Virginia and North Carolina are good examples of how the Red State / Blue State divide is very temporary. The chaotic economy is a catalyst which Obama's ground game can take advantage of in VA, NC, IN, CO, and MO.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 6, 2008 03:38 PMtomorrows format lets "citizens" ask questions. Who knows the process?? Do the questions have to be submitted beforehand, are only McCain friendly questions allowed. If not, there is a good chance the old cuss might get a bit ticked off. Whats the question format?
Posted by T2 at October 6, 2008 03:48 PMThe voters who ask the question have been screened by Gallup to be undecided. 2/3 of the questions will come from people in the audience while the remaining 1/3 of the questions will be by e-mail. The questions are pre-screened, and a voter may not change their question.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 6, 2008 04:25 PMAh, more national reliance upon the fake "undecideds" and whatever the particular agenda might be.
I don't believe such people.
Posted by euzoius at October 6, 2008 04:37 PMThis might be a low bar to cross, but IIRC the town hall debate had much better questions from the voters than the moderators had at the other debates.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 6, 2008 04:54 PMIt's all over but the Fixin to Vote Rag:
http://snipurl.com/44tko
dk
Posted by dk at October 6, 2008 05:39 PMI got one: " Dear Commander McCain, how did being a POW prepare you for saving the World's Economy as you bravely did last week, putting your country first, and all that?"
2/3 of the questions will come from people in the audience while the remaining 1/3 of the questions will be by e-mail.
I remember the one they planted on Kerry in the 2004 town hall debate regarding abortion. It was a horrible, emotion-laden one that made it clear that the question screener was trying to pull a Kitty-Dukakis-raped-and-killed moment. Kerry handled it reasonably well, but it was a very unfair way to introduce the abortion topic into the debate, and made it almost impossible to address the topic directly. The questioner, of course, immediately after the debate went up to Bush and was totally besotted by him.
So, we'll see what they come up with this time. Somehow I figure that Obama is, as always, prepared.
Posted by Anonny at October 6, 2008 05:57 PMVoting tomorrow in Colorado. Straight Democrat, and NO on most initiatives. Lots and lots of early voting here, but I don't have any actual numbers to report.
Posted by Anonny at October 6, 2008 06:00 PMOH was the only state I really tracked in 04. Bush led almost every poll there albeit within the MoE. The fact that W was always ahead made me fear the worst.
Obama (and I should add Dean and even W himself I guess) have put so many more places in play.
NM, CO and IA look solid as does the upper midwest. NH looks good and could matter. VA looks promising, and suddenly FL is in sight.
Finally, we are making the Reps fight on their own turf instead of giving up simply b/c we don't think we have a chance (as Dems are want to do).
McCain has surrendered Michigan and must defend IN and NC... against a black guy! Things aren't looking so hot for his ticket.
I guess my point in all this is how funny it is that no time during this election have I counted on OH or felt like it is our only hope. Do I want OH to pick the right guy? Hell yes! But we have more ways to win.
Posted by midwestdem at October 6, 2008 07:36 PMI'm sad because Muck and Peter no longer post here. When the race was tight they talked their shit, now, not so much, come back little trolls. Oh thats right, that would take balls.
Posted by Joe at October 6, 2008 07:47 PMmidwestdem, it is a very good feeling that Obama has the Kerry states, IA, and NM locked up with so many paths to victory. He only needs to win NV* or CO or MO or IN or OH or WV* or VA or NC or FL.
* Practically speaking, 269-269 is good enough though obviously I think Obama will do alot better than that.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 6, 2008 08:39 PMSo what about the new CBS and Democracy Corp polls? What's going on there? So nice to see you missed me Joe, I'm touched. I'll still be around, capj knows where the ebbs and flows CAN take us from here. I wonder what a bankrupt Pakistan does to polls.
Posted by peter at October 6, 2008 08:45 PMI wonder what a bankrupt Pakistan does to polls.
Proves that everything Busch touches turns to shit.
Posted by phidipides at October 6, 2008 09:43 PMCA Pol Junkie, Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polls in 2004. I know the dynamics of polling can change in 4 years but I would feel a lot easier if the Rasmussen poll was tracking more closely with the other polls showing an Obama lead.
Posted by Craig at October 6, 2008 11:11 PMCraig: Rasmussen has Obama up 8 nationally (52-44) and leading in lots of states. I'm not sure I understand your concern. Right now Rasmussen is right in the center of the poll aggregate.
Rasmussen, in this election, has tended to be a lagging indicator of trends. They appear to use a polling model that tries to smooth out statistical spikes and noise by not adjusting their numbers much until there is a clear movement. As a result, they were the last major daily tracker to show a lead for McCain, and the last one to show a statistically significant lead for Obama.
For all those reasons the current Rasmussen numbers should be seen as very good news for Obama.
Looking at the aggregate I've been expecting Obama to hit a plateau in the 6-8 point range nationally, but he's continued to gain about 1/3rd point per day. We may see that level off this week, or even a slight adjustment down as the press focuses on the "past association" discussion. However, I expect that to be temporary. Today there are many articles from all over the place digging up McCain associations with felons of various stripes over the years (and, unlike Obama's few associations, McCain has frequently tried to intervene on their behalf), and there is already a viseral negative reaction to Palin's pitbull routine yesterday in Florida. This latest McCain attack will most likely, like everything else he has done, boomerang on him and make his poll numbers worse, even if it does give him a brief news cycle benefit.
Posted by Anonny at October 7, 2008 05:21 AMVery well put about Rasmussen, Anonny. They do a good job but their methodology is slow to follow trends. Although I think Obama is ahead by more than 2 in Virginia, Rasmussen shows how polling methodology affects results. I don't necessarily think any one poll is right, although the consensus of polls in Virginia is that Obama has a lead there outside the margin of error.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 7, 2008 08:24 AMThe national numbers were fine but I was concerned with the state by state Rasmussen numbers. I also won't be comfortable until Obama is well above any potential Bradley effect. He needs every vote he can get.
But looking at more numbers today, maybe, just maybe we can sustain this. Keep in mind another factor. If Obama wins, it will be essential that it be decisive if he is to be effective in his first few months.
And just now we might be getting a bonus. McCain is not only erratic, he appears to be veering towards the American Caesar gambit. It's dangerous territory but I suspect the odds are good that it will damage McCain even further.
Craig, I think the Bradley Effect is probably an artifact of the 1980's and 1990's. Obama generally did better than the polls in the primaries. There are certainly people who will vote against Barack Obama because of his race, but there doesn't seem to be evidence that those people tell pollsters they will be voting for him. Obama has an ace up his sleeve, though, in far more enthusiasm for the ticket and a ground campaign that is almost literally an order of magnitude better than McCain's. Pollsters relying on historical turnout rates are not accounting for it. The ground game advantage will likely make a bigger difference in Obama's favor than any Bradley Effect, if it even still exists.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 7, 2008 01:44 PM