Mary: The fact that McCain is not getting traction with the AYERS nonsense, tells me Obama has chosen not to open this can of worms...plus, Iran was going to sponser ole jon at his UN debut, making this more damning...'tuff livin' in a glass house'!!
Posted by Goyo at October 8, 2008 10:11 PMIt does seem that the Ayers attacks are succeeding only in making McCain/Palin look more desperate. McCain may have lost the election when he lost his base. And it all started way way back when McCain ran the celebrity attacks. It gave him a brief improvement in the polls, but it soured the corporate press/media. Since then, it seems that every attack ends up on his face.
I expect Obama/Biden to keep hammering the economy and, for the most part, ignoring the attacks. It would be interesting to see Obama call McCain out on this bullshit in the last debate.
Posted by James E. Powell at October 8, 2008 11:54 PMOnce again, if the media was doing their job, this story would be on the news this morning. Obama doesn't have to expose it, but someone should.
Posted by Judith at October 9, 2008 05:06 AMSeems AIG executives are planning another little trip. Right on the heels of the 'Span Weekend', fifty executives at AIG will be spending leisure time at a Ritz Carlton. I think we just got a big fuck you.
Posted by Judith at October 9, 2008 05:27 AMLater this month, an estimated 150 brokers and 50 AIG employees are planning to attend a get-together (on AIG) for the company's high-end insurance "private-client group" at the Ritz Carlton in Half Moon Bay, Calif. About 50 American International Group managers are set to attend next week's retreat at the luxurious Ritz-Carlton spa resort in California's Half Moon Bay.
WashintonPost
Posted by Judith at October 9, 2008 05:40 AMMy only question about the Palin story is if the GOP had that kind of story on Biden, would they use it?
Posted by Judith at October 9, 2008 05:49 AMI think the Obama campaign doesn't need to go here but I'm surprised that the media hasn't given all the bashing Palin's been getting about her Ayers bullshit.
Obama served on a board with a guy who was a radical decades before Obama knew him and Palin endorses a political party of radicals who currently seek to break Alaska away from the Union.
Which do you find more troubling?
Posted by snark at October 9, 2008 05:55 AMWho's the REAL Sarah Palin?
Posted by snark at October 9, 2008 05:56 AMIf the electorate doesn't know about this shit before the election, then Obama is negligent.
And how about that librul media? Gee guys, there's VIDEO, you don't even have to tape anything.
Lazy fucks.
Posted by The Creator at October 9, 2008 05:56 AMHey everyone!
The hottest fashion trend this year?
Get 'em while they're hot!
Posted by snark at October 9, 2008 06:16 AMEarly trackers for today are showing that the slight national poll movement towards McCain just before the debate has completely reversed course following the debate.
Zogby/Reuters, who seems to assume that the country has an equal amount of Democrats and Republicans, has seen a +2 bounce to Obama in their 3-day tracker to now +4. As they are the low outlier don't worry about the absolute number, just look at the trend.
R2000/Kos, OTOH, is steady at +10, but their internals show a 4 day result of +12 +9 +8 +12. The daily MOE is 5%, so it doesn't pass the significance test at 95% confidence, but if confirmed by other polls today that will also show the positive trend.
It's hard to see Obama's trend not improving after the Tuesday debate. First, overnight Nielsens showed a number marginally below what the VP debate got. It's unusual for the 2nd Presidential debate to get much higher ratings than the first, but this year the first debate was on a Friday, the lowest TV night of the week, and there had been doubt about it occurring until McCain confirmed late that morning. So, high viewership.
Second, Obama clearly won the swing voters over. Not just the "who won" question, but more importantly the questions that delved into the debate's influence on the likely votes. Obama wiped away most of the doubts about who he was and his abilties -- McCain either remain flat or introduced doubts. And for those not viewing the debate itself, the post-debate narrative was all pro-Obama. Republicans were in despair, Democrats were happy, and people talked about how "Presidential" Obama looked (yes, I hate that a such a critical choice is made on that criterion, but there it is).
The only problem is yesterday's Diageo/Hotline poll showing +1 for Obama. First, this poll has been the most volatile of all polls, perhaps because they don't seem to control for the population sample -- they have it at +2 Dem/Rep right now, which is likely low. Second, they have consistently the highest undecided/other of all the polls. Finally, they apparently got a HUGE number for McCain Sunday or Monday, so this may bounce back in a big way for Obama in two days.
All in all, the trend and the aggregate all suggest that if Obama keeps hammering the economy, health care, and ending the war he won't need to talk about McCain's long string of strange associations or of Palin at all.
Posted by Anonny at October 9, 2008 06:20 AMOn the topic of whether to bring up Palin's many problems:
Short answer: NO. Here's why.
For years I've worked at the exec level in high tech companies. Giving presentations to the exec staff, receiving presentations, etc.
As I was coached early in my career, and as I coach younger people today, Rule #1 in giving a presentation is this: Your audience can absorb and retain at most 2 simple messages in one presentation. Decide in advance what you want those two messages to be and hammer them home. Remove any distractions from the presentation.
Sometimes this is hard as the executives often want to feel they are getting a comprehensive view of a topic, but through creative use of PowerPoint you can make them feel they've gotten a full view while retaining only the one or two key messages you want them to retain.
One of the obvious ways you hammer home your one or two key messages is by explicitly listing them up front and at the end, and this can be effective. But it is most effective if you can tie the messages into something that they already deeply care about.
This "two message" rule is for a single presentation, so doesn't apply exactly to a political campaign. However, the notion that people can absorb at retain only a few messages at a time is still valid. As is the notion that the messages they will most likely retain are those that tie directly to their pre-existing concerns and worries.
Which is why Obama should continue to hammer the big three messages the swing voters deeply care about: economy, health care, end the war. Everything else is just filler to give the impression of him being a well-rounded, "comprehensive" camdidate.
Yes, knock down Ayers and knock it down forcefully. But don't go farther than that. Just note, as Michelle did on Larry King yesterday, that EVERYONE involved with improving education in Chicago, Republicans and Democrats alike, knows Bill Ayers and has worked with him on various initiatives. He's not a pariah or an outcast, and hasn't been since the 1960s.
You'll notice his team hasn't even stressed K5 since releasing the video Monday. They've realized they don't need to hit the details, they just had to point out that everyone has past associations.
Posted by Anonny at October 9, 2008 06:33 AMI've been bouncing back and forth between CNN and MSNBC the last couple weeks and it's obvious the press doesn't like McCain or Palin, though she's fun for them to cover, it seems, because she's such a nasty liar. She isn't taken seriously at all, except by her "fans." Between Tweety, Olberman, and Maddow, all of Palin's scandals are being covered extensively, so it's out there. But people are far more concerned about the economy, so there's no reason for Obama to push any of the scandals. He's looking good just by being calm, attentive, and intelligent. I think he'll win.
But I'm looking at another run by Dino Rossi for governor, and he's tied with Gregoire. It's going to be very close. Time for some work on local races, kids!
Posted by iamcoyote at October 9, 2008 07:50 AMBut I'm looking at another run by Dino Rossi for governor, and he's tied with Gregoire. It's going to be very close. Time for some work on local races, kids!
Posted by iamcoyote at October 9, 2008 07:50 AM
I guess you're in Washington State Coyote....do you get any Canadian news from where you are...it is unbelievable that the economic situation in the US is basically crushing the Conservatives up here (election here on Tuesday, a day after our Thanksgiving)...pocketbook issues are equally important to us as they are for Americans...no bank failures coming here but we get so much US news, osmosis is taking place.
Posted by Goyo at October 9, 2008 08:18 AMThe move back toward Obama continues. Hotline has him back up +6 after being only +1 yesterday. Thinking that this volatility should seriously degrade their reputation as a pollster.
Rasmussen, who is a lagging indicator, shows race tightening to +5 from +6 yesterday. This is expected -- I think we'll see the lead increase over the next two days.
Gallup will be interesting. +11 yesterday was so unreal given all the other polling that a move back to, say, +9 would not be bad news for Obama.
One thing it that Gallup is still using Registered Voters and most others are now using Likely Voters. The LV model tends to be more Republican, and historically that's valid. No one knows if that will hold this year, so LV models are a hotly debated topic amongst pollsters. However, because Gallup is using RV their numbers may stay higher for Obama.
Posted by Anonny at October 9, 2008 08:25 AMTPM has news on Troopergate.
Todd Palin finally sort-of cooperated with Troopergate in that he provided written answers to questions yesterday. This was supposed to be confidential but of course the Barney McFife campaign immediately released them to the press, thereby guaranteeing more news stories on this.
In this Palin admits he tried to get his brother in law fired but denies he was involved in the firing of Monegan, the CPS.
He claims Monegan resigned and was not fired. But then he implies that two reasons Monegan was actually fired -- I mean, resigned -- were for emailing the governor reports that she'd driven with her newborn son without a car seat and that he didn't have a state plane available enough for her trips.
Stunning. If this were a close election Obama would have to be all over it.
First, this brings to 6 (or maybe 7) the number of distinct reasons given for firing/resigning Monegan. The story keeps changing, even in writing. This is pathological lying in action.
Second, both of the two reasons given reflect poorly on Palin. There is already a strong undercurrent of comment on Palin's substandard treatment of her newborn, which the campaign rightly ignores but nevertheless is something parents are aware of. The idea of not using a car seat for a newborn in the 21st century is beyond belief. The second paints a probably accurate picture of Palin having hissy entitlement fits over "where's my plane".
Posted by Anonny at October 9, 2008 08:34 AMdo you get any Canadian news from where you are...
Heck yeah, but I haven't been watching lately, and since I changed from Comcast to Verizon tv, I've lost the CBC station, dammit! Now I'll have to wait for the next season of Doctor Who to come to BBC America. Sucks.
Posted by iamcoyote at October 9, 2008 08:34 AM"where's my plane".
It's on eBay mofo!
Posted by snark at October 9, 2008 08:37 AMSo, McCain hasn't bothered with a transition team, I hear. Does that mean he's not expecting to win, or that he's dangerously unprepared to start on "day one?"
Posted by iamcoyote at October 9, 2008 08:56 AMSo, McCain hasn't bothered with a transition team, I hear.
He's just gonna keep all the Bush people on. They all already know all the policies.
Posted by snark at October 9, 2008 09:03 AMHe's just gonna keep all the Bush people on. They all already know all the policies.
Shit, that's good.
When I first heard the story of McCain's non-transition planning I wondered how Obama could use that, and sadly thought there wasn't an angle he could use.
But THAT is brilliant. I can see it at the next debate. "Now, Senator McCain is so tied to the Bush administration that, unlike every other Presidential candidate in recent history, he's done very little work preparing for the transition should he win. Apparently Senator McCain is planning to keep on the same staff that George Bush currently has."
Posted by Anonny at October 9, 2008 09:07 AMThe Troopergate scandal is just another milestone on the "conservative" destruction of the rule of law.
The Alaskans have basically thrown in the towel and are issuing a "report", when Palin (with McRove's "lawyers") has stonewalled huge amounts of the offical record. I wonder if "executive privilege" has EVER been raised in Alaska law before?
And in our degraded republic, there isn't too much concern, just an acknowledgement that "that's the way it is".
Thanks to "conservatism", that is the way it is.
Posted by euzoius at October 9, 2008 09:15 AMBut THAT is brilliant.
Oh dear, now snark's gonna get a big head!
I wondered how Obama could use that,
Well, I suppose if McCain tries the "ready on day one" thing at the last debate (if there is one, McCain is known for chickening out, I hear), then Obama can bring it up.
euzoius, isn't the Troopergate report coming out tomorrow?
Posted by iamcoyote at October 9, 2008 09:30 AMYes, coyote, but the AK investigators were stymied from getting anywhere near a complete version of the facts---Palin refused to disclose emails from the governor's office! "executive privilege" and all. And many relevant witnesses refused to testify and give statements to the investigators.
They just want to be "done" with this now, get a "report" out there and get the lower 48 lawyer out of their state.
Repubs now refuse to allow governmental investigations into offical wrongdoing to take place---Country First, donchaknow......
Posted by euzoius at October 9, 2008 09:37 AMHer staff has decided to cooperate.
Posted by Judith at October 9, 2008 06:44 PM