Marc Erikson had a piece in the Asia Times discussing this issue;A failure of imagination. We are still fighting the last war so we have no plan for fighting this one.
Intelligence collection is no tidy business; it's an element of warfare. Analysis of raw intelligence data from a multiplicity of sources is not a timeless academic exercise in accordance with established scientific principles. It must reach actionable conclusions in timely fashion. Most important, intelligence undertakings must proceed from a well-defined strategic perspective and war plan and be executed with the attitude of Entschlossenheit (considered abandon) Carl von Clausewitz puts forth as the indispensable quality of the successful warrior.
Prior to September 11, 2001, US presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush had no strategy, no war plan against terrorists, no clear or distinct idea even of whom or what they were up against. It was a muddle, and no one in the US intelligence community knew either, or bothered to tell them if - per unlikely chance - they knew. That by itself is a signal failure of analysis and imagination - on a lesser scale played out on George Tenet's watch prior to May 1998 when, clear evidence to the contrary, no one in a position of authority at the CIA was prepared to believe that India would carry out a nuclear test.
Post-September 11, a strategy to cope with Islamist terrorists was developed, but it suffered from debilitating bifurcation in conception, communication, and execution. That the United States would go into Afghanistan, uproot al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime it had captured, and deprive Osama bin Laden of his safe-haven base was widely agreed and - with some hiccups - competently executed. But the wider strategic plan, to make war on Iraq and ultimately uproot the entire Islamist menace through a policy of "democratization" of the Middle East, though the certain undertaking of key policymakers in the Bush administration, was neither overtly put forth as policy nor communicated to most of those expected to carry it out. Instead, the excuse of alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was cooked up as casus belli for eliminating the regime of Saddam Hussein.
That's the best title I've seen in ages, maybe ever. A real Hesiod-level pun.
Posted by rod at July 26, 2004 12:00 AM"how come Al Qaeda hasn't hit us harder and more often"
Look at the effect the 9/11 hit had on the US. Completely scuttled our form of government allowing the fanatic right wing to take over (for now), sent us to war for no reason, turned the entire world against us. I mean, if you can accomplish all that with one attack, you don't need to attack too much.
Very interesting, Pessimist. While ignoring the fact that we have had no domestic attack in almost three years, you keep ratcheting up the standards for security. Which makes you entirely typical of the Democratic Party. How very much you would like to be proven right. And that is wrong.
Maybe Congress should abandon their campaigning this summer and return to Washington so that they can really "focus" on the Kean Commission's recommendations. Everyone can stay and have a good long "debate" about everything. Because if the President sticks around and works with this new task force that Card is heading up, how can Kerry and Edwards stay away? Shouldn't they be back in Washington doing their jobs?
If the American people think Kerry and Edwards are a couple of phoneys now, how much less effective will their lame-assed rhetoric be when it is deprived of backdrops and [adoring] crowds? Why, that would just suck if they had to share their hot-air time with 98 other stiffs, all trying to score points for themselves. Then again, they'd also have to share the spotlight with the Cowboy from Crawford, who would be there in the White House, making sure that everyone is properly involved in keeping America secure. I mean, how can we go on like this, pretending that we're safe when we could be so much safer?
Posted by Toby Petzold at July 26, 2004 12:20 PMT2:
Look at the effect the 9/11 hit had on the US. Completely scuttled our form of government allowing the fanatic right wing to take over (for now), sent us to war for no reason, turned the entire world against us. I mean, if you can accomplish all that with one attack, you don't need to attack too much.
Aren't you embarrassed to be possessed by such stupidity? Our form of government has been "completely scuttled"? That's not just hyperbole; it's a lie. A verifiable load of hysterical nonsense. If you're typical of the Democratic Party, and you are, this election should be easier for Bush than I've been thinking.
Posted by Toby Petzold at July 26, 2004 12:27 PMThe "special forces" are now becoming "contractors" to the highest bidder. They may soon disappear from the military altogether.
Posted by dave at July 26, 2004 01:17 PM