I also did an analysis of North Carolina like I did for Georgia. Their early voting ended up being even more impressive than Georgia, with the total early vote there being 72.5% of the total 2004 vote. Like in Georgia, the African-American turnout rate was 28% higher than for white voters. Since so many people have already turned out, their vote is partly cast in stone already. Depending on the African-American turnout on election day, I project an Obama win in North Carolina of between 2.2 and 3.5 points.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at November 2, 2008 02:50 PMI am waiting in an san diego polling place right now. I can vouch for a high African American turnout here. 25% or more of the people in line.
Posted by dilapidus at November 2, 2008 04:11 PMYou say Obama is up 7.8 in CO, but then list a poll showing him up 5. You say he's up 6.6 in VA and then list polls showing him up 3. These polls all seem pretty tight. Obama's been ahead for a while, so that makes me worry less about the MOE, but still. It's a little nervewracking.
Posted by CG at November 2, 2008 05:09 PMThe Mason-Dixon polls are already dated, as they were in the field earlier in the week when McCain was doing a little better nationally. Obama has been gaining nationally for the last four days.
Mason-Dixon is just about the most Republican leaning of the pollsters. Other polls of Colorado taken in the last week have had Obama ahead 4, 8, 9, 8, 6, 4, 10, and 7 points. Colorado has probably had over half its votes already cast and pollsters have had Obama well into the double-digits in that group. There's only so much it can move in the election day voting.
Virginia doesn't have much early voting, so wracking your nerves is a little more justified there. There may be some tightening going on, but the pollsters are likely undercounting African-Americans like they did in the primaries. 2004 exit polls indicated that 21% of Virginia voters were African-American. I don't know about Mason-Dixon's internals, but Survey USA (which had Obama +4) is figuring the electorate will be only 18% African-American and McCain will get 10% of their votes. Neither assumption is realistic. Survey USA severely underestimated Obama's support in the South in the primaries, and they appear to be doing the same thing in the general election. Even with movement toward McCain, Virginia should still end up in the mid single digits for Obama.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at November 2, 2008 05:46 PMThanks. Makes me feel a bit better.
Posted by CG at November 2, 2008 06:05 PMThe Mason-Dixon polls are already dated, as they were in the field earlier in the week when McCain was doing a little better nationally.
You know, I know Nate Silver had a post very recently saying that it is a myth that state polls are lagging indicators, but since he made that post I've been watching state polls and have been surprised how many are, even now, published 2-3 days after the polling completed. It does seem to me that they still on aggregate lag. I've gotten into the habit of checking the polling dates of all polls now.
On aggregate, the national trackers over the past 4 days have shown a slight increase (about 1.5 points) to Obama, with McCain flat.
Posted by Anonny at November 2, 2008 06:50 PMI know I'm repeating old news, but it's all about the Likely Voter model now. Obama is up 10+ in all (or almost all) the national polls among registered voters, but the LV count dips to between 12 and 4 depending on how they forecast the voting demographic.
Which is why CAPJ's analysis of black voters in Georgia and North Carolina is so interesting.
I suspect that the GOTV advantage combined with the enthusiasm of the Obama base and the intense excitement in the black community will mean that Obama not only outperforms the LV models, but for the first time ever the Democrat will outperform the RV totals.
I mean, if Obama just wins 52-46 as Pew predicts (LV model), then that means he will have underperformed the economic-based vote forecast for a generic Democrat, which makes no sense given everything else we're seeing.
Posted by Anonny at November 2, 2008 06:58 PMTerrific analysis of Georgia and NC.
I've compiled results from nearly 70 polls that separately report the presidential preferences of early voters. In all but five of them, Obama leads, often by huge margins. There is a lot of variation, due to small sample sizes, especially in the earlier polls, but more consistency as we've gotten to later polls. Over time, however, Obama has consistently been ahead.
You can see the results at: Linked text= XCurmudgeon
Posted by xcurmudgeon at November 2, 2008 07:11 PMLooks like Elizabeth Dole is going down in flames. Maybe one shouldn't run ads calling your opponent Godless.
Posted by Judith at November 2, 2008 07:35 PMPolitico is running a bunch of interesting stories from people in the field.
Two stories from North Carolina
As the old saying goes, the plural of anecdote is NOT "data". However, they are fun reads, even if they don't prove anything.
There are two things, though, that have come up a few times in these stories and in others across the web.
1) Many times I've read that people in conservative places are hesitant to admit they are voting for Obama. Now, I totally understand this ... until my neighbor started sporting an Obama bumper sticker I said nothing, and now that we've both taken the plunge and put up yard signs, others in the neighborhood are coming up to us confiding that they agree with us. (Of course, those who agree with us are outnumbered by the nastly looks we get, but what the hell.)
Even so, I didn't think this reticence to admit to Obama support would extend to lying to pollsters, or simply refusing to talk to pollsters. But after reading some of these stories I'm not sure about that:
People seem to be more intimidated by the McCain supporters and feel they have to keep their Obama support secret. One woman I canvassed with refused to canvass in her neighborhood, because she didn't want her neighbors to know she was for Obama. Another woman didn't want HER HUSBAND to know she was volunteering for Obama.
This literally would be a reverse Bradley effect -- people who avoid pollsters so they don't have to admit support for Obama. No way to quantify it, though.
2) Although we hear a lot about the vaunted Obama ground game, there are clearly areas that get missed. There was a DK diary about lack of volunteers to canvass north of St Louis -- of course the diary resulted in getting people from other saturated districts to go to that area, but you'd think the Obama team would have figured that out on their own.
Another type of story is the Obama leaner who has gotten no contacts from the Obama campaign. There are only a few of these, but it seems like the target lists are not perfect.
Even so, they are clearly covering many times more people than Democrats have in previous elections.
"There was a DK diary about lack of volunteers to canvass north of St Louis."
Well, there are areas North of St. Louis that if you packed a gun, it would be safe to canvass.
Posted by Judith at November 2, 2008 08:23 PMfivethirtyeight has a fascinating post up about Cellphone effects on poll data.
The short of it is that mixed landline/cellphone polls are showing higher margins than landline only phones (which confirms previous studies) and ... new data here ... polls that include cell phones get a much higher response rate on weekends (due to cheap weekend rates), hence more accuracy.
Now, this leads nicely into the final Gallup poll, as Gallup is one of the pollsters that includes cellphones, and the final poll includes 2 weekend days.
Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Holy shit. Gallup actually comes up with a final estimate of 53-42, their best ever for Obama, on both of the LV models, then allocates the undecideds proportionally to the candidates. It means Sunday there was another big day for Obama.
I know it's one poll. I know Gallup has been wrong in the past. But there is no way Gallup is going to be wrong by 10-11%.
Posted by Anonny at November 2, 2008 08:24 PMWell, there are areas North of St. Louis that if you packed a gun, it would be safe to canvass.
One of my favorite diaries this year, and I wish I had a link to it, was of a white guy who was canvassing for Obama in Atlanta and went to a complex called "the Manor". Right away he knew this was bad news. He later heard that this was a den of drug dealers and gangsters, and black people in the Obama office said that they would never think about going there at night. But he and his white buddy had had such a good response in black neighborhoods that they decided to go in.
They were welcomed with incredible enthusiasm. Everyone invited them in, filled out registration forms, and called other people to come over and get registered. At no point did they feel remotely threatened.
An Obama t-shirt will get you a free pass in a lot of rough neighborhoods these days. Unity indeed.
Posted by Anonny at November 2, 2008 08:31 PMForget the "blowout" scenario. We'll be lucky to win.
McCain and the Repubs have successfully turned this election into "You all hate nigg....er, socialists, remember". That was the clear intent of their ads and rhetoric for the past week and our fine citizens were able to pick up on the noble "message". Of course the MSM happily parroted every McCain "argument" exactly as stated without comment or criticism. And Repubs have energized their "base" with data about early voting by the hated negroes, as predicted.
It will be very close, and an electoral college win by McCain (with loss of the popular vote) is their goal.
Posted by euzoius at November 2, 2008 08:37 PMLooks like Elizabeth Dole is going down in flames.
Damn. After the face lifts and her age she looks like a Shar-Pei.
Well, there are areas North of St. Louis that if you packed a gun, it would be safe to canvass.
I love East St. Louis. I always drive through it when I'm in the area.
Holy shit. Gallup actually comes up with a final estimate of 53-42...
I think McCain is actually in the upper to mid-30's. The Republicans I know are tending Obama. I live in the buckle of the Bible Belt, and the true redstate nirvana. Just the Obama/Biden McCain/Palin signs are 2-1 Obama.
So...what are the plans for Tuesday evening, Judith? I think iac is giving Tiki a Trout massage and then coming to the compound. I've moved the Boeing to the left so there is plenty of room for you and your Mom to park that Airbus you guys drive around (I do appreciate you not being snobby...iac?...for driving European). Please do not allow your Mom to parachute in again. I'll not have the cat hiding in the bathroom for a solid week like in 2004. And the keys to the Bently GTC and my pool boys are off limits! Capice!? I can replace the car, but a good pool boy is hard to find.
"You all hate nigg....er, socialists, remember". That was the clear intent of their ads and rhetoric for the past week and our fine citizens were able to pick up on the noble "message".
I don't think it's working, euoz. I know there are "those" elements who buy into the "Niggra" shtick of McCain, but I hope it's limited.
Palin/Joe the plumber 2012: It'll take two idiots to equal one Busch!
The bad news is McCain's race-baiting campaign will cause many "undecided" voters to vote for McCain.
The good news is that there are far less of these people than we might have expected and far less than McCain needs to win the election.
Posted by James E. Powell at November 2, 2008 09:33 PMForget the "blowout" scenario. We'll be lucky to win. - euzoius
If you need some reassurance, look here.
The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign.
McCain needs to be quite close in the popular vote (within 2%) to have any realistic chance at the electoral college. Let your fear keep you motivated to Get Out The Vote through Tuesday.
Yes. We. Can.
Yes. We. Will.
Just to add to CAPJ's last point, here is another nugget:
Obama's favorable rating is 62% -- the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup's final pre-election polls going back to 1992.
Folks, the negative shit slinging hasn't worked. We'll be debating for years WHY it didn't work, but it didn't.
And euzoius:
Of course the MSM happily parroted every McCain "argument" exactly as stated without comment or criticism.
Look, you have to let this go. Sure, the MSM is not the friend of Democrats, but this isn't 2002 either. I've seen and heard TONS of criticism of McCain, including outright derision, from MSM reporters on TV interviewing McCain people. And written dispatches, *especially* those from AP, often call out the lies and bullshit in the first 2-3 paragraphs. AP reporter Nedra Pickler, who was the bain of the Democrats during the Kerry campaign, has been at least as hard on McCain this time around.
This isn't to say there aren't a lot of written reports, especially from AP, that sound like McCain press releases. And some of the non-Fox TV coverage is as bad as Fox. But it's no longer all one sided any more.
Posted by Anonny at November 2, 2008 10:04 PM