To a simple-minded person like me, this looks like it is going in the wrong direction.
Posted by Shirin at October 17, 2008 04:50 PMIt has shifted a couple points in McCain's direction in the last week, although as I mentioned that slow slide might have been arrested after the debate. McCain would need to sustain this (actually at a faster rate) to make the polls competitive by election day. Then McCain would have to overcome the big enthusiasm and ground game gap with Obama and sweep every competitive state to win.
I think Nate Silver has it right that McCain has about a 6% chance of winning right now. I would prepare for a couple more points of net tightening by election day, and then I expect Obama to do significantly better than the polls.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 17, 2008 04:58 PMcool..Tweety just had some crazy GOP Congresswoman on who proceeded to call Obama, and most of the Democrats in Congress Anti-American terrorists. It's the Ayers thing, which Tweety let the person rant on unchallenged. I guess its like this-if a person comes on his show who is clearly off the tracks...just let her/him rant. Truth doesn't need enter in to it and neither, apparently, does journalism.
Posted by T2 at October 17, 2008 05:03 PMBachmann is certainly a piece of work. I was waiting for Matthews to call her on her insanity, but I think she would appear insane to anyone who doesn't still approve of Bush anyway.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 17, 2008 05:11 PMLetterman kinda nailed McCain a couple of times last night. And apparently McCain has never heard of the saying "never let 'em see you sweat".
Posted by Shirin at October 17, 2008 05:26 PMBachmann is certainly a piece of work.
Katrina Vandenhouval (sp?) was livid! She said the f-word. (facist)
Posted by iamcoyote at October 17, 2008 05:32 PMAs I understand it, iac, one of the ground game tenets was to register and vote early. If I'm correct, have you or anyone else seen anything out there on early voting?
Shirin
Nice to see you post. Z'up?
Posted by phidipides at October 17, 2008 06:14 PMTweety kept dancing around the Bachman Turner Overdrive during the last part of the show, but he NEVER would just say:" hey, this Ayers thing is a Full Bunch of Bull Sh*t". That's what amazes me, and then again not...that the Media perpetuates a completely false story, a Swift Boat if you will, that has and is so completely just baloney that any thinking citizen can easily see is b.s. But the Media won't just say "This is Bull Sh*t"......that wouldn't be "balanced". But Bachman Turner Overdrive had her 15 minutes of fame and proved to be the odds on choice for Palin's running mate in 2012....Palin/Bachman Turner Overdrive '12. What a winner.
Posted by T2 at October 17, 2008 06:25 PMThe Obama campaign letter to the US Attorney General shows us finally that we have Democrat with a spine. He is fighting pre-emptively, not waiting for the election to be over. He is fighting for Americans to have a right to vote. He is fighting for us. I can't believe I said it, "A Democrat with a spine!"
Posted by Seven of Six at October 17, 2008 06:32 PMAs I understand it, iac, one of the ground game tenets was to register and vote early. If I'm correct, have you or anyone else seen anything out there on early voting? - phidipides
You are definitely correct, and the early results have the Obama team doing very well. The polling from 5 states indicates early voters give Obama margins 15-25 points better than each state overall. Georgia also updates their early voting tabulation daily, and from the demographics it is clear that Obama is getting more of his supporters to the polls early.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 17, 2008 06:40 PMCAPJ, those are the ones I've seen, too. Cool.
p-dip, another part of the ground game is the deployment of lawyers and well-educated poll workers. People to drive people to the polls, etc. I saw at TPM that McCain is recruiting ex-firemen and -policemen, as well as the brute squad to be their reps at the polls. Just in case someone tries to steal something, I guess. Or they expect rioting?
Posted by iamcoyote at October 17, 2008 07:23 PMHey, where is eRiposte's analysis of congressional district races?! He did an awesome job in 2006 on that. I am having a hell of a time finding polling info on congressional races.
I also want those links to the state blogs that he has found. I will have to search the archives for that, but I still would like some current analysis!
Governor races too.
We have to phone call and knock on doors not just for Obama but for all of these Dem races.
Posted by Anjha at October 17, 2008 09:09 PMActually, I thought that Chris Matthews did a great job with Bachman and Pat today. He really took apart their arguments.
With Bachman he just kept asking her questions and let.her.hang.herself.
She is a complete idiot and you could see her mind spinning that she was supposed to get those talking points out but Chris was asking her some questions that she just could not quite understand how to answer with the talking points and not look like the kook that she is.
Only a few hours after that interview her opponent had received 30K in donations to combat the nutjob. It was awesome.
I think that Chris did a good job.
Posted by Anjha at October 17, 2008 09:14 PMHere's his progressive state blogs list.
It really is awesome.
Posted by Anjha at October 17, 2008 09:19 PMHey look, there's already a censure Bachman site up.
I found it via MN Campaign Report which I found via eRiposte's list.
Posted by Anjha at October 17, 2008 09:29 PMBachmann is amazing -- if/when she loses her race you can see her becoming the next Ann Coulter.
Speaking of Coulter, anyone else notice that she isn't regularly invited on TV anymore? Perhaps she appears on Fox, I wouldn't know.
Posted by Anonny at October 18, 2008 07:15 AMalthough as I mentioned that slow slide might have been arrested after the debate.
Today's samples are suggesting that. Rasmussen is back to 50-45 after a few days at 50-46. This was expected.
Keep in mind that Rasmussen is probably the realistic ceiling from McCain's perspective. They are a solid, conservative pollster. (That's conservative in the cautious sense, not political sense.) They do assume a small increase in the Dem/Rep gap this time, but are not assuming much of an increase in turnout. Which are probably the correct assumptions if you want to be cautious. They also sample a lot more people (hence their MOE of 2%) and use a mathematical model that reduces noise by taking into account the results beyond the past 3 days, and using statistical smoothing. All good practices.
Rasmussen's analysis is that there was a slight tightening before the debate but that the polling gap has been remarkably steady. They also suggest that Obama's situation is better in the swing states.
Posted by Anonny at October 18, 2008 07:25 AMSame poll, looking at internals, shows that 22% of African-Americans are voting for John McCain.
What's that about?
Posted by Mary at October 18, 2008 12:25 PMWell, Mary, what it means, among other things, is that 22% of Black Americans are not voting for a candidate simply because he is a fellow Black man. Good for them on that.
On the other hand, if they are voting for McCain it doesn't say much for their judgment over all.
Posted by Shirin at October 18, 2008 12:48 PMWell, Mary, what it means, among other things, is that 22% of Black Americans are not voting for a candidate simply because he is a fellow Black man. Good for them on that.
Nah. A poll which reports that doesn't know how to get the honest opinions of African-Americans. Other polls are getting up to 97% support for Obama among African-Americans.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 19, 2008 09:40 AM