Seven of Six at September 30, 2008 07:28 PMI have already voted for Obama. There was no chance in hell that I would ever vote for McPalin. Senility and idiocy would never receive a vote from me. Obama could walk up to me and tell me to go fuck myself and I'd retort, "kiss my ass, Barack. And enjoy my vote."
Anyone who votes for McCain and his idiot sidekick is treacherous and deliberately placing the nation in peril.
Posted by The Creator at September 30, 2008 08:18 PMIn 2000 and 2004, a lot of military votes didn't get counted or were ruled invalid. I don't expect it to be any different this election either. Don't forget, the GOP intends to steal tis election also.
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Thanks, CaPJ for explaining info on early voting. I appreciate it.
I still don't like it. There must be unintended consequences galore. And it's just more for "the professionals" to game and manipulate with.
Posted by euzoius at October 1, 2008 06:01 AMI've felt, since 2000, that early voting just affords the crooks extra time to manipulate the outcome, as ez says. I do vote early in local elections sometimes. This election is going to have an unprecedented voter turnout and for convenience sake, early voting is attractive in metropolitan areas. Since I'm in a red state that will go for McPOW anyway (unless there is a miracle) I doubt the evildoers will waste much time trying to rig the vote here. So I may vote early. But we know they will cheat if they can. I am alot more concerned with disenfranchisement than ballot box tampering.
Posted by T2 at October 1, 2008 06:37 AMlet me explain to you about early voting in ohio, my home state.
the dems are bending the laws to register the lazy-a$$ dems who:
a)wouldn't otherwise register to vote and
b)wouldn't vote if their life depended on it.
so the dems figure, "hey, let's go to them and register them immediately and also get them to vote because afterall, they are lazy slugs and we need their votes to win"
so that's what's going on in ohio, like it or not. what a party you guys have!
unknown reading habits?!?!? What does that mean, and why do i care about that?
Oh, wait maybe she's read mein kaumpf. Or maybe the ny times? Ha ha
Posted by mike at October 1, 2008 10:05 AMmike f, you kinda hate democracy as a concept, don't you?
It's ok, you can admit it. Lots of wingnuts hate democracy---that's why your side cheats.
Those Demonic Dems, they work to register voters! And then encourage the slugs to actually vote! It's an outrage!
Posted by euzoius at October 1, 2008 05:15 PM