Call me crazy but Biden's comment sounds just about right to me. I know there are those who feel the need to keep shouting that the sky is falling 24/7 but come on. He didn't say the economy is out of the woods. He said that the administration has a plan and we can work through it. The alternative is what? The administration has no plan and we're all fucked?
Posted by snark at March 16, 2009 06:48 PMas for the markets- say nothing at all.
Posted by Turkana at March 16, 2009 07:24 PMI agree Snark, BO has a plan and it may or may not work; personally Greenspan is without one shred of credibility.
Sentiment is the key....if people start to believe things will get better, they will. As I have said before China will emerge as the economic power in this game...but Obama is doing a good job of raising sentiment and I believe it will work. There is still lots of money around but everyone is afraid to spend it...but when people are scared investors should be greedy and when peole are greedy you should be scared.
There are many people who saw the chalk marks of a massive downfall in Q4 of 2007. I watch commodity prices as the leader of the recovery and once again copper futures were on the rise today.
Low interest rates and falling house prices will bring first time buyers into the market and a turnaround by Q4 2009 is most probable.
Folks it is counterproductive to sit around and listen to economists plugging away on the same old whine. There is no quick fix, just perception of value in oversold conditions, which is where we are now.
I think Obama has a firm grip on the crisis and is working to the best of his ability to right the ship. My year one economics teacher told our class on the first day (way back last century) that he became an economist because he didn't have the sense of humor to be an accountant....'nuff said!!
Posted by Goyo at March 16, 2009 07:26 PMas for the markets- say nothing at all.
Posted by Turkana at March 16, 2009 07:24 PM
Amen to that Turkana, best for the administration to lay quiet on market prognostications...
Posted by Goyo at March 16, 2009 07:31 PMThe stock market used to be irrelevant--now, via the ubiquitous 401k account, it's become another component of the "wealth effect".
People's houses have declined in value in most places. Their retirement accounts (if they have them) have halved, unless they cleared out 12 months ago, which stats show most did not (most people make no changes to their 401k accounts at all). Trillions of dollars of wealth have been lost worldwide, with the US consumers balance sheet "contracting" at record levels.
Huge numbers of people are already massively indebted (as is their gub'mint), huge numbers have lost their jobs, jobs which will never return. Many states are bankrupt. Business investment has collapsed, and in these conditions there's no sane reason for it to return for years. At record underutilization rates, who the hell is going to "expand"?
So, when one talks about "animal spirits" and psychology and willpower, an economy can only do so much when state governments are bankrupt, half the populace is literally broke, with 20% paying an underwater mortgage, and with close to 20% unemployed or wildly underemployed, with no liquid assets.
Invest at your peril. The wages of conservatism were a destoyed economy and country.
Repubs still think it was worth it, and the corporate cable "news" shows are busily blatting 24/7 that it's the Dems fault (especially Barney Frank!!) with all their massive power and their "regulation". George Bush and three decades of Repub "conservatism" literally are not mentioned.
Posted by euzoius at March 17, 2009 06:09 AMI'm in the Geithner and Summers must go! Nope they're just perpetuating the problem, a problem they were a part of....their more concerned with the welfare of their ruling class financial buddies than the welfare of the country and the other 99% of the people in it...They must go..Obama's diddling here...these guys are taking him down a path where the results of their deeds will hit us all like a ton of bricks next election cycle. Get rid of them...and who cares if he pisses of the financial class, it's not like what they threaten to do (bring down the whole house) isn't going to happen in a few years at the rate Geithner and co are going at this point....most people despise them now anyway....for good reason.
Posted by emal at March 17, 2009 07:19 AM