Whether or not the election was stolen might be a moot point if everyone involved is acting like the election was stolen. I'm not optimistic that the current riots will amount to anything, but I'm hopeful they can organize into something larger. Apparently the only ways to communicate are shouting from the rooftops and Twitter. Good luck to everyone who wants their country back half a world away.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at June 13, 2009 10:48 PMTurkana, I think that your caution is understandable, but since 2002, when I wanted to understand something in Iraq or Iran, I have checked with Juan Cole at Informed Comment:
And although the post at The Guardian is an alternate view, Juan clearly answers this and Nate's numbers issues with cool, calm facts about the region.
Please scroll down to read the last several posts on this issue, well worth a read.
(I know Nate knows statistics, but he does not understand Iran on the level Professor Cole does, no disrespect meant)
Posted by kcbill13 at June 14, 2009 04:18 AMTurkana,
I often agree with you on many topics. This time, however, your caution is entirely misplaced. Nate's analysis, as he clearly states, is just to debunk a particular poll which has been widely promoted. On statistics, he is clearly expert. My reading of his article was that he was not saying, at all, that he had any idea whether the election was flawed or not.
Juan Cole, addresses the author's contentions in the Guardian article, that the "western journalists" just don't understand the intricacies of Iranian politics because they just report from the cities and, in essence, "hear what they want to hear". I believe he completely discredits this view. Read it.
The major reason I do not believe we have to sit around wringing our hands saying, maybe we're wrong!" is patently obvious. ALL votes in the Iranian are counted by hand. Within an hour of the polls closing, the Ahmanidinejad controlled, Interior Ministry reported the highly implausible results for more than 16 million voters,with results that fly in the face of logic, as reported by every informed professional I've been able to read.
We have no reason to fear calling a coup a coup. The Iranians aren't reading this blog anyway and the right wingers want to start a new war. After two days of reporting, there is plenty of proof of fraud. There is absolutely NO proof of legitimacy. We can't plan for the future if we deny the obvious before our eyes. Hesitate all you want. Don't expect to be congratulated for it.
BTW, irregularities in Ohio in 2004? That's so quaint!
Posted by DeminNewJ at June 14, 2009 06:43 AM