I fixed the Virginia Rasmussen poll - I had read last week's by mistake.
I can't help but ogle the early North Carolina vote. McCain needs to beat Obama by 22% among the remaining voters to win there, but the amazing early vote demographics aren't fading. Democrats still outnumber Republicans 2:1 and the early vote turnout rate is about 50% higher among African-Americans than among white voters. Mathematically it's probably impossible to sustain that through the final results, but I don't think McCain voters are going to match that on election day.
In Georgia, the early vote turnout rate for African-Americans is 1/3 higher than for whites. Although a fair number of voter registrations are old addresses etc. I think otherwise we won't be far off if we assume that every registered African-American will vote. If and when that happens, John McCain and the Republican Party will be horribly screwed.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 27, 2008 04:23 PMIf and when that happens, John McCain and the Republican Party will be horribly screwed.
On second thought, I guess that wouldn't be so horrible, would it?
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 27, 2008 04:29 PMSo today two national polls showed significant movement to McCain -- Rasmussen and R2000 -- of 3 points, while the others were either flat or a 1 point gain for Obama.
One narrative that seems to be taking hold among poll watchers is that McCain may be gaining slight ground among undecideds but not cutting into Obama's support. Pollster.com (not Mark, but the Republican-leaning Steve) argues that McCain will take about 2/3rds of the undecideds because they tend to be closer to his demographic (male, white) but won't come close to the 90% or so that McCain needs to make this close.
Which brings us to McCain's latest, and probably final, line of attack. The share/wealth and distribute/wealth attacks are refinements of the "socialist" attacks that went nowhere, but they may work with undecideds because they are intended to appeal to latent racism. The idea is to accuse Obama of taking from hard working whites and giving to undeserving, lazy blacks. Kind of like the Reagan myth of the Cadillac-driving welfare mom. While this myth has lost some power in the past 3 decades, it still may persuade some of the undecided white males.
Of course, what McCain's argument lacks is any grounding in truth, which makes it harder to sell after Obama has so rigorously driven home the "tax cuts for any one under $250k" message. However, McCain's team is backing it up with the 527-funded attack ads using Rev Wright that started today. Hitting the race button on two accounts.
It seems like their play here is to hit hard on the race-based fears in the last week in hopes that they can get close enough in enough states to let the vote supression tactics make the difference. Which, if you ignore for a moment just how incredibly sleazy this is, is probably the most intelligent tactic they've used the whole election, which hints that they may be finally taking some outside advice from someone.
Of course, this is not without risk. Racially-based tactics can backfire in the 21st century, even if they are well-disguised, and the blowback could give the Democrats a boost in the down ticket races. Which means McCain, not surprisingly, is rejecting calls to follow Dole's lead and use his last week to minimize Congressional losses. Which is typical of me-first McCain.
I don't think this tactic will work, for a number of reasons. First, the Obama lead is too great in too many states, with lots of early votes in place, as CAPJ shows. Second, like all McCain strategies it doesn't take into account the likely response from Obama's team.
In addition, there is the question of the report today of skinheaded McCain supporters planning to massacre 102 blacks followed by a suicide attack on Obama. I'm not sure how that will influence the remaining undecideds, but coming on the heels of the Pittsburgh hoax that will at a minimum seriously defuse any last-minute stunts the McCain team may have up their sleeve.
Posted by Anonny at October 27, 2008 04:41 PMI don't think there are many truly undecided voters out there - maybe 3% - and the rest that you see in some polls just have a preference for which they want validation. If McCain gets 2/3 of the truly undecided (and that seems reasonable to me), he gains a point in the polls. The far bigger effect will be the motivation of each candidate's supporters: which likely voters don't bother and which unlikely voters show up. My eyes pop out every morning when I look at the early voting updates, and I don't think there's any reason to believe Obama supporters will be less motivated than McCain supporters among the remainder who vote on election day.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 27, 2008 05:22 PMThe "Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Virginia gives Obama a 277 vote firewall" doesn't even need New Mexico. Kerry states + IA + VA = 272
Posted by David at October 27, 2008 05:53 PMEveryday I get out the vote.
Oops, sorry, wrong Elvis Costello song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOOUtOf1--M
dk
Posted by dk at October 27, 2008 05:57 PM"I don't think there's any reason to believe Obama supporters will be less motivated than McCain supporters among the remainder who vote on election day."
Believe me, they are out there and more motivated than McCain supporters could ever hope to be.
Posted by Judith at October 27, 2008 06:26 PMWhat's the approximate size of the voter fraud Repubs are pulling this year with their patented "absentee ballots"?
If you want to find "double voting" that's where to look.
Posted by euzoius at October 27, 2008 07:56 PMWhat's the approximate size of the voter fraud Repubs are pulling this year with their patented "absentee ballots"?
euzoius, I saw somewhere today that in Ohio the request is for 1.4 million "absentee ballots".
I say give them Ohio, keep the fraud concentrated in one state. Then prove the corruption of the RNC after the election. Finally put those fradulent fucktards to bed.
So today two national polls showed significant movement to McCain -- Rasmussen and R2000 -- of 3 points, while the others were either flat or a 1 point gain for Obama.
Several News shows were making a big deal of this... One show just said the polls always tighen near the end. The other spend at least 15 minutes describing how McCain had finally hit his message and these polls indicate the "come-back kid" -- is on his way to claim victory.
Also, the shows were reading emails from listeners and one email just "blew me away" (I do not have the actual text) but basically it said "I am a democrat, but this year I will vote for McCain cause I do not want to pay higher Taxes."
This comment "floored me" cause -- the only "tax issues" are those being spouted by McCain -- Obama has said over and over -- 95% would have lower taxes.
So question to the group -- was the sender of that email really a democrat -- I doubt it, it sounds more more like so jerk -- trying spout the current line of the Right.
I am concerned with those polls showing McCain closing the gap. If they are true and if Obama supports decide "he is so far ahead, my vote won't count" there could a situation where this election is not a "landslide" --
AND I WANT IT TO BE A LANDSLIDE!
so GOTV.........
"I am a democrat, but this year I will vote for McCain cause I do not want to pay higher Taxes."
One favorite tactic of trolls is to call/write/post with the "I am a Democrat but ..." formulation. You see it here all the time. They even talk about it on the comment boards on freep, lgf, etc.
This might have been effective 8 or 10 years ago but these days it never seems to work. It's the same groupthink problem. The trolls don't understand that outside their little echo chamber no one believes their talking points, so the mere repetition of the talking points reveals them for who they are.
Posted by Anonny at October 28, 2008 06:04 AM