I suspect the Iranian people have finally caught on to Khamenei's long-term strategy of boiling the unsuspecting frog by turning the heat up so gradually it doesn't realize what's happening and so jump out of the pot. With the 'election,' Khamenei upped the dial just a bit too far, tipping his hand and suddenly Iranians are wondering whatever happened to their Islamic 'republic.'
Of course, it was never a republic at all; it was a theocracy with a dictator at the top whose idea of government was indistinguishable from the Shah's. The only difference was, the theocratic despotism was homegrown and not imposed by the West like the Shah was. Khamenei seems to have been caught off-guard by the reactions of the Iranian people, as were, apparently, the military and security forces.
The interesting question is whether the military and security forces that are not part of the theocrats' own forces can be persuaded to attack their own people. If they can be coopted, the revolution's over. If they can't, it could get REALLY interesting.
Posted by RAM at June 19, 2009 07:17 AMRAM, you hit the big questions about what happens tomorrow:
- Will the Iranian people show up in force tomorrow? (I think very likely yes)
- Will any of the security forces join them?
- If attacked, will the uprising dissipate or fight back?
The people of Iran have been very brave, but tomorrow will be very, very difficult.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at June 19, 2009 08:46 AMGuess that "investigation" of the election Khamenei ordered on Sunday(?) has already been completed---no problems! No need even to release the findings, ha-ha.
Seriously, the clerics and Rev Guards don't even think they need to follow their own script. They think the Iranians are either the dumbest people on earth or cowards. Great vision of their nation!
Good luck to the Iranians, they're gonna need it. Better hope for a little help from Allah....
Posted by euzoius at June 19, 2009 09:17 AMwhat happens tomorrow may be a landmark or land mine in the future of Iran and, for that matter, the Muslim world. It certainly appears that the theocratic leadership of the fake democracy intends to stay the course, through force if need be. But the real questions about the future in Iran will be answered in the Next Election....if indeed there is one.
Posted by T2 at June 19, 2009 09:41 AMHow is it that a religious leader can threaten the people he rules over? No truly spiritual person could ever do such a thing.
He is a fraud and he is no better than the most corrupt dictators.
Posted by Chris R at June 19, 2009 09:51 AMIf there is a revolution . . if . .
The neo-cons will be all over the place loudly proclaiming that they and GWB are to credit.
That's why ol' Shrub came out of the brush this week. He's setting the stage in case he and the bretheren need to do a curtain call.
Posted by idiosynchronic at June 19, 2009 09:54 AMI feel for their plight, and I wish the people of Iran peace and prosperity.
Posted by Ronk at June 19, 2009 09:55 AM“First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. Mahatma Gandhi.”
Khamenei's days are numbered.
We need to remember his rise to Supreme Leader was facilitated by Iran-Contra. They neo-cons just keep messing things up.
Posted by allansfca at June 19, 2009 10:08 AM"The street is the place of living and trading. Why are you taking to the streets? We have had the election...."
Allahu akbar, does EVERY authoritarian leader from Bush to Khamenei have to address "the people" as if they're all 5 year old?
What is it with worldwide "conservatism" and treating citizens like they're not-too-bright infants? I guess it's all just part of the "paternalist" pattern of authoritarianism.
Authoritarian Great Leaders always know what's best for you, just like Daddy.
Posted by euzoius at June 19, 2009 11:46 AMChris R:
A religious leader in Islam can issue a 'fatwa" to kill a person. Remember the fatwa against Salman Rushdi? So why it is surprizing that this theorocrat is any different?
Islam and Democracy are not compatible. Therefore nothing will come out of the present protests. Iran will remain as an Islamic state with limited freedom to its citizens, especially the women.
Posted by suresh at June 19, 2009 11:54 AM"How is it that a religious leader can threaten the people he rules over? No truly spiritual person could ever do such a thing." - Chris R.
With power brings corruption, and doubly so for Khamenei as both a political and spiritual leader.
Posted by CA Pol Junkie at June 19, 2009 02:05 PMIf only Americans had the same balls as those Iranian youth. I guess conditions in the US are just too cushy for too many. Perhaps going forward that impediment to street demonstrations against our own corp/gov will disappear as our standard of living contunues to decline.
For some back story on the Iranian post-election unrest that is not getting any attention in the corporate news, check out Flynt Leverett, Penn State University & New America Foundation
In his recent piece, "Ahmadinejad won. Get over it." Mr. Leverett looks at why the possibility of an Ahmadinejad win is possible. He goes on to discuss the future of U.S.- Iran relations.
The callers offer some particularly astute observations.
Posted by brisa at June 19, 2009 04:22 PM