Obama Is Up, and Fans Fear That Jinxes It
3 more days.
Posted by Anonny at November 1, 2008 08:25 AMEarly voting is on in my little red state. Every polling station has watchers with video cameras. Poor republi-KKKons! Their desire to intimidate folks at the polls is being overcome by the daylight. I always knew r-KKKons were a lower form of cock-a-roach.
Hey, did you see the look Cindy McCryptkeeper gave "Ace" McCain when he said Joe the non-plumber was McDoof's raison d'etre? It was the same look my mom gave my dad when he said he didn't need to call a furnace repairman. The look right before the big "WHOOMP" and my dad coming out with no eyebrows.
Posted by phidipides at November 1, 2008 09:52 AMHey, did you see the look Cindy McCryptkeeper gave "Ace" McCain when he said Joe the non-plumber was McDoof's raison d'etre?
I didn't, but I'll try to look it up.
By the way, those sirens you just heard were the paramedics on the way to try to revive Matt Drudge's heart.
Gallup:
RV 52-41 (no change)
LV (expanded) 52-42 (+1)
LV (traditional) 52-42 (+2)
Poor, poor Zogby. Every other pollster is seeing the national trend toward Obama and he's trumpeting his HALF DAY, 200-PERSON sample as proof that McCain has closed the gap. Maybe after Reuters terminates his contract and gets a real pollster he might be able to get business as a Republican consultant.
Meanwhile, what's stunning about Gallup is that the LV now is nearly the same as the RV. Which hints, as I've been suspecting, that this year (for the first time ever) supporters of the Democrat may vote in higher percentages than voters of the Republican.
In a general sense, the candidate preferences of the broad group of all registered voters have been remarkably steady for over two weeks now, showing little fluctuation despite both candidates' intense campaigning, the huge amount of news coverage of the election, and high levels of voter attention to the election. Obama's percent of the vote among registered voters has varied only between 50 -52% for the last 16 days, and McCain's has varied only between 41-43%.
Gallup's estimates of likely voters show more variation; these calculations take into account not only candidate preferences, but also the individual respondent's interest in the election, self-reports of intention to vote, and for the traditional model, reports of past voting history and knowledge of voting procedures. The average Obama lead over McCain among traditional likely voters since Oct. 6 has been five points, but that lead has expanded over the last several day's reports, and Obama's current 52-42% lead among this group is the largest to date. Gallup has increased its estimate of turnout in the election slightly to 64% (from the previous 60%), based on internal calculations which point toward the higher turnout number, and this 64% estimate is reflected in the traditional likely voter calculations.
Gallup's interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday shows that 27% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted. The trend in early voting has trended consistently upward on a day to day basis, moving from 7% of registered voters, who had already voted during the period of Oct. 17-19, to the current estimate of 27%. Another 8% of registered voters still indicate that they plan on voting before Election Day itself. The vote choices of these early voters -- all of whom are included in the likely voter pool since they are definite voters -- skew more toward Barack Obama than the sample average. Thus, more and more of these Obama-oriented voters' choices are being "locked in" to the likely voter pool through early voting, benefiting Obama.
Posted by Anonny at November 1, 2008 10:12 AMfabulous women bloggers
Hey, you forgot Christina Hulbe, Erin Alecto, Mary and Coyote!!
Democrats.com now taking letter submissions of "why I am voting for Obama."
The DCCC is actually addressing and pre-empting voter suppression tactics. Their email even included examples of current tactics that the Right Wing is using. (Link is a 'donate' page.)
Someone is finally taking on T Boone. I have long wondered what his real angle is.
Posted by Anjha at November 1, 2008 10:49 AMJay at Left in the West has a great post up about GOTV. He says:
Don't have enough time? You'll have less time after the election when you have to get that third job to pay for gasoline, health care, and education costs should the conservative, free-market ideologues get another four years in the White House and win control of our state legislature.
Heh.
Read the whole post. It is quick and good. An easy reminder what is at stake.
Posted by Anjha at November 1, 2008 11:02 AMApparently some overly sensitive people are all wigged out over this video, but I think that it is hillarious. Link to the video in the article.
It is great. I think that kind of emotional blackmail works.
Posted by Anjha at November 1, 2008 12:55 PMDon't sell the "hard sell" short.
At houses sporting a McCain sign, we are only able to get thru our Obama pitch by holding a tupperware container with 5,000 swarming Harvester ants in it and a 24 pack of Charmin Ultra.
Note to campaign workers: Do NOT use a rattlesnake as they will call the police.
"The look right before the big "WHOOMP" and my dad coming out with no eyebrows."
...that actually happened to my Dad when I was a small child. Some folks say the trauma that I suffered from that gas furnace explosion is one of the reasons I'm "not quite right" today.
Everyone just has to do what they can. I am in a red state so it is difficult knowing that you can work you tail off and it still may not push Obama over the top. I Have been on the phone mostly, however, I hit the street in the GOTV target campaign, good experience.
Posted by angryman at November 1, 2008 03:19 PMI fundamentally do not believe in butting into people lives on the phone or the doorstep to sell something, politics or a product, it makes no difference. It seriously irritates me when it happens in my own life, how can I then go do it myself?
Yeah, but fuck it, this is critical. I'm going to be harassing -- sorry, "canvassing" -- Coloradoans on election day to get their ass to the polls. I'll drive them there if need be and wait for them to vote then drive them home.
Bloody hell, 68% of our registered voters have already voted. How long can the lines be on election day?
And while I typed this I got my second John McCain robocall in two days. I shouted a long, and fairly creative, obsenity into the phone before hanging up. Didn't make any difference, but it sure felt good. And Senator McCain, when all this is done, I desperately want you to realize that a) all the Palin wingnuts who supported you really hate your guts and b) all of us centrists and moderate Democrats who might have supported you in 2000 now also hate your guts. You are the same spoiled, over protected brat you have always been.
Posted by Anonny at November 1, 2008 07:22 PMAnd Emptywheel, Barbara O'Brien, Echidne, Jill at Brilliant At Breakfast, Marybeth at Wampum, Liza Sabater, Ayn Clouter, eRobin, Roxanne Cooper, Jessica Valenti of Feministing, Natasha of Pacific Views, Pam Leavey, Anne Zook, and about 30 others I could rattle off without pausing for breath.
I know where I'd be without them. Less informed and less amused.
And I commend you for finding a way to aid the GOTV effort. It's more in line with what I can do, as I'm not too good at face-to-face sales with strangers either.
Posted by Kevin Hayden at November 1, 2008 08:21 PM