The Powell endorsement was particularly strong, in terms of wording. It's was a lot like the endorsements of conservative papers, hitting on 4 themes:
1) Obama's centrism and pragmatism
2) Obama's sheer ability
3) Sarah Palin
4) John McCain erratic judgment, as clearly demonstrated by (3).
I wonder if we can expect this theme to be hammer for the final two weeks. It would be nice to have a series of Powell-like endorsements through that period.
Meanwhile, polls are interesting. Most polls show a tightening of the race -- R2000 for example, has gone from +11 3 days ago to +7 today, all post-debate. But Rasmussen has gone against trend, going from +4 to +6 for Obama during that time.
So, the experts have begun looking at internals. DemFromCT (Kos) and Nate (FiveThirtyEight) have both noted poll internals showing that the shift was primarily due to Republicans a) increasing enthusiasm for their ticket and b) increasing their support of their ticket, from 84% to 90% in R2k. In addition, slight movements among independents toward McCain during that time.
I'm going to speculate that this may be due to the past two weeks having relatively little coverage of Palin, and lots of press coverage of Ayers/ACORN. The less people hear about Palin, the more the swing voter is likely to vote for McCain. Ane vice versa -- the more she is out front and center, the less likely that ticket is to get coverage. If true, that certainly gives the Obama campaign clear direction for the last two weeks.
One other note is that polls seem to show that the shift has bottomed out. Which makes sense. When you are behind 8% in the polls the easiest 2% to gain back is the first 2% -- those most easily swayed. Each 1% after that gets progressively harder.
The swing states are currently undergoing a massive undercover smear campaign from McShit which will continue over the next 15 days, with millions of robocalls (which crazily have worked in the past, that's why they're doin them) to all the swing state voters. The press will exaggerately cover whatever "positive" statements about Obama McCain/Palin make, and cable news (which is all that matters) will ignore the massive underground smear campaign, just covering the "daylight" operations and even that falsely.
So continued tightening is likely. In the end, it will be up to the ground games, Repub suppression tacics and the lawyers and courts in the final days and on election day. People will have to do their part or it certainly won't happen. An Obama popular vote win (by a very substantial margin) with a McCain electoral college win (and hence the presidency) is highly possible, and is almost certainly McTurd's last strategy. 2000 all over again, but much, much more damaging.
The electoral college is now a real danger to the nation and its future. Something MUST be done about it or it will pervert our elections more and more.
Posted by euzoius at October 19, 2008 08:01 AM"after the Raiders lose".
That's the spirit!
Posted by euzoius at October 19, 2008 08:20 AMVotes in the key battle ground states will still be counted using proprietary software through a central tabulator. No one can have confidence that the reported vote totals accurately represent the number of votes cast.
There is ample evidence to suggest that organized computer vote fraud benefiting Republican candidates has been utilized since the Cleland defeat in Georgia, 2002. One can assume that it has spread in every election since. Watch for reported total descrepencies with regard to exit polling. I can already hear how "the voter didn't want to admit that they couldn't vote for a black man" from the corporate media.
Open source software, paper ballots and random audits are necessary to give credibility to the present HAVA mandated voting systems. Yet, the Dems remain silent....
Posted by brisa at October 19, 2008 08:37 AMI’ll try to check in after the Raiders lose.
Not that it matters paradox, but I picked the upset today. I'll be rooting for the Raiders.
Posted by Seven of Six at October 19, 2008 09:16 AMI would like to share in your enthusiasm, however, I can not. I think the Repugs are setting the stage to steal another election starting with calls for Federal investigations against Acorn and challenges against voters in several battleground states. They have opened the Karl Rove playbook and are using it page by page as spelled out on Friday night by KO. The goal being to win, or delegitimize Obama's election.
Brisa makes a valid point against us counting the chickens just yet. We as Dems must work like never before to push Obama over the finish like. I understand what the polls say, but we should take the lead from the candidate himself. Dems have been known to, and I paraphrase, the take defeat from the jaws of victory.
Given the disgusting underhanded tactics of the current administration, I would NOT put anything past them to ensure a positive legacy for Bush. That involves McLame/Palin being elected.
Posted by angryman at October 19, 2008 09:17 AMA couple of things:
1. The polls can move towards McCain and the electoral college can move towards Obama when the red states increase their support for McCain. If Alabama moves from 80% support for McCain to 95% it will increase the National tracking polls but won't change the electoral college at all. That is what is happening.
Daily Ntl Tracking polls mean nothing - the state polls do.
2. The corporate media is covering McCain's sleeze. I was surprised to hear Chris Matthews open Hardball on Friday with "If McCain really is the honorable guy that Obama says that he is then why is he calling people with these sleezy robo-calls?"
Then he played the calls (several times throughout the show) and kept commenting on how sleezy and untrue that they were.
I was impressed.
3. Yes, the Republicans own the machines that count the votes, however, the Dems have never been as motivated as they are now.
Look at the early voting.
The early voting is something like 80-20 for Obama.
It all comes down to turnout. There is no way that if the turnout is like we think it will be that they can steal this one. And we - every one of us - cannot allow them to steal this one.
The people are paying attention. It will not be like 2000. We have access to too much information.
Also, I do not believe that Obama would conceed like Kerry did until every vote is counted. Obama is out ahead of the suppression tactics, he is prepared. I do not believe that Obama will allow them to steal this...he will not allow us to allow them to do that.
Posted by Anjha at October 19, 2008 09:21 AMOh, and ditto on the not counting our chickens.
We cannot slow down.
We cannot be complacent.
We cannot rest on our laurels.
We must work harder and get out the vote in whatever way possible.
Posted by Anjha at October 19, 2008 09:23 AMHow about them Raiders!
Posted by Seven of Six at October 19, 2008 05:45 PM