So, now that it seems clear that the people will overwhelmingly vote for Obama and the people's vote will give him enough electoral votes, what happens if the machines that mis-count the election give McCain the election. Down here in Georgia during our last gubernatorial election, the exit polls showed the Democrat six or seven points ahead, but the Republican was elected. All voting is done on totally electronic, no paper trail, unverifiable, Diebold (now Premier) machines.
So what happens if McCain wins?
Posted by Nobody at October 30, 2008 07:08 PMEveryone will go around saying it was the "Bradley effect"... And Fingers will point left and right, and everyone go on about their business. No one will demand recounts, no one will check into the obvious voter Fraud… After all BlackBox proved there were obvious malfunctions and alright fraud in the 2000 election (FL) and the 2004 election (OH). YET NO ONE was willing to do anything about it. Everyone assumed it was just a fringe group, and nothing would really be accomplish by “being bitter” and not just accept the “facts”………..
That being said……
Obama, is going to win in such a land-slide, that all the voter fraud, and machine malfunctions will not even put a dent in his lead…….
That is why I will continue GOTV until this election day has past.
Obama +3 Missouri, as of today.
Posted by Judith at October 30, 2008 07:42 PMObama +3 Missouri, as of today.
Is that a poll result I missed?
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at October 30, 2008 07:55 PMwhat happens if the machines that mis-count the election give McCain the election.
That's why Obama's team has 100,000 lawyers ready for election day and are recruiting more for key states like PA, NC, and VA.
This isn't like 2000 or 2004, when the Democratic candidate brought a water pistol to a machine gun fight.
In case you haven't noticed there have been a mass of court decisions over the past many weeks regarding voting, and EVERY SINGLE ONE has been won by the Democrats.
There are also (reportedly) EIGHT MILLION Obama volunteers who are taking election day off to help with the vote (I am but one). The mind boggles at the sheer number.
Organized, prepared and motivated.
Posted by Anonny at October 30, 2008 07:57 PMNate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) has his usual good post up about today's polls, and he comments specifically on the Mason-Dixon PA +4 poll and the Fox National +3 result. Go there for the full details but the summary is:
* Don't assume bias or bad polling just because the number is something you don't like.
* M-D is a good pollster but has had a 2-3 point Republican lean. Not bias, but just their system has tended to favor the Republican. Take a +9.5 aggregate average, subtract 2.5 for Republican lean, and M-D is within the MOE for the rest of the polls. No big deal, and doesn't change the picture for PA.
* Fox polling has shown no bias either way, but Opinion Dynamics is just not that good of a pollster. Thus, because they don't weigh their sample they are subject to getting a random sample that skews Republican (or Democrat) from time to time, and this time they got significantly more Republicans than last time. Doesn't make them biased, but given that they are a weak pollster, not worth worrying about a single result.
Nate also gives this little tempting tidbit at the end:
Lastly, although it's probably too early to conclude anything much about whether the Obama infomercial was successful, the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA state polling that was in the field last night seemed to contain pretty good numbers for him, slightly better than for much of the past week. Remember Nate gets access to the poll internals, so this is hopeful.
And, his chance of victory increased from 95.7% to 96.3% from yesterday, indicating overall good polling for Obama and one more day without a break to McCain.
Posted by Anonny at October 30, 2008 08:11 PMI read that McCain is campaigning in Defiance, Ohio.
Well here's an American town I've heard of. As far as I'm concerned, Defiance is notable as being the birthplace of Wild Bill Davison!
Politico breathlessly announces this:
Poll: Dead heats in 2 key swing states
Ooo. Sounds ominous for Obama. But when you read the article you find the two states are MO and NC -- which means this is not news at all, but instead in line with existing polls.
Worse, you read down and get this bit:
Towery acknowledged that the poll showed a closer-than-expected race among black Missourians – Obama took a lower-than-usual 65 percent of the group – and said that if African-Americans ultimately vote for Obama by the huge margin analysts expect, “it will make the race closer.”
65% black vote for any Democrat is just plain silly, but in this election to report a poll with that kind of split is journalistic malpractice. Clearly there is a severe problem with their sampling methodology, because they are off by at least 25% with that subgroup. The chance of that happening with a random sample, even with a very high MOE, is infinitesmal.
This is an example of why some pollsters just aren't very good.
Posted by Anonny at October 31, 2008 07:26 AMGallup national is huge for Obama today.
RV +2 to 52-41
LV-2 +2 to 52-43
LV-1 +3 to 51-43
Commentary says that last two nights were very big for Obama relative to before.
This is one tracker, not seeing a lot of confirmation from others, although the slight movements in the other trackers today are consistent with this direction.
Still, after Drudge did cartwheels over the Gallup traditional LV being +2 3 days ago I'll bet he's having heartburn with it being +8 (the highest ever) today. And with only 4 days to go.
Posted by Anonny at October 31, 2008 11:56 AM