I think the problem with BJP is LK Advani (his utterances about Pakistan's Jinnah being Secular has been seen as vote getting gimmicks. L K Advani in his quest to become to PM killed BJP). Also not doing enough on its campaign promises when it was in power. It could not muster enough strength to build the temple which was its main campaign theme when it came to power. Where as on the contrast, INC was able get the Nuclear deal done even when left took the support out and also its initial reactions against Pakistan after 26/11 attacks in Mumbai.
Any Non-Congress govt has to do more than Congress to show they are a viable alternative and in some states where BJP is governing you can see the difference economically, education wise and in social agendas. Gujarat is a good example. Very business friendly, per capita income is more compared to other Indian states.
I think overall it is difficult to predict any poll outcome in India based on one or two elections. The next election may also become a problem for BJP as they are looking for some leader to lead the party. They would be wise to dump Advani and bring in a more younger visionary leader.
By the way nicely researched article. Good Job Eriposte
Posted by BKK at May 19, 2009 10:46 AMIndian electorate behavior has always puzzled middle-class analysts. I don't understand why Mumbai (all 7 seats to congress) & Maharastra voted that way, when the state government is widely considered incompetent, and a failure on national security - after the Mumbai attacks. Everywhere else, the typical anti-incumbency factor has dissappeared, and analysts say it is because of competent state administrations.
My guess is that the language of welfarism worked for the congress, as it used to do with the "Remove Poverty" rhetoric of Indira Gandhi. An early signal was the popularity of the slum-dog millionaire movie. The pro-business BJP has not understood the mood change in the wake of the change in economic climate. The congress also cleverly cultivated the government "babus" by giving them good pay hikes just before the elections. These people are very helpful during elections, with intelligence inputs on local issues to high-light.
In fact, it is an unprecedented result, a pro-incumbency vote, despite a viable alternative available for voters dissatisfied with the national government.
BKK, thanks.
Naras, In Maharashtra, I think part of the explanation was that the odious Bal Thackeray and his son split the Shiv Sena/BJP vote.
Posted by eriposte at May 22, 2009 10:38 AM